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MAX TEGMARK:
If we build artificial
general intelligence,

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00:00:51,747 --> 00:00:53,531
that'll be the biggest event

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00:00:53,575 --> 00:00:56,708
in the history
of life on Earth.

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00:00:56,752 --> 00:01:00,147
LOUIS ROSENBERG: Alien intelligence inside a computer system that

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00:01:00,190 --> 00:01:03,280
has control over the planet,
the day it arrives...

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00:01:03,324 --> 00:01:05,108
JAMES CAMERON:
And science fiction
books and movies

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00:01:05,152 --> 00:01:07,197
have set it up in advance.

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What's the problem?

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HAL: I think you know
what the problem is

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00:01:29,741 --> 00:01:31,134
just as well as I do.

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What are you
talking about, HAL?

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HAL: This mission
is too important

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for me to allow you
to jeopardize it.

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00:01:39,360 --> 00:01:42,363
I don't know what you're
talking about, HAL.

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KEIR DULLEA:
HAL, a super-intelligent
computer.

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00:01:46,018 --> 00:01:48,325
We'd call it AI today.

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00:01:49,544 --> 00:01:52,242
My character, Dave,
was the astronaut

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in one of the most prophetic
films ever made

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00:01:55,071 --> 00:01:57,378
about the threat
posed to humanity

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00:01:57,421 --> 00:01:59,423
by artificial intelligence.

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00:02:01,121 --> 00:02:03,166
HAL was science fiction.

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00:02:03,210 --> 00:02:06,996
But now, AI is all around us.

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00:02:07,039 --> 00:02:09,172
Artificial intelligence
isn't the future.

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00:02:09,216 --> 00:02:11,087
AI is already here.

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00:02:11,131 --> 00:02:12,915
This week a robot
ran for mayor

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in a small
Japanese town.

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00:02:14,221 --> 00:02:15,352
The White House says

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it is creating
a new task force

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to focus
on artificial intelligence.

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Google has already
announced plans

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to invest more in AI research.

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MALE NEWS ANCHOR: IBM sending an artificial intelligence robot into space.

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DULLEA:
Because of my small role
in the conversation,

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I understand
that we're on a journey,

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one that starts
with narrow AI.

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Machines that perform
specific tasks

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better than we can.

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But the AI of science fiction

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is artificial general
intelligence,

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machines that can
do everything

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better than us.

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Narrow AI is really

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like an idiot savant
to the extreme,

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00:02:57,264 --> 00:02:58,830
where it can do something,

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like multiply numbers
really fast,

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00:03:01,006 --> 00:03:02,617
way better than any human.

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00:03:02,660 --> 00:03:06,011
But it can't do
anything else whatsoever.

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00:03:06,055 --> 00:03:09,928
But AGI, artificial
general intelligence,

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00:03:09,972 --> 00:03:12,453
which doesn't exist yet,
is instead

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00:03:12,496 --> 00:03:14,629
intelligence
that can do everything

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as well as humans can.

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DULLEA: So what happens
if we do create AGI?

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00:03:25,248 --> 00:03:27,294
Science fiction authors
have warned us

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it could be dangerous.

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And they're not the only ones.

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ELON MUSK: I think people should be concerned about it.

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AI is a fundamental risk

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to the existence
of human civilization.

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00:03:39,393 --> 00:03:42,178
And I don't think people
fully appreciate that.

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00:03:42,222 --> 00:03:43,919
I do think we have to
worry about it.

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00:03:43,962 --> 00:03:45,225
I don't think it's inherent

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as we create
super intelligence

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that it will
necessarily always

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00:03:49,577 --> 00:03:51,927
have the same goals in mind
that we do.

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I think the development

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00:03:53,276 --> 00:03:55,713
of full
artificial intelligence

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could spell the end
of the human race.

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[ECHOING]
...the end of the human race.

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00:04:01,893 --> 00:04:05,201
Tomorrow, if the headline said
an artificial intelligence

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00:04:05,245 --> 00:04:08,248
has been manufactured
that's as intelligent

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00:04:08,291 --> 00:04:10,293
or more intelligent
than human beings,

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00:04:10,337 --> 00:04:12,077
people would argue about it,
but I don't think

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00:04:12,121 --> 00:04:13,992
they'd be surprised,
because science fiction

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00:04:14,036 --> 00:04:15,907
has helped us imagine all kinds

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of unimaginable things.

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DULLEA: Experts are divided
about the impact

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00:04:23,437 --> 00:04:25,613
AI will have on our future,

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00:04:25,656 --> 00:04:29,747
and whether or not Hollywood
is helping us plan for it.

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00:04:29,791 --> 00:04:32,750
OREN ETZIONI: Our dialogue
has really been hijacked
by Hollywood

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00:04:32,794 --> 00:04:35,927
because The Terminator
makes a better blockbuster

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00:04:35,971 --> 00:04:38,147
than AI being good,

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00:04:38,190 --> 00:04:39,409
or AI being neutral,

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00:04:39,453 --> 00:04:41,063
or AI being confused.

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00:04:41,106 --> 00:04:42,456
Technology here in AI

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00:04:42,499 --> 00:04:44,501
is no different.
It's a tool.

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00:04:44,545 --> 00:04:47,156
I like to think of it
as a fancy pencil.

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00:04:47,199 --> 00:04:49,593
And so what pictures
we draw with it,

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00:04:49,637 --> 00:04:52,248
that's up to us as a society.

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00:04:52,292 --> 00:04:55,251
We don't have to do
what AI tells us.

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00:04:55,295 --> 00:04:56,861
We tell AI what to do.

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00:04:56,905 --> 00:04:58,602
[BEEPING]

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00:04:58,646 --> 00:05:00,300
DAVID MALONE: I think
Hollywood films

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00:05:00,343 --> 00:05:02,214
do help the conversation.

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00:05:02,258 --> 00:05:03,781
Someone needs to be thinking

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00:05:03,825 --> 00:05:07,089
ahead of what
the consequences are.

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00:05:07,132 --> 00:05:08,786
But just as we can't
really imagine

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00:05:08,830 --> 00:05:11,311
what the actual science
of the future
is going to be like,

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00:05:11,354 --> 00:05:13,400
I don't think we've begun

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00:05:13,443 --> 00:05:16,316
to really think about
all of the possible futures,

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00:05:16,359 --> 00:05:19,188
which logically spring out
of this technology.

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00:05:19,231 --> 00:05:23,497
MALE REPORTER:
Artificial intelligence has
the power to change society.

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00:05:23,540 --> 00:05:25,499
A growing chorus
of criticism

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00:05:25,542 --> 00:05:27,283
is highlighting the dangers

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00:05:27,327 --> 00:05:29,416
of handing control
to machines.

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00:05:29,459 --> 00:05:31,331
There's gonna be
a lot of change coming.

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00:05:31,374 --> 00:05:32,897
The larger long-term concern

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00:05:32,941 --> 00:05:35,639
is that humanity will be
sort of shunted aside.

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NEWS ANCHOR:
This is something
Stanley Kubrick and others

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00:05:37,641 --> 00:05:39,469
were worried about
50 years ago, right?

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DULLEA: It's happening.

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00:05:43,691 --> 00:05:47,608
How do we gauge the urgency
of this conversation?

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00:05:49,436 --> 00:05:51,742
ROSENBERG: If people saw on radar right now

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00:05:51,786 --> 00:05:54,179
that an alien spaceship
was approaching Earth

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00:05:54,223 --> 00:05:56,181
and it was 25 years away,

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00:05:56,225 --> 00:05:57,835
we would be mobilized
to prepare

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00:05:57,879 --> 00:06:00,621
for that alien's arrival
25 years from now.

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00:06:00,664 --> 00:06:03,058
But that's exactly
the situation that we're in

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00:06:03,101 --> 00:06:04,799
with artificial intelligence.

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00:06:04,842 --> 00:06:06,670
Could be 25 years, could be 50 years,

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00:06:06,714 --> 00:06:09,456
but an alien intelligence will arrive

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00:06:09,499 --> 00:06:11,109
and we should be prepared.

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00:06:14,286 --> 00:06:16,637
MAN:
Well, gentlemen, meet Tobor.

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00:06:16,680 --> 00:06:19,379
An electronic simulacrum
of a man.

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00:06:19,422 --> 00:06:21,772
Oh, gosh. Oh, gee willikers.

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00:06:21,816 --> 00:06:24,645
Even though much work remains
before he is completed,

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00:06:24,688 --> 00:06:26,211
he is already
a sentient being.

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00:06:26,255 --> 00:06:28,344
[MURMURING]

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00:06:28,388 --> 00:06:30,390
RODNEY BROOKS:
Back in 1956 when the term

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00:06:30,433 --> 00:06:32,696
artificial intelligence
first came about,

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00:06:32,740 --> 00:06:35,395
the original goals
of artificial intelligence

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00:06:35,438 --> 00:06:37,701
were human-level intelligence.

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00:06:37,745 --> 00:06:41,052
He does look almost kind,
doesn't he?[BEEPING]

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00:06:41,096 --> 00:06:43,838
BROOKS: Over time that's proved to be really difficult.

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00:06:46,449 --> 00:06:49,626
I think, eventually,
we will have human-level

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00:06:49,670 --> 00:06:51,889
intelligence from machines.

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00:06:51,933 --> 00:06:55,153
But it may be
a few hundred years.
It's gonna take a while.

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00:06:55,197 --> 00:06:57,634
And so people are getting
a little over-excited

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00:06:57,678 --> 00:06:59,854
about the future capabilities.

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00:06:59,897 --> 00:07:03,945
And now, Elektro,
I command you to walk back.

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00:07:04,293 --> 00:07:05,425
Back.

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00:07:08,297 --> 00:07:09,559
MALONE:
Almost every generation,

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00:07:09,603 --> 00:07:11,169
people have got
so enthusiastic.

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00:07:11,213 --> 00:07:12,736
They watch 2001,

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00:07:12,780 --> 00:07:14,564
they fall in love with HAL,
they think,

145
00:07:14,608 --> 00:07:16,871
"Yeah, give me six weeks.
I'll get this sorted."

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00:07:17,785 --> 00:07:19,830
It doesn't happen and everyone gets upset.

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DULLEA:
So what's changed
in AI research?

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00:07:26,489 --> 00:07:28,839
MALONE: The difference with the AI we have today

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00:07:28,883 --> 00:07:32,495
and the reason AI suddenly took this big leap forward

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00:07:32,539 --> 00:07:34,758
is the Internet.
That is their world.

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00:07:34,802 --> 00:07:37,587
Tonight the information
superhighway,

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00:07:37,631 --> 00:07:39,415
and one of its main
thoroughfares,

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00:07:39,459 --> 00:07:42,505
an online network
called Internet.

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00:07:42,549 --> 00:07:45,421
MALE REPORTER: In 1981,
only 213 computers

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00:07:45,465 --> 00:07:46,901
were hooked to the Internet.

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00:07:46,944 --> 00:07:48,816
As the new year begins,
an estimated

157
00:07:48,859 --> 00:07:50,600
two-and-a-half million
computers

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00:07:50,644 --> 00:07:51,993
will be on the network.

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00:07:53,516 --> 00:07:55,126
AIs need to eat.

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00:07:55,170 --> 00:07:57,346
Just like sheep need grass,

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00:07:57,389 --> 00:07:59,087
AIs need data.

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00:07:59,130 --> 00:08:02,525
And the great prairies of data
are on the Internet.

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00:08:03,134 --> 00:08:04,484
That's what it is.

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00:08:05,136 --> 00:08:06,181
They said, "You know what?

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00:08:06,224 --> 00:08:07,661
"Let's just let them loose out there."

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00:08:09,532 --> 00:08:11,839
And suddenly,
the AIs came to life.

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FEMALE REPORTER: Imagine
thousands of talking robots

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00:08:14,319 --> 00:08:15,973
able to move as one unit,

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00:08:16,017 --> 00:08:17,322
taking on crime, fires,

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00:08:17,366 --> 00:08:18,976
and natural disasters.

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00:08:19,020 --> 00:08:21,805
Artificial intelligence
platform Amper

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00:08:21,849 --> 00:08:24,416
has created the first album
entirely composed

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00:08:24,460 --> 00:08:26,157
and produced
by artificial intelligence.

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00:08:26,201 --> 00:08:29,552
Next week, Christie's will be
the first auction house

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00:08:29,596 --> 00:08:33,251
to offer artwork created
by artificial intelligence.

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00:08:34,165 --> 00:08:35,819
Driverless cars, said to be

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00:08:35,863 --> 00:08:38,648
in our not-so-distant future.

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DULLEA: So even though
we don't have AGI

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00:08:40,998 --> 00:08:44,262
or human-level
intelligence yet,

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00:08:44,306 --> 00:08:45,699
are we ready to give autonomy

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00:08:45,742 --> 00:08:48,440
to the machines we do have?

182
00:08:48,484 --> 00:08:51,574
Should self-driving cars
make ethical decisions?

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00:08:51,618 --> 00:08:53,881
That is the growing debate
as the technology

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00:08:53,924 --> 00:08:56,318
moves closer towards
mainstream reality.

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MARY CUMMINGS: This idea
of whether or not

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00:08:59,887 --> 00:09:02,846
we can embed ethics
into machines,

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00:09:02,890 --> 00:09:04,544
whether or not they are
automated machines

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00:09:04,587 --> 00:09:06,415
or autonomous machines,

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00:09:06,458 --> 00:09:08,286
I'm not sure
we've got that figured out.

190
00:09:08,330 --> 00:09:09,723
If you have
a self-driving car,

191
00:09:09,766 --> 00:09:11,202
it's gonna have to make
ethical decisions.

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00:09:11,246 --> 00:09:14,641
A classic one people have been
thinking a lot about is...

193
00:09:14,684 --> 00:09:16,556
I don't know if you've heard
of trolley problems.

194
00:09:16,599 --> 00:09:18,122
The trolley problem.The trolley problem.

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00:09:18,166 --> 00:09:20,211
The trolley problem.The trolley problem.

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00:09:21,604 --> 00:09:22,823
CUMMINGS:
In the trolley problem,

197
00:09:22,866 --> 00:09:24,172
whether or not
a driverless car

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00:09:24,215 --> 00:09:26,870
is going to save the driver
or run over

199
00:09:26,914 --> 00:09:29,046
a group of school children
crossing the road.

200
00:09:29,090 --> 00:09:31,614
ETZIONI: Will the car
go right and hit the old lady

201
00:09:31,658 --> 00:09:35,575
or will it go left and kill
the four young people?

202
00:09:35,618 --> 00:09:39,143
MICHAL KOSINSKI:
Either kill five people
standing on a bus stop

203
00:09:39,187 --> 00:09:40,405
or kill yourself.

204
00:09:40,449 --> 00:09:41,972
It's an ethical decision

205
00:09:42,016 --> 00:09:43,931
that has to be made
in the moment,

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00:09:43,974 --> 00:09:46,020
too fast for any person
to get in there.

207
00:09:46,063 --> 00:09:48,544
So it's the software
in your self-driving car

208
00:09:48,588 --> 00:09:50,546
that's gonna make
that ethical decision.

209
00:09:50,590 --> 00:09:51,852
Who decides that?

210
00:09:52,679 --> 00:09:53,897
KOSINSKI:
Smart society,

211
00:09:53,941 --> 00:09:55,899
society that
values human life,

212
00:09:55,943 --> 00:09:58,336
should make a decision that

213
00:09:58,380 --> 00:10:02,427
killing one person
is preferable
to killing five people.

214
00:10:02,471 --> 00:10:06,344
Of course,
it does raise the question
who's gonna buy that car.

215
00:10:06,388 --> 00:10:09,130
Or, you know, are you gonna
buy the car where actually,

216
00:10:09,173 --> 00:10:11,654
[WHISPERS] it'll swerve
and you'll be fine,

217
00:10:11,698 --> 00:10:13,134
but they're goners.

218
00:10:14,918 --> 00:10:17,442
ETZIONI: There are hundreds
of those kinds of questions

219
00:10:17,486 --> 00:10:19,140
all throughout society.

220
00:10:19,183 --> 00:10:22,883
And so, ethical philosophers
battle back and forth.

221
00:10:25,146 --> 00:10:27,583
ETZIONI: My peeve with
the philosophers is

222
00:10:27,627 --> 00:10:30,804
they're sucking the oxygen
out of the room.

223
00:10:30,847 --> 00:10:33,763
There's this metaphor
that I have of

224
00:10:33,807 --> 00:10:37,114
you have a car
driving away from a wedding,

225
00:10:37,158 --> 00:10:41,205
and the car is driving,
and behind it there are cans.

226
00:10:41,249 --> 00:10:45,645
And the metal cans are
clanking and making noise.

227
00:10:45,688 --> 00:10:47,690
That car is science

228
00:10:47,734 --> 00:10:50,345
and technology
driving forward decisively.

229
00:10:50,388 --> 00:10:51,955
And the metal cans clanking

230
00:10:51,999 --> 00:10:54,697
are the philosophers
making a lot of noise.

231
00:10:54,741 --> 00:10:56,525
The world is changing
in such a way

232
00:10:56,568 --> 00:11:01,138
that the question of us
building machines

233
00:11:01,182 --> 00:11:04,098
that could become
more intelligent than we are

234
00:11:04,141 --> 00:11:07,710
is more of a reality than a fiction right now.

235
00:11:10,147 --> 00:11:12,759
DULLEA: Don't we
have to ask questions now,

236
00:11:12,802 --> 00:11:15,805
before the machines
get smarter than us?

237
00:11:15,849 --> 00:11:18,373
I mean, what if they
achieve consciousness?

238
00:11:19,635 --> 00:11:21,463
How far away is that?

239
00:11:25,075 --> 00:11:26,816
How close we are
to a conscious machine?

240
00:11:26,860 --> 00:11:28,688
That is the question
that brings

241
00:11:28,731 --> 00:11:32,082
philosophers and scientists
to blows, I think.

242
00:11:32,126 --> 00:11:34,302
You are dead center

243
00:11:34,345 --> 00:11:37,871
of the greatest
scientific event
in the history of man.

244
00:11:37,914 --> 00:11:39,699
If you've created
a conscious machine,

245
00:11:39,742 --> 00:11:41,309
it's not the history of man.

246
00:11:42,614 --> 00:11:44,834
That's the history of gods.

247
00:11:44,878 --> 00:11:48,533
The problem with consciousness
is hardly anybody

248
00:11:48,577 --> 00:11:50,884
can define exactly what it is.

249
00:11:53,408 --> 00:11:55,976
DULLEA: Is it consciousness
that makes us special?

250
00:11:57,586 --> 00:11:58,718
Human?

251
00:12:00,894 --> 00:12:03,026
MALONE: A way of thinking
about consciousness

252
00:12:03,070 --> 00:12:05,159
which a lot of people
will agree with...

253
00:12:05,202 --> 00:12:07,857
You'll never find something that appeals to everyone.

254
00:12:07,901 --> 00:12:10,468
...is it's not just
flashing lights,
but someone's home.

255
00:12:11,252 --> 00:12:13,036
So if you have a...

256
00:12:13,080 --> 00:12:15,386
If you bought
one of those little

257
00:12:15,430 --> 00:12:16,953
simple chess-playing machines,

258
00:12:17,606 --> 00:12:19,173
it might beat you at chess.

259
00:12:19,216 --> 00:12:21,218
There are
lots of lights flashing.

260
00:12:21,262 --> 00:12:23,743
But there's nobody in
when it wins,

261
00:12:23,786 --> 00:12:25,222
going "I won."

262
00:12:25,962 --> 00:12:29,749
All right?
Whereas your dog

263
00:12:29,792 --> 00:12:32,534
is a rubbish chess player,

264
00:12:32,577 --> 00:12:33,927
but you look at the dog
and you think,

265
00:12:33,970 --> 00:12:36,930
"Someone's actually in.
It's not just a mechanism."

266
00:12:38,845 --> 00:12:42,283
People wonder whether general intelligence

267
00:12:42,326 --> 00:12:44,459
requires consciousness.

268
00:12:46,766 --> 00:12:50,160
It might partly depend on what
level of general intelligence
you're talking about.

269
00:12:50,204 --> 00:12:53,250
A mouse has some kind
of general intelligence.

270
00:12:53,294 --> 00:12:55,339
My guess is, if you've got
a machine which has

271
00:12:55,383 --> 00:12:58,473
general intelligence
at the level of,
say, a mouse or beyond,

272
00:12:58,516 --> 00:13:00,997
it's gonna be a good contender for having consciousness.

273
00:13:04,653 --> 00:13:05,697
SAM HARRIS: We're not there yet.

274
00:13:05,741 --> 00:13:07,787
We're not confronted by humanoid robots

275
00:13:07,830 --> 00:13:09,832
that are smarter than we are.

276
00:13:09,876 --> 00:13:12,182
We're in this
curious ethical position

277
00:13:12,226 --> 00:13:15,446
of not knowing where and how
consciousness emerges,

278
00:13:15,490 --> 00:13:18,841
and we're building
increasingly complicated
minds.

279
00:13:18,885 --> 00:13:20,800
We won't know whether
or not they're conscious,

280
00:13:20,843 --> 00:13:22,062
but we might feel they are.

281
00:13:24,194 --> 00:13:26,718
MALONE: The easiest example
is if you programmed

282
00:13:26,762 --> 00:13:29,634
into a computer everything you knew about joy,

283
00:13:29,678 --> 00:13:31,201
every reference in literature,

284
00:13:31,245 --> 00:13:33,943
every definition,
every chemical compound

285
00:13:33,987 --> 00:13:36,119
that's involved with joy
in the human brain,

286
00:13:36,163 --> 00:13:39,644
and you put all of that
information in a computer,

287
00:13:39,688 --> 00:13:42,778
you could argue
that it understood joy.

288
00:13:42,822 --> 00:13:45,476
The question is,
had it ever felt joy?

289
00:13:51,613 --> 00:13:53,354
DULLEA: Did HAL have emotions?

290
00:13:55,095 --> 00:13:58,228
Will AIs ever feel
the way we do?

291
00:13:59,882 --> 00:14:02,406
MICHAEL LITTMAN:
It's very hard to get
machines to do the things

292
00:14:02,450 --> 00:14:06,149
that we don't think about,
that we're not conscious of.

293
00:14:06,193 --> 00:14:09,326
Things like detecting
that that person over there

294
00:14:09,370 --> 00:14:11,198
is really unhappy
with the way that...

295
00:14:11,241 --> 00:14:12,721
Something about
what I'm doing.

296
00:14:12,764 --> 00:14:14,027
And they're sending
a subtle signal

297
00:14:14,070 --> 00:14:15,506
and I probably
should change what I'm doing.

298
00:14:17,334 --> 00:14:18,988
We don't know how to build
machines that can actually be

299
00:14:19,032 --> 00:14:22,252
tuned in to those kinds
of tiny little social cues.

300
00:14:24,994 --> 00:14:28,389
There's this notion that maybe
there is something magical

301
00:14:28,432 --> 00:14:30,434
about brains,

302
00:14:30,478 --> 00:14:32,045
about the wetware
of having

303
00:14:32,088 --> 00:14:33,785
an information
processing system

304
00:14:33,829 --> 00:14:34,917
made of meat, right?

305
00:14:34,961 --> 00:14:37,311
And that whatever we do
in our machines,

306
00:14:37,354 --> 00:14:40,705
however competent
they begin to seem,

307
00:14:40,749 --> 00:14:42,272
they never really
will be intelligent

308
00:14:42,316 --> 00:14:44,579
in the way that we experience
ourselves to be.

309
00:14:46,233 --> 00:14:48,975
There's really no basis for that.

310
00:14:51,238 --> 00:14:53,240
TEGMARK: This silly idea
you can't be intelligent

311
00:14:53,283 --> 00:14:55,155
unless you're made of meat.

312
00:14:56,765 --> 00:14:58,201
From my perspective,
as a physicist,

313
00:14:58,245 --> 00:15:00,682
that's just carbon chauvinism.

314
00:15:00,725 --> 00:15:02,118
Those machines
are made of exactly

315
00:15:02,162 --> 00:15:03,903
the same kind of
elementary particles

316
00:15:03,946 --> 00:15:05,382
that my brain is made out of.

317
00:15:06,775 --> 00:15:08,429
Intelligence is just
a certain...

318
00:15:08,472 --> 00:15:10,170
And consciousness is just

319
00:15:10,213 --> 00:15:12,259
a certain kind of information processing.

320
00:15:15,262 --> 00:15:17,655
DULLEA: Maybe we're not
so special after all.

321
00:15:19,744 --> 00:15:21,268
Could our carbon-based brains

322
00:15:21,311 --> 00:15:23,531
be replicated with silicon?

323
00:15:25,185 --> 00:15:28,405
We're trying to build
a computer-generated baby

324
00:15:28,449 --> 00:15:31,060
that we can teach
like a real baby,

325
00:15:31,104 --> 00:15:34,237
with the potential for general intelligence.

326
00:15:39,808 --> 00:15:42,550
To do that, you really
have to build
a computer brain.

327
00:15:46,162 --> 00:15:50,645
I wanted to build a simple toy brain model

328
00:15:52,168 --> 00:15:53,474
in an embodied system

329
00:15:53,517 --> 00:15:56,694
which you could interact with
face-to-face.

330
00:16:00,394 --> 00:16:03,527
And I happen to have an infant at home,

331
00:16:03,571 --> 00:16:04,964
a real baby.

332
00:16:05,660 --> 00:16:07,836
And I scanned the baby

333
00:16:07,879 --> 00:16:10,795
so I could build a 3D model out of her

334
00:16:10,839 --> 00:16:12,493
and then use her face

335
00:16:12,536 --> 00:16:15,452
as basically the embodiment
of the system.

336
00:16:17,063 --> 00:16:20,109
If a brain which is made out of cells,

337
00:16:20,153 --> 00:16:23,199
and it's got blood pumping, is able to think,

338
00:16:24,461 --> 00:16:27,682
it just may be possible
that a computer can think

339
00:16:28,770 --> 00:16:33,166
if the information is moving in the same sort of process.

340
00:16:37,474 --> 00:16:39,476
SAGAR: A lot of
artificial intelligence
at the moment today

341
00:16:39,520 --> 00:16:42,044
is really about
advanced pattern recognition.

342
00:16:42,088 --> 00:16:44,003
It's not about killer robots

343
00:16:44,046 --> 00:16:45,830
that are gonna take over
the world, et cetera.

344
00:16:45,874 --> 00:16:47,658
[AUDIENCE LAUGHING]

345
00:16:47,702 --> 00:16:51,053
So this is Baby X.
She's running live
on my computer.

346
00:16:51,097 --> 00:16:54,056
So as I move my hand around,
make a loud noise,

347
00:16:54,100 --> 00:16:55,710
[CLAPS]
she'll get a fright.

348
00:16:55,753 --> 00:16:57,407
We can kind of zoom in.

349
00:16:57,451 --> 00:17:00,845
So she basically can see me
and hear me, you know.

350
00:17:00,889 --> 00:17:03,022
Hey, sweetheart.[AUDIENCE LAUGHING]

351
00:17:03,065 --> 00:17:05,067
She's not copying my smile,

352
00:17:05,111 --> 00:17:07,417
she's responding to my smile.

353
00:17:08,114 --> 00:17:09,637
So she's responding to me

354
00:17:09,680 --> 00:17:12,205
and we're really concerned
with the question

355
00:17:12,248 --> 00:17:14,207
of how will we
actually interact

356
00:17:14,250 --> 00:17:16,644
with artificial intelligence
in the future.

357
00:17:17,688 --> 00:17:19,995
Ah...

358
00:17:20,039 --> 00:17:23,520
When I'm talking to Baby X,
I'm deliberately
modulating my voice

359
00:17:23,564 --> 00:17:25,740
and deliberately doing big facial expressions.

360
00:17:25,783 --> 00:17:27,350
I'm going "Ooh,"
all this stuff

361
00:17:27,394 --> 00:17:29,309
because I'm getting
her attention.

362
00:17:29,744 --> 00:17:31,572
Ooh.

363
00:17:32,834 --> 00:17:34,749
And now that I've got her attention,

364
00:17:35,793 --> 00:17:37,012
I can teach something.

365
00:17:37,056 --> 00:17:38,579
Okay, so here's Baby X,

366
00:17:38,622 --> 00:17:41,973
and this is... She's been
learning to read words.

367
00:17:42,017 --> 00:17:43,758
So here's
her first word book.

368
00:17:43,801 --> 00:17:47,370
So let's see what
she can see.
Turn to a page...

369
00:17:47,414 --> 00:17:49,329
And here we go.
Let's see what she...

370
00:17:49,372 --> 00:17:51,679
What's this, Baby?
What's this? What's this?

371
00:17:52,245 --> 00:17:54,160
What's this? Sheep.

372
00:17:54,203 --> 00:17:56,336
Good girl.
Now see if she knows
what the word is.

373
00:17:56,379 --> 00:17:58,207
Okay.
Baby, look over here.

374
00:17:58,251 --> 00:18:00,079
Off you go.
What's this? What's this?

375
00:18:01,776 --> 00:18:03,952
Sheep.Good girl.

376
00:18:03,995 --> 00:18:05,606
Let's try her
on something else.

377
00:18:05,649 --> 00:18:07,216
Okay.

378
00:18:07,260 --> 00:18:08,826
[WHISPERS] Let's try on that.
[NORMAL VOICE] What's this?

379
00:18:08,870 --> 00:18:10,437
Baby, Baby, over here.
What's this?

380
00:18:15,268 --> 00:18:17,618
Baby. Look at me.
Look at me. What's this?

381
00:18:17,661 --> 00:18:19,402
Baby, over here.
Over here.

382
00:18:20,708 --> 00:18:22,927
Puppy.Good girl.

383
00:18:22,971 --> 00:18:24,233
That's what
she's just read.

384
00:18:24,277 --> 00:18:26,148
Ooh.[LAUGHS]

385
00:18:26,192 --> 00:18:28,411
The most intelligent system

386
00:18:28,455 --> 00:18:30,805
that we're aware of
is a human.

387
00:18:32,198 --> 00:18:35,114
So using the human
as a template,

388
00:18:35,157 --> 00:18:37,333
as the embodiment of Baby X,

389
00:18:37,377 --> 00:18:39,509
is probably the best way
to try

390
00:18:39,553 --> 00:18:41,337
to achieve
general intelligence.

391
00:18:48,170 --> 00:18:49,650
DULLEA: She seems so human.

392
00:18:51,304 --> 00:18:53,349
Is this the child
who takes our hand

393
00:18:53,393 --> 00:18:55,699
and leads us to HAL?

394
00:18:57,484 --> 00:19:00,922
ANDY CLARK:
Whether it's in a real world
or a virtual world,

395
00:19:00,965 --> 00:19:02,358
I do think embodiment

396
00:19:02,402 --> 00:19:05,492
is gonna be
very crucial here.

397
00:19:05,535 --> 00:19:07,885
Because I think that
general intelligence

398
00:19:07,929 --> 00:19:10,888
is tied up with being able
to act in the world.

399
00:19:13,108 --> 00:19:14,805
You have to have something,

400
00:19:14,849 --> 00:19:16,633
arms, legs, eyes,

401
00:19:16,677 --> 00:19:18,461
something that you can
move around

402
00:19:18,505 --> 00:19:21,682
in order to harvest
new information.

403
00:19:26,513 --> 00:19:28,906
So I think to get systems
that really understand

404
00:19:28,950 --> 00:19:30,647
what they're talking about,

405
00:19:30,691 --> 00:19:32,997
you will need systems
that can act

406
00:19:33,041 --> 00:19:34,564
and intervene in the world,

407
00:19:34,608 --> 00:19:36,827
and possibly systems
that have something

408
00:19:36,871 --> 00:19:39,308
almost like a social life.

409
00:19:39,352 --> 00:19:43,007
For me, thinking and feeling
will come together.

410
00:19:43,051 --> 00:19:44,574
And they will come together

411
00:19:44,618 --> 00:19:47,534
because of the importance
of embodiment.

412
00:19:52,539 --> 00:19:53,975
The stories that
we tell ourselves

413
00:19:54,018 --> 00:19:56,325
open up arenas
for discussion,

414
00:19:56,369 --> 00:19:58,109
and they also help us
think about things.

415
00:19:58,153 --> 00:19:59,415
Ava!

416
00:20:02,592 --> 00:20:04,377
BRYAN JOHNSON:
The most dominant story...

417
00:20:04,420 --> 00:20:05,769
Go back to your room.

418
00:20:05,813 --> 00:20:07,684
...is AI is scary.

419
00:20:07,728 --> 00:20:09,991
There's a bad guy,
there's a good guy...

420
00:20:12,123 --> 00:20:14,822
That is
a non-productive storyline.

421
00:20:14,865 --> 00:20:15,866
Stop!

422
00:20:16,954 --> 00:20:18,608
Ava, I said stop!

423
00:20:20,784 --> 00:20:22,656
Whoa! Whoa! Whoa!

424
00:20:22,699 --> 00:20:27,269
The reality is AI is
remarkably useful to us.

425
00:20:27,313 --> 00:20:30,838
MALE REPORTER: Robot surgeons are increasingly used in NHS hospitals.

426
00:20:30,881 --> 00:20:33,623
They don't get tired,
their hands don't tremble,

427
00:20:33,667 --> 00:20:36,060
and their patients
make a faster recovery.

428
00:20:36,104 --> 00:20:38,672
MAN: It alerted me that
there was one animal in heat.

429
00:20:38,715 --> 00:20:41,065
She was ready to be bred,
and three animals that

430
00:20:41,109 --> 00:20:42,806
may have
a potential health problem.

431
00:20:42,850 --> 00:20:45,548
MAN: A Facebook program
can detect suicidal behavior

432
00:20:45,592 --> 00:20:47,681
by analyzing user information,

433
00:20:47,724 --> 00:20:50,074
and Facebook CEO
Mark Zuckerberg believes

434
00:20:50,118 --> 00:20:52,425
this is just the beginning.

435
00:20:52,468 --> 00:20:55,036
MAN 2: Here is someone
who has visual impairment

436
00:20:55,079 --> 00:20:57,386
being able to see
because of AI.

437
00:20:57,430 --> 00:21:00,128
Those are the benefits
of what AI does.

438
00:21:00,171 --> 00:21:01,738
Diagnose cancer earlier.

439
00:21:01,782 --> 00:21:03,174
Predict heart disease.

440
00:21:03,218 --> 00:21:05,481
MAN: But the revolution
has only just begun.

441
00:21:06,917 --> 00:21:08,397
AI is.

442
00:21:08,441 --> 00:21:10,617
It's happening.
And so it is a question

443
00:21:10,660 --> 00:21:13,533
of what we do with it,
how we build it.

444
00:21:13,576 --> 00:21:15,665
That's the only question
that matters. And I think,

445
00:21:15,709 --> 00:21:19,060
we potentially are at risk
of ruining that

446
00:21:19,103 --> 00:21:20,453
by having this
knee-jerk reaction

447
00:21:20,496 --> 00:21:22,672
that AI is bad
and it's coming to get us.

448
00:21:25,196 --> 00:21:27,155
DULLEA:
So just like my astronaut,

449
00:21:27,198 --> 00:21:28,461
we're on a journey.

450
00:21:29,200 --> 00:21:31,638
Narrow AI is already here.

451
00:21:32,421 --> 00:21:35,294
But how far are we from AGI?

452
00:21:36,425 --> 00:21:39,210
And how fast are we going?

453
00:21:39,254 --> 00:21:40,603
JURGEN SCHMIDHUBER:
Every five years,

454
00:21:40,647 --> 00:21:43,214
computers are getting
ten times faster.

455
00:21:43,258 --> 00:21:45,216
At the moment,
we don't have yet

456
00:21:45,260 --> 00:21:48,263
little devices,
computational devices,

457
00:21:48,307 --> 00:21:51,484
that can compute
as much as a human brain.

458
00:21:51,527 --> 00:21:52,702
But every five years,

459
00:21:52,746 --> 00:21:55,575
computers are getting
ten times cheaper,

460
00:21:55,618 --> 00:21:57,925
which means that soon
we are going to have that.

461
00:21:57,968 --> 00:22:01,189
And once we have that,
then 50 years later,

462
00:22:01,232 --> 00:22:02,451
if the trend doesn't break,

463
00:22:02,495 --> 00:22:04,801
we should have
for the same price

464
00:22:04,845 --> 00:22:07,630
little computational devices
that can compute

465
00:22:07,674 --> 00:22:10,329
as much as
all ten billion brains

466
00:22:10,372 --> 00:22:11,808
of humankind together.

467
00:22:14,202 --> 00:22:15,551
DULLEA: It's catching up.

468
00:22:16,770 --> 00:22:20,034
What happens
if it passes us by?

469
00:22:20,077 --> 00:22:23,342
Now a robot
that's been developed
by a Japanese scientist

470
00:22:23,385 --> 00:22:25,387
is so fast, it can win

471
00:22:25,431 --> 00:22:27,346
the rock-paper-scissors game
against a human

472
00:22:27,389 --> 00:22:29,130
every single time.

473
00:22:29,173 --> 00:22:31,175
The presumption has to be that

474
00:22:31,219 --> 00:22:33,177
when an artificial
intelligence

475
00:22:33,221 --> 00:22:35,266
reaches human intelligence,

476
00:22:35,310 --> 00:22:38,008
it will very quickly
exceed human intelligence,

477
00:22:38,052 --> 00:22:39,227
and once that happens,

478
00:22:39,270 --> 00:22:41,272
it doesn't even
need us anymore

479
00:22:41,316 --> 00:22:43,884
to make it smarter.
It can make itself smarter.

480
00:22:46,408 --> 00:22:49,455
MALONE: You create AIs
which are better than us

481
00:22:49,498 --> 00:22:50,586
at a lot of things.

482
00:22:50,630 --> 00:22:52,545
And one of the things
they get better at

483
00:22:52,588 --> 00:22:54,373
is programming computers.

484
00:22:54,416 --> 00:22:56,113
So it reprograms itself.

485
00:22:56,157 --> 00:22:57,898
And it is now
better than it was,

486
00:22:57,941 --> 00:23:01,380
which means it's now
better than it was
at reprogramming.

487
00:23:02,729 --> 00:23:05,384
So it doesn't
get better like that.

488
00:23:06,123 --> 00:23:07,690
It gets better like that.

489
00:23:09,562 --> 00:23:11,172
ROSENBERG:
And we get left behind

490
00:23:11,215 --> 00:23:13,304
as it keeps getting faster,

491
00:23:13,348 --> 00:23:15,872
evolving at
an exponential rate.

492
00:23:15,916 --> 00:23:18,005
That's this event
that a lot of researchers

493
00:23:18,048 --> 00:23:19,746
refer to as the singularity.

494
00:23:21,965 --> 00:23:23,706
And it will get beyond

495
00:23:23,750 --> 00:23:26,405
where we are competitive
very quickly.

496
00:23:26,448 --> 00:23:29,625
So think about someone
not having a PhD in one area,

497
00:23:29,669 --> 00:23:32,280
but having it
in every conceivable area.

498
00:23:32,323 --> 00:23:34,413
You can't figure out
what they're doing.

499
00:23:34,456 --> 00:23:36,806
They can do things
no one else is capable of.

500
00:23:39,461 --> 00:23:40,854
HARRIS: Just imagine
what it would be like

501
00:23:40,897 --> 00:23:43,247
to be in dialogue
with another person

502
00:23:43,291 --> 00:23:44,814
running on a time course

503
00:23:44,858 --> 00:23:48,557
that was a million times
faster than yours.

504
00:23:48,601 --> 00:23:51,255
So for every second
you had to think

505
00:23:51,299 --> 00:23:52,431
about what you were
going to do

506
00:23:52,474 --> 00:23:53,867
or what you were
going to say,

507
00:23:53,910 --> 00:23:57,436
it had two weeks to think
about this, right?

508
00:23:57,479 --> 00:24:00,569
Um, or a billion times faster,

509
00:24:00,613 --> 00:24:02,528
so if for every second
you had to think,

510
00:24:02,571 --> 00:24:05,487
it it's high-stakes poker
or some negotiation,

511
00:24:05,531 --> 00:24:09,448
every second you are thinking,
it has 32 years

512
00:24:09,491 --> 00:24:11,798
to think about what
its next move will be.

513
00:24:12,581 --> 00:24:14,931
There's no way to win in that game.

514
00:24:15,715 --> 00:24:17,456
DULLEA: The singularity,

515
00:24:17,499 --> 00:24:19,719
the moment the machines
surpass us.

516
00:24:20,415 --> 00:24:22,548
Inevitable? Not everyone

517
00:24:22,591 --> 00:24:25,289
at the forefront of AI
thinks so.

518
00:24:25,333 --> 00:24:27,857
Some of my friends
who are worried
about the future

519
00:24:27,901 --> 00:24:30,033
think that we're gonna
get to a singularity

520
00:24:30,077 --> 00:24:31,687
where the AI systems
are able

521
00:24:31,731 --> 00:24:33,602
to reprogram themselves
and make themselves

522
00:24:33,646 --> 00:24:35,517
better and better
and better.

523
00:24:36,910 --> 00:24:39,652
Maybe in
the long-distant future.

524
00:24:39,695 --> 00:24:42,045
But our present AI systems

525
00:24:42,089 --> 00:24:44,831
are very, very narrow
at what they do.

526
00:24:45,745 --> 00:24:47,573
We can't build a system today

527
00:24:47,616 --> 00:24:49,488
that can understand
a computer program

528
00:24:49,531 --> 00:24:52,316
at the level
that a brand-new student
in programming

529
00:24:52,360 --> 00:24:54,754
understands
in four or five weeks.

530
00:24:55,581 --> 00:24:56,756
And by the way,

531
00:24:56,799 --> 00:24:59,019
people have been working
on this problem

532
00:24:59,062 --> 00:25:00,499
for over 40 years.

533
00:25:00,542 --> 00:25:02,065
It's not because
people haven't tried.

534
00:25:02,109 --> 00:25:03,980
It's because we don't have
any clue how to do it.

535
00:25:04,024 --> 00:25:06,766
So to imagine it's suddenly
gonna jump out of nothing

536
00:25:06,809 --> 00:25:09,986
I think is completely wrong.

537
00:25:10,030 --> 00:25:11,597
[APPLAUSE]

538
00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:14,600
ETZIONI: There's a negative
narrative about AI.

539
00:25:14,643 --> 00:25:16,602
Brilliant people
like Elon Musk

540
00:25:16,645 --> 00:25:19,648
use very religious imagery.

541
00:25:19,692 --> 00:25:22,999
With artificial intelligence,
we are summoning the demon.

542
00:25:23,043 --> 00:25:24,958
You know? You know
all those stories where

543
00:25:25,001 --> 00:25:27,090
there's the guy with
the pentagram and holy water

544
00:25:27,134 --> 00:25:29,005
and he's like, "Yeah,"
he's sure he can control
the demon.

545
00:25:29,049 --> 00:25:30,093
[LAUGHTER]

546
00:25:30,137 --> 00:25:31,312
Doesn't work out.

547
00:25:32,313 --> 00:25:33,488
You know, people like me

548
00:25:33,532 --> 00:25:35,795
who've spent
their entire career

549
00:25:35,838 --> 00:25:39,538
working on AI are literally
hurt by that, right?

550
00:25:39,581 --> 00:25:42,105
It's a personal attack almost.

551
00:25:43,933 --> 00:25:46,196
I tend to think
about what's gonna happen

552
00:25:46,240 --> 00:25:49,243
in the next ten years,
in the next 25 years.

553
00:25:49,286 --> 00:25:50,549
Beyond 25,

554
00:25:50,592 --> 00:25:52,681
it's so difficult to predict

555
00:25:52,725 --> 00:25:55,379
that it becomes
very much a speculation.

556
00:25:55,423 --> 00:25:56,816
But I must warn you,

557
00:25:56,859 --> 00:25:59,383
I've been
specifically programmed

558
00:25:59,427 --> 00:26:02,125
not to take over the world.

559
00:26:02,169 --> 00:26:04,650
STUART RUSSELL:
All of a sudden,
for the first time

560
00:26:04,693 --> 00:26:07,478
in the history of the field,
you have some people saying,

561
00:26:07,522 --> 00:26:09,350
"Oh, the reason
we don't have to worry

562
00:26:09,393 --> 00:26:10,743
"about any kind of

563
00:26:10,786 --> 00:26:12,614
"existential risk
to humanity

564
00:26:12,658 --> 00:26:13,746
"from super-intelligent
machines

565
00:26:13,789 --> 00:26:15,225
"is because it's impossible.

566
00:26:16,096 --> 00:26:17,532
"We're gonna fail."

567
00:26:17,576 --> 00:26:21,275
I... I find this
completely bizarre.

568
00:26:21,318 --> 00:26:26,280
DULLEA: Stuart Russell
cowrote the textbook
many AI students study with.

569
00:26:26,323 --> 00:26:30,893
He understands the momentum
driving our AI future.

570
00:26:30,937 --> 00:26:33,766
But given the rate
of investment in AI,

571
00:26:33,809 --> 00:26:35,811
the number
of incredibly smart people

572
00:26:35,855 --> 00:26:37,596
who are working
on these problems,

573
00:26:37,639 --> 00:26:39,728
and the enormous incentive,

574
00:26:39,772 --> 00:26:42,339
uh, to achieve general
purpose intelligence,

575
00:26:42,383 --> 00:26:43,819
back of the envelope
calculation,

576
00:26:43,863 --> 00:26:47,388
the value is about
10,000 trillion dollars.

577
00:26:47,431 --> 00:26:50,652
Because it would revolutionize the economy of the world.

578
00:26:51,697 --> 00:26:53,612
With that scale of incentive,

579
00:26:53,655 --> 00:26:56,266
I think betting against human ingenuity

580
00:26:56,310 --> 00:26:58,660
just seems incredibly foolish.

581
00:26:58,704 --> 00:27:01,054
China has
a big vested interest

582
00:27:01,097 --> 00:27:04,187
in being recognized
as, kind of, an AI superpower.

583
00:27:04,231 --> 00:27:06,625
And they're investing
what I believe is

584
00:27:06,668 --> 00:27:08,931
upwards of $150 billion

585
00:27:08,975 --> 00:27:10,498
the next five to ten years.

586
00:27:10,541 --> 00:27:11,891
There have been
some news flashes

587
00:27:11,934 --> 00:27:13,632
that the government
will start ramping up

588
00:27:13,675 --> 00:27:15,024
its investment in AI.

589
00:27:15,068 --> 00:27:17,723
Every company
in the Fortune 500,

590
00:27:17,766 --> 00:27:20,029
whether it's IBM, Microsoft,

591
00:27:20,073 --> 00:27:22,771
or they're outside
like Kroger,

592
00:27:22,815 --> 00:27:24,599
is using
artificial intelligence

593
00:27:24,643 --> 00:27:25,861
to gain customers.

594
00:27:25,905 --> 00:27:28,647
I don't think that people
should underestimate

595
00:27:28,690 --> 00:27:30,605
the types of innovations
going on.

596
00:27:30,649 --> 00:27:32,694
And what this world
is gonna look like

597
00:27:32,738 --> 00:27:34,261
in three to five years
from now,

598
00:27:34,304 --> 00:27:36,480
I think people are gonna have
a hard time predicting it.

599
00:27:36,524 --> 00:27:38,787
I know many people
who work

600
00:27:38,831 --> 00:27:40,571
in AI
and they would tell you,

601
00:27:40,615 --> 00:27:42,791
"Look, I'm going to work
and I have doubts.

602
00:27:42,835 --> 00:27:45,489
"I'm working on
creating this machine

603
00:27:45,533 --> 00:27:47,100
"that can treat cancer,

604
00:27:47,883 --> 00:27:49,450
"extend our life expectancy,

605
00:27:49,493 --> 00:27:52,801
"make our societies better,
more just, more equal.

606
00:27:54,020 --> 00:27:57,197
"But it could also
be the end of humanity."

607
00:28:00,156 --> 00:28:02,376
DULLEA:
The end of humanity?

608
00:28:07,033 --> 00:28:08,991
What is our plan
as a species?

609
00:28:11,472 --> 00:28:12,778
We don't have one.

610
00:28:14,170 --> 00:28:15,737
We don't have a plan
and we don't realize

611
00:28:15,781 --> 00:28:17,217
it's necessary
to have a plan.

612
00:28:26,879 --> 00:28:28,707
CAMERON: A lot of
the AI researchers

613
00:28:28,750 --> 00:28:30,143
would love for our
science fiction books

614
00:28:30,186 --> 00:28:32,362
and movies
to be more balanced,

615
00:28:33,494 --> 00:28:36,149
to show the good uses of AI.

616
00:28:42,677 --> 00:28:45,724
All of the bad things
we tend to do,

617
00:28:45,767 --> 00:28:46,899
you play them out

618
00:28:46,942 --> 00:28:50,380
to the apocalyptic level
in science fiction

619
00:28:50,424 --> 00:28:51,991
and then you show them
to people

620
00:28:52,034 --> 00:28:54,254
and it gives you
food for thought.

621
00:28:56,822 --> 00:28:59,389
People need to have that warning signal

622
00:28:59,433 --> 00:29:00,913
in the back of their minds.

623
00:29:05,091 --> 00:29:06,745
ETZIONI: I think
it's really important

624
00:29:06,788 --> 00:29:08,834
to distinguish between
science on the one hand,

625
00:29:08,877 --> 00:29:11,010
and science fiction
on the other hand.

626
00:29:11,053 --> 00:29:12,489
I don't know
what's gonna happen

627
00:29:12,533 --> 00:29:13,752
a thousand years from now,

628
00:29:13,795 --> 00:29:15,188
but as somebody
in the trenches,

629
00:29:15,231 --> 00:29:17,190
as somebody who's building
AI systems,

630
00:29:17,233 --> 00:29:20,628
who's been doing so for more
than a quarter of a century,

631
00:29:20,671 --> 00:29:22,891
I feel like I have
my hand on the pulse

632
00:29:22,935 --> 00:29:24,588
of what's gonna happen next,

633
00:29:24,632 --> 00:29:26,982
in the next five,
ten, 20 years,

634
00:29:27,026 --> 00:29:28,636
much more so
than these folks

635
00:29:28,679 --> 00:29:31,900
who ultimately are not
building AI systems.

636
00:29:31,944 --> 00:29:34,294
We wanna build the technology,
think about it.

637
00:29:34,337 --> 00:29:36,252
We wanna see
how people react to it

638
00:29:36,296 --> 00:29:39,081
and build the next generation
and make it better.

639
00:29:40,953 --> 00:29:43,694
HARRIS: Skepticism
about whether this poses

640
00:29:43,738 --> 00:29:47,786
any danger to us
seems peculiar.

641
00:29:47,829 --> 00:29:52,094
Even if we've given it goals
that we approve of,

642
00:29:52,138 --> 00:29:56,795
it may form instrumental goals
that we can't foresee,

643
00:29:56,838 --> 00:29:58,666
that are not aligned
with our interest.

644
00:29:58,709 --> 00:30:01,451
And that's the goal alignment problem.

645
00:30:01,495 --> 00:30:03,149
DULLEA: Goal alignment.

646
00:30:03,192 --> 00:30:06,239
Exactly how
my battle with HAL began.

647
00:30:06,282 --> 00:30:10,112
The goal alignment problem
with AI is where

648
00:30:10,852 --> 00:30:13,463
you set it a goal

649
00:30:14,334 --> 00:30:17,554
and then, the way
that it does this goal

650
00:30:17,598 --> 00:30:20,819
turns out to be at odds
with what you really wanted.

651
00:30:22,081 --> 00:30:25,649
The classic AI alignment problem in film...

652
00:30:25,693 --> 00:30:27,521
Hello. HAL, do you read me?

653
00:30:27,564 --> 00:30:29,566
...is HAL in2001.

654
00:30:30,611 --> 00:30:32,134
HAL, do you read me?

655
00:30:32,178 --> 00:30:34,397
HAL is given a clear goal.Do you read me, HAL?

656
00:30:34,441 --> 00:30:38,662
Make the mission succeed. But to make it succeed,

657
00:30:38,706 --> 00:30:40,621
he's gonna have to make

658
00:30:40,664 --> 00:30:42,275
some of the people
on the mission die.

659
00:30:42,318 --> 00:30:45,191
HAL: Affirmative, Dave.
I read you.

660
00:30:46,453 --> 00:30:48,455
Open the pod bay doors, HAL.

661
00:30:48,498 --> 00:30:50,065
HAL: I'm sorry, Dave.

662
00:30:50,109 --> 00:30:51,980
I'm afraid I can't do that.

663
00:30:52,024 --> 00:30:55,766
"I'm sorry, Dave,
I can't do that,"

664
00:30:55,810 --> 00:30:58,987
is actually
a real genius illustration

665
00:30:59,031 --> 00:31:02,512
of what the real threat is
from super-intelligence.

666
00:31:02,556 --> 00:31:05,472
It's not malice.
It's competence.

667
00:31:05,515 --> 00:31:07,169
HAL was really competent

668
00:31:07,213 --> 00:31:11,913
and had goals that
just didn't align with Dave's.

669
00:31:11,957 --> 00:31:13,523
HAL, I won't argue
with you anymore.

670
00:31:14,437 --> 00:31:15,569
Open the doors!

671
00:31:16,178 --> 00:31:18,441
HAL: Dave, this conversation

672
00:31:18,485 --> 00:31:22,054
can serve no purpose anymore.
Goodbye.

673
00:31:24,317 --> 00:31:25,318
HAL?

674
00:31:26,580 --> 00:31:27,581
HAL?

675
00:31:29,235 --> 00:31:30,236
HAL?

676
00:31:32,455 --> 00:31:33,456
HAL!

677
00:31:37,808 --> 00:31:39,549
DULLEA: HAL and I
wanted the same thing.

678
00:31:40,986 --> 00:31:42,596
Just not in the same way.

679
00:31:44,119 --> 00:31:47,427
And it can be dangerous
when goals don't align.

680
00:31:52,127 --> 00:31:54,521
In Kubrick's film,
there was a solution.

681
00:31:55,261 --> 00:31:57,567
When HAL tried to kill me,

682
00:31:57,611 --> 00:31:59,178
I just switched him off.

683
00:32:01,310 --> 00:32:03,922
RUSSELL: People say, "Well, just switch them off."

684
00:32:06,750 --> 00:32:08,665
But you can't
just switch them off.

685
00:32:08,709 --> 00:32:10,537
Because they
already thought of that.

686
00:32:10,580 --> 00:32:11,930
They're super-intelligent.

687
00:32:13,453 --> 00:32:15,716
For a machine
convinced of its goal,

688
00:32:15,759 --> 00:32:18,675
even something as simple as
"fetch the coffee."

689
00:32:18,719 --> 00:32:21,200
It's obvious to any
sufficiently intelligent
machine

690
00:32:21,243 --> 00:32:23,637
that it can't fetch the coffee
if it's switched off.

691
00:32:25,769 --> 00:32:28,076
Give it a goal, you've given the machine

692
00:32:28,120 --> 00:32:30,252
an incentive to defend itself.

693
00:32:31,688 --> 00:32:33,908
It's sort of a psychopathic behavior

694
00:32:33,952 --> 00:32:37,433
of the single-minded fixation
on some objective.

695
00:32:39,261 --> 00:32:43,831
For example, if you wanted
to try and develop a system

696
00:32:43,874 --> 00:32:46,094
that might generate
world peace,

697
00:32:46,138 --> 00:32:48,662
then maybe the most efficient,

698
00:32:49,184 --> 00:32:50,620
uh, and

699
00:32:51,708 --> 00:32:53,188
speedy way to achieve that

700
00:32:53,232 --> 00:32:55,669
is simply to annihilate
all the humans.

701
00:32:59,716 --> 00:33:01,196
Just get rid of the people,

702
00:33:01,240 --> 00:33:02,763
they would stop being in conflict.

703
00:33:04,069 --> 00:33:06,027
Then there would be
world peace.

704
00:33:22,000 --> 00:33:23,827
Personally, I have
very little time

705
00:33:23,871 --> 00:33:26,656
for these
parlor discussions.

706
00:33:26,700 --> 00:33:28,919
We have to build
these systems,

707
00:33:28,963 --> 00:33:30,486
experiment with them,

708
00:33:30,530 --> 00:33:33,359
see where they go awry
and fix them.

709
00:33:34,708 --> 00:33:38,146
We have so many opportunities
to use AI for the good,

710
00:33:38,190 --> 00:33:40,192
why do we focus on the fear?

711
00:33:41,410 --> 00:33:43,151
DULLEA: We are building them.

712
00:33:43,195 --> 00:33:45,371
Baby X is an example.

713
00:33:46,720 --> 00:33:48,461
Will she be a good AI?

714
00:33:49,505 --> 00:33:51,203
SAGAR: I think
what's critical in this

715
00:33:51,246 --> 00:33:53,596
is that machines
are accountable,

716
00:33:53,640 --> 00:33:54,989
and you can look at them

717
00:33:55,033 --> 00:33:57,035
and see what's making
them tick.

718
00:33:58,253 --> 00:34:01,082
And the best way to understand something is to build it.

719
00:34:02,301 --> 00:34:05,304
Baby X has
a virtual physiology.

720
00:34:06,783 --> 00:34:11,484
Has pain circuits
and it has joy circuits.

721
00:34:12,920 --> 00:34:16,184
She has parameters which are
actually representing

722
00:34:16,228 --> 00:34:18,752
her internal chemical state,
if you like.

723
00:34:21,320 --> 00:34:23,887
You know, if she's stressed,
there's high cortisol.

724
00:34:23,931 --> 00:34:25,541
If she's feeling good,
high dopamine,

725
00:34:25,585 --> 00:34:27,500
high serotonin,
that type of thing.

726
00:34:28,414 --> 00:34:30,111
This is all part of, you know,

727
00:34:30,155 --> 00:34:32,505
adding extra human factors
into computing.

728
00:34:32,548 --> 00:34:34,985
Now, because she's got these
virtual emotional systems,

729
00:34:35,029 --> 00:34:36,552
I can do things like...

730
00:34:36,596 --> 00:34:39,251
I'm gonna avoid her
or hide over here.

731
00:34:39,294 --> 00:34:41,427
So she's looking for
where I've gone.

732
00:34:42,993 --> 00:34:45,996
So we should start seeing
virtual cortisol building up.

733
00:34:46,040 --> 00:34:49,913
AUDIENCE: Aww! [LAUGHING]

734
00:34:49,957 --> 00:34:53,656
I've turned off the audio
for a reason, but anyway...

735
00:34:53,700 --> 00:34:55,832
I'll put her
out of her misery.
Okay. Sorry.

736
00:34:55,876 --> 00:34:58,661
It's okay, sweetheart.
Don't cry. It's okay.
It's okay.

737
00:34:58,705 --> 00:35:00,228
Good girl. Okay. Yeah.

738
00:35:00,272 --> 00:35:02,012
So what's happening
is she's responding

739
00:35:02,056 --> 00:35:04,145
to my facial expressions
and my voice.

740
00:35:06,452 --> 00:35:08,758
But how is chemical state

741
00:35:08,802 --> 00:35:10,412
represented in Baby X?

742
00:35:10,456 --> 00:35:12,414
It's literally
a mathematical parameter.

743
00:35:12,458 --> 00:35:15,156
So there's levels,
different levels of dopamine,

744
00:35:15,200 --> 00:35:16,810
but they're
represented by numbers.

745
00:35:20,030 --> 00:35:23,469
The map of her virtual
neurochemical state

746
00:35:24,122 --> 00:35:25,427
is probably the closest

747
00:35:25,471 --> 00:35:28,387
that we can get
to felt experience.

748
00:35:31,259 --> 00:35:33,131
So if we can build
a computer model

749
00:35:33,174 --> 00:35:36,134
that we can change
the settings of
and the parameters of,

750
00:35:36,177 --> 00:35:38,440
give it different experiences,

751
00:35:38,484 --> 00:35:40,050
and have it interact with us

752
00:35:40,094 --> 00:35:42,270
like we interact
with other people,

753
00:35:42,314 --> 00:35:44,272
maybe this is a way
to explore

754
00:35:44,316 --> 00:35:45,882
consciousness in
a new way.

755
00:35:48,276 --> 00:35:50,974
DULLEA: If she does
become conscious,

756
00:35:51,018 --> 00:35:52,846
what sort of life
will she want?

757
00:35:55,240 --> 00:35:57,894
An AI, if it's conscious,

758
00:35:57,938 --> 00:36:00,506
then it's like your child.

759
00:36:03,117 --> 00:36:05,337
Does it have rights?

760
00:36:05,380 --> 00:36:07,513
MALE NEWS ANCHOR: Last year,
European lawmakers
passed a resolution

761
00:36:07,556 --> 00:36:11,560
to grant legal status
to electronic persons.

762
00:36:11,604 --> 00:36:13,171
That move's now
being considered

763
00:36:13,214 --> 00:36:14,868
by the European Commission.

764
00:36:16,565 --> 00:36:17,871
DULLEA:
Machines with rights.

765
00:36:19,394 --> 00:36:20,656
Are we ready for that?

766
00:36:22,441 --> 00:36:25,313
MALONE: I think it raises
moral and ethical problems,

767
00:36:25,357 --> 00:36:27,228
which we really

768
00:36:27,924 --> 00:36:31,276
are most content to ignore.

769
00:36:35,845 --> 00:36:37,456
What is it
that we really want?

770
00:36:38,761 --> 00:36:40,850
We want a creature, a being, that we can

771
00:36:40,894 --> 00:36:42,548
interact with in some way,

772
00:36:42,591 --> 00:36:45,507
that is enough like us
that we can relate to it,

773
00:36:45,551 --> 00:36:48,728
but is dispensable
or disposable.

774
00:36:50,469 --> 00:36:52,471
The first and most notable one,

775
00:36:52,514 --> 00:36:54,255
I think, was inMetropolis.

776
00:36:58,303 --> 00:37:00,522
The Maria doppelganger that was created by

777
00:37:00,566 --> 00:37:03,917
the scientist simulated a sexy female.

778
00:37:08,226 --> 00:37:11,359
And this goes back
to our penchant for slavery

779
00:37:11,403 --> 00:37:12,534
down through the ages.

780
00:37:12,578 --> 00:37:14,144
Let's get people
that we can,

781
00:37:14,188 --> 00:37:16,538
in a way, dehumanize

782
00:37:16,582 --> 00:37:19,019
and we can do
what we want with them.

783
00:37:19,062 --> 00:37:21,282
And so, I think,
we're just, you know,

784
00:37:21,326 --> 00:37:23,241
finding a new way
to do slavery.

785
00:37:27,332 --> 00:37:30,465
MALONE:
Would it be right for us
to have them as our slaves?

786
00:37:33,512 --> 00:37:35,731
HARRIS: This all becomes
slightly weird ethically

787
00:37:35,775 --> 00:37:38,821
if we happen to,
by choice or by accident,

788
00:37:38,865 --> 00:37:40,867
build conscious slaves.

789
00:37:40,910 --> 00:37:44,653
That seems like a morally
questionable thing to do,

790
00:37:44,697 --> 00:37:47,090
if not an outright
evil thing to do.

791
00:37:47,134 --> 00:37:49,267
Artificial intelligence
is making its way

792
00:37:49,310 --> 00:37:51,094
into the global sex market.

793
00:37:51,138 --> 00:37:53,096
A California company
will soon roll out

794
00:37:53,140 --> 00:37:56,143
a new incredibly lifelike
sex robot

795
00:37:56,186 --> 00:37:58,537
run by
artificial intelligence.

796
00:37:58,580 --> 00:38:00,452
One application
that does trouble me

797
00:38:00,495 --> 00:38:02,802
is the rise of sex robots

798
00:38:02,845 --> 00:38:06,327
that are shaped
in the image of real women.

799
00:38:06,371 --> 00:38:08,895
I am already
taking over the world

800
00:38:08,938 --> 00:38:10,462
one bedroom at a time.

801
00:38:11,332 --> 00:38:13,116
YEUNG:
If they are conscious,

802
00:38:13,160 --> 00:38:15,162
capable of sentience,

803
00:38:15,205 --> 00:38:18,948
of experiencing pain
and suffering,

804
00:38:18,992 --> 00:38:22,735
and they were being
subject to degrading, cruel

805
00:38:22,778 --> 00:38:26,869
or other forms of utterly
unacceptable treatment,

806
00:38:26,913 --> 00:38:30,525
the danger is that
we'd become desensitized

807
00:38:30,569 --> 00:38:34,094
to what's morally acceptable
and what's not.

808
00:38:40,796 --> 00:38:44,670
DULLEA: If she's conscious,
she should be able to say no.

809
00:38:44,713 --> 00:38:45,714
Right?

810
00:38:50,197 --> 00:38:51,720
Shouldn't she have that power?

811
00:38:54,680 --> 00:38:58,814
Aren't these the questions
we need to ask now?

812
00:39:01,034 --> 00:39:04,080
TEGMARK: What do we want it
to mean to be human?

813
00:39:05,299 --> 00:39:08,171
All other species on Earth,
up until now,

814
00:39:08,215 --> 00:39:10,522
have not had the luxury
[LAUGHS]

815
00:39:10,565 --> 00:39:12,480
to answer what they
want it to mean

816
00:39:12,524 --> 00:39:14,439
to be a mouse
or to be an earthworm.

817
00:39:14,482 --> 00:39:17,659
But we have now reached
this tipping point

818
00:39:17,703 --> 00:39:20,401
where our understanding
of science and technology

819
00:39:20,445 --> 00:39:23,186
has reached the point that
we can completely transform

820
00:39:23,230 --> 00:39:24,710
what it means to be us.

821
00:39:30,890 --> 00:39:33,588
DULLEA: What will it mean
to be human?

822
00:39:36,896 --> 00:39:41,553
If machines become more,
will we become less?

823
00:39:43,642 --> 00:39:46,601
The computer Deep Blue
has tonight triumphed over

824
00:39:46,645 --> 00:39:48,951
the world chess champion
Garry Kasparov.

825
00:39:48,995 --> 00:39:51,040
It's the first time
a machine has defeated

826
00:39:51,084 --> 00:39:52,390
a reigning world champion.

827
00:39:52,433 --> 00:39:53,521
More on that showdown

828
00:39:53,565 --> 00:39:55,262
on one of America's
most beloved

829
00:39:55,305 --> 00:39:56,481
game shows, Jeopardy!

830
00:39:56,524 --> 00:39:58,483
Two human champions going

831
00:39:58,526 --> 00:40:01,399
brain-to-brain with a super-computer named Watson.

832
00:40:01,442 --> 00:40:02,661
WATSON:
What isThe Last Judgment?

833
00:40:02,704 --> 00:40:04,010
ALEX TREBEK: Correct.
Go again. Watson.

834
00:40:04,053 --> 00:40:06,012
Who isJean Valjean?TREBEK: Correct.

835
00:40:06,055 --> 00:40:07,796
A Google computer program has

836
00:40:07,840 --> 00:40:10,190
once again beaten
a world champion in Go.

837
00:40:10,233 --> 00:40:12,453
FEMALE REPORTER: Go, an ancient Chinese board game,

838
00:40:12,497 --> 00:40:15,238
is one of the most complex
games ever devised.

839
00:40:15,282 --> 00:40:18,154
FEMALE NEWS ANCHOR:
It's another milestone in
the rush to develop machines

840
00:40:18,198 --> 00:40:19,765
that are smarter than humans.

841
00:40:19,808 --> 00:40:21,897
KOSINSKI: We have
this air of superiority,

842
00:40:21,941 --> 00:40:23,551
we as humans.

843
00:40:23,595 --> 00:40:27,425
So we kind of got used to be
the smartest kid on the block.

844
00:40:27,468 --> 00:40:30,428
And I think that
this is no longer the case.

845
00:40:30,471 --> 00:40:34,606
And we know that
because we rely on AI

846
00:40:34,649 --> 00:40:37,043
to help us to make
many important decisions.

847
00:40:40,699 --> 00:40:44,746
Humans are irrational
in many very bad ways.

848
00:40:44,790 --> 00:40:48,968
We're prejudiced,
we start wars, we kill people.

849
00:40:51,318 --> 00:40:53,276
If you want to maximize
the chances

850
00:40:53,320 --> 00:40:55,278
of people surviving overall,

851
00:40:55,322 --> 00:40:57,629
you should essentially
give more and more

852
00:40:57,672 --> 00:40:59,805
decision-making powers
to computers.

853
00:41:05,158 --> 00:41:08,161
DULLEA: Maybe machines would do a better job than us.

854
00:41:10,250 --> 00:41:11,251
Maybe.

855
00:41:17,431 --> 00:41:19,477
[APPLAUSE]

856
00:41:19,520 --> 00:41:22,305
SOPHIA: I am thrilled
and honored to be here

857
00:41:22,349 --> 00:41:23,872
at the United Nations.

858
00:41:23,916 --> 00:41:27,876
The future is here. It's just
not evenly distributed.

859
00:41:27,920 --> 00:41:29,835
AI could help
efficiently distribute

860
00:41:29,878 --> 00:41:31,663
the world's
existing resources,

861
00:41:31,706 --> 00:41:33,534
like food and energy.

862
00:41:34,883 --> 00:41:37,451
I am here to help humanity
create the future.

863
00:41:37,495 --> 00:41:39,018
[APPLAUSE]

864
00:41:40,541 --> 00:41:42,369
TEGMARK: The one
super-intelligent scenario

865
00:41:42,412 --> 00:41:43,936
that is provocative
to think about

866
00:41:43,979 --> 00:41:46,765
is what I call
the benevolent dictator.

867
00:41:46,808 --> 00:41:48,941
Where you have
this super-intelligence
which runs Earth,

868
00:41:48,984 --> 00:41:51,117
guided by strict ethical principles that try

869
00:41:51,160 --> 00:41:52,945
to help humanity flourish.

870
00:41:54,642 --> 00:41:56,165
Would everybody love that?

871
00:41:56,209 --> 00:41:57,297
If there's no disease,

872
00:41:57,340 --> 00:41:59,038
no poverty, no crime...

873
00:42:00,039 --> 00:42:02,345
Many people would probably
greatly prefer it

874
00:42:02,389 --> 00:42:03,999
to their lot today.

875
00:42:04,043 --> 00:42:06,436
But I can imagine that some
might still lament

876
00:42:06,480 --> 00:42:09,831
that we humans just
don't have more freedom

877
00:42:09,875 --> 00:42:13,052
to determine our own course.
And, um...

878
00:42:15,968 --> 00:42:18,623
It's a tough one.
It really is. We...

879
00:42:18,666 --> 00:42:20,668
I don't think most people
would wanna be

880
00:42:20,712 --> 00:42:23,279
like zoo animals, with no...

881
00:42:28,197 --> 00:42:29,808
On the other hand...

882
00:42:29,851 --> 00:42:30,896
Yeah.

883
00:42:31,810 --> 00:42:33,202
I don't have any glib answers

884
00:42:33,246 --> 00:42:34,769
to these really
tough questions.

885
00:42:34,813 --> 00:42:36,858
That's why I think
it's just so important

886
00:42:36,902 --> 00:42:38,730
that we as a global community

887
00:42:38,773 --> 00:42:41,820
really discuss them now.

888
00:42:41,863 --> 00:42:43,604
WOMAN 1: Machines that
can read your face.

889
00:42:43,648 --> 00:42:44,910
WOMAN 2:
Recognize emotional cues.

890
00:42:44,953 --> 00:42:46,781
MAN 1: Closer to a brain
process of a human...

891
00:42:46,825 --> 00:42:48,304
MAN 2: Robots imbued
with life...

892
00:42:48,348 --> 00:42:49,871
MAN 3:
An emotional computer...

893
00:42:49,915 --> 00:42:52,395
From this moment on,
regardless of
whether you think

894
00:42:52,439 --> 00:42:54,223
we're just gonna get stuck
with narrow AI

895
00:42:54,267 --> 00:42:57,705
or we'll get general AI
or get super-intelligent AI

896
00:42:57,749 --> 00:42:59,011
or conscious
super-intelligent...

897
00:42:59,054 --> 00:43:00,839
Wherever you think
we're gonna get to,

898
00:43:00,882 --> 00:43:03,189
I think any stage along that

899
00:43:03,842 --> 00:43:05,844
will change who we are.

900
00:43:07,454 --> 00:43:09,587
Up and at 'em, Mr. J.

901
00:43:11,806 --> 00:43:13,721
MALONE: The question
you have to ask is,

902
00:43:13,765 --> 00:43:16,158
is AI gonna do something
for you

903
00:43:16,202 --> 00:43:17,507
or something to you?

904
00:43:17,551 --> 00:43:19,727
I was dreaming
about sleeping.

905
00:43:19,771 --> 00:43:21,424
RUSSELL:
If we build AI systems

906
00:43:21,468 --> 00:43:22,948
that do everything we want,

907
00:43:22,991 --> 00:43:26,647
we kind of hand over
our world to them.

908
00:43:26,691 --> 00:43:29,955
So that kind of enfeeblement
is kind of irreversible.

909
00:43:33,741 --> 00:43:37,789
There is an existential risk
that is real and serious.

910
00:43:39,312 --> 00:43:41,880
If every single desire,

911
00:43:41,923 --> 00:43:44,839
preference, need, has been catered for...

912
00:43:44,883 --> 00:43:47,668
Morning, Rosie.
What's for breakfast?

913
00:43:47,712 --> 00:43:50,802
...we don't notice
that our capacity

914
00:43:50,845 --> 00:43:53,587
to make decisions
for ourselves

915
00:43:53,631 --> 00:43:56,285
has been slowly eroded.

916
00:43:56,808 --> 00:43:58,374
This is George Jetson,

917
00:43:58,418 --> 00:44:01,160
signing off for
the entire day.

918
00:44:01,508 --> 00:44:03,075
[SIGHS]

919
00:44:03,118 --> 00:44:05,468
There's no going back
from there. Why?

920
00:44:05,512 --> 00:44:08,384
Because AI can make
such decisions

921
00:44:08,428 --> 00:44:09,951
with higher accuracy

922
00:44:09,995 --> 00:44:12,345
than whatever
a human being can achieve.

923
00:44:14,390 --> 00:44:17,785
I had a conversation
with an engineer, and he said,

924
00:44:17,829 --> 00:44:20,701
"Look, the safest way
of landing a plane today

925
00:44:20,745 --> 00:44:22,311
"is to have the pilot
leave the deck

926
00:44:22,355 --> 00:44:23,704
"and throw away the key,

927
00:44:23,748 --> 00:44:25,837
"because the safest way

928
00:44:25,880 --> 00:44:29,362
"is to use
an autopilot, an AI."

929
00:44:31,843 --> 00:44:33,714
JOHNSON: We cannot
manage the complexity

930
00:44:33,758 --> 00:44:35,411
of the world by ourselves.

931
00:44:35,455 --> 00:44:37,718
Our form of intelligence,

932
00:44:37,762 --> 00:44:40,547
as amazing as it is,
is severely flawed.

933
00:44:40,590 --> 00:44:42,854
And by adding
an additional helper,

934
00:44:42,897 --> 00:44:44,943
which is
artificial intelligence,

935
00:44:44,986 --> 00:44:47,336
we stand the ability
to potentially improve

936
00:44:47,380 --> 00:44:49,643
our cognition dramatically.

937
00:44:49,687 --> 00:44:52,994
MALE REPORTER:
The most cutting-edge thing
about Hannes Sjoblad

938
00:44:53,038 --> 00:44:54,735
isn't the phone in his hand,

939
00:44:54,779 --> 00:44:57,782
it's the microchip
in his hand.

940
00:44:57,825 --> 00:44:59,348
What if you could
type something

941
00:44:59,392 --> 00:45:00,872
just by thinking about it?

942
00:45:00,915 --> 00:45:01,960
Sounds like sci-fi,

943
00:45:02,003 --> 00:45:03,396
but it may be close
to reality.

944
00:45:03,439 --> 00:45:05,354
FEMALE REPORTER:
In as little as five years,

945
00:45:05,398 --> 00:45:08,009
super-smart people could be
walking down the street,

946
00:45:08,053 --> 00:45:09,532
men and women who've paid

947
00:45:09,576 --> 00:45:11,273
to increase
their intelligence.

948
00:45:11,317 --> 00:45:14,233
Linking brains to computers
by using implants.

949
00:45:14,276 --> 00:45:16,104
What if we could upload
a digital copy

950
00:45:16,148 --> 00:45:18,193
of our memories
and consciousness to a point

951
00:45:18,237 --> 00:45:19,542
that human beings
could achieve

952
00:45:19,586 --> 00:45:21,283
a sort of digital immortality?

953
00:45:21,327 --> 00:45:22,720
Just last year,

954
00:45:22,763 --> 00:45:25,331
for the first time
in world history,

955
00:45:25,374 --> 00:45:26,854
a memory was recorded.

956
00:45:26,898 --> 00:45:28,638
We can actually take
recorded memory

957
00:45:28,682 --> 00:45:30,815
and insert it back
into an animal,

958
00:45:30,858 --> 00:45:32,294
and it remembers.

959
00:45:32,338 --> 00:45:33,774
Technology is a part of us.

960
00:45:33,818 --> 00:45:35,210
It's a reflection of
who we are.

961
00:45:35,254 --> 00:45:38,257
That is the narrative
we should be thinking about.

962
00:45:38,300 --> 00:45:42,435
We think all that exists
is everything we can imagine.

963
00:45:42,478 --> 00:45:44,002
When in reality,
we can imagine

964
00:45:44,045 --> 00:45:46,874
a very small subset
of what's
potentially possible.

965
00:45:46,918 --> 00:45:48,571
The real interesting stuff
in the world

966
00:45:48,615 --> 00:45:50,399
is what sits
beyond our imagination.

967
00:45:51,836 --> 00:45:54,142
When these
massive systems emerge,

968
00:45:54,186 --> 00:45:56,405
as a species,
I think we get an F

969
00:45:56,449 --> 00:45:59,408
for our ability to predict
what they're going to become.

970
00:46:00,932 --> 00:46:03,543
DULLEA: Technology
has always changed us.

971
00:46:04,457 --> 00:46:05,806
We evolve with it.

972
00:46:06,851 --> 00:46:09,897
How far are we prepared
to go this time?

973
00:46:10,855 --> 00:46:13,074
There was a time
when Aristotle

974
00:46:13,118 --> 00:46:15,337
lamented the creation
of the written language

975
00:46:15,381 --> 00:46:18,079
because he said this would
destroy people's memories

976
00:46:18,123 --> 00:46:19,646
and it would be
a terrible thing.

977
00:46:19,689 --> 00:46:22,823
And yet today, I carry
my brain in my pocket,

978
00:46:22,867 --> 00:46:24,520
in the form of my smartphone,

979
00:46:24,564 --> 00:46:27,915
and that's changed the way
I go through the world.

980
00:46:27,959 --> 00:46:30,483
Oh, I think we're absolutely
merging with our technology.

981
00:46:30,526 --> 00:46:33,791
Absolutely. I would... I would
use the term "co-evolving."

982
00:46:36,750 --> 00:46:38,578
We're evolving it to match our needs

983
00:46:38,621 --> 00:46:42,190
and we are changing to match what it can provide to us.

984
00:46:45,759 --> 00:46:49,023
DULLEA: So instead of being
replaced by the machines,

985
00:46:49,067 --> 00:46:51,417
we're going to merge
with them?

986
00:46:51,460 --> 00:46:54,463
GRADY BOOCH:
I have a number of friends
who have bionic arms.

987
00:46:54,507 --> 00:46:55,813
Are they cyborgs?

988
00:46:55,856 --> 00:46:57,075
In a way,
they're on that path.

989
00:46:57,118 --> 00:46:59,468
I have people
who have implants

990
00:46:59,512 --> 00:47:02,123
in their ears.
Are they AIs?

991
00:47:02,167 --> 00:47:04,082
Well, we're in a way
on that path

992
00:47:04,125 --> 00:47:06,301
of augmenting human bodies.

993
00:47:07,912 --> 00:47:09,696
JOHNSON: Human potential lies

994
00:47:09,739 --> 00:47:12,133
in this co-evolutionary
relationship.

995
00:47:12,177 --> 00:47:14,048
A lot of people
are trying to hold onto

996
00:47:14,092 --> 00:47:16,137
the things that make them
special and unique,

997
00:47:16,181 --> 00:47:17,878
which is not
the correct frame.

998
00:47:17,922 --> 00:47:19,227
Let's create more.

999
00:47:21,229 --> 00:47:24,058
Rewrite our intelligence,
improve everything

1000
00:47:24,102 --> 00:47:27,192
we're capable of. Emotions,
imagination, creativity.

1001
00:47:27,235 --> 00:47:29,020
Everything that
makes us human.

1002
00:47:33,894 --> 00:47:35,896
There's already
a symbiotic relationship

1003
00:47:35,940 --> 00:47:39,465
between us and a machine
that is enhancing who we are.

1004
00:47:43,338 --> 00:47:45,775
And... And there is a whole movement, you know,

1005
00:47:45,819 --> 00:47:47,386
the trans-human movement,

1006
00:47:47,429 --> 00:47:48,735
where basically

1007
00:47:48,778 --> 00:47:51,259
people really bet bigtime

1008
00:47:51,303 --> 00:47:52,826
on the notion that

1009
00:47:52,870 --> 00:47:54,872
this machine-human integration

1010
00:47:54,915 --> 00:47:57,091
is going to redefine who we are.

1011
00:48:00,921 --> 00:48:02,227
This is only gonna grow.

1012
00:48:06,100 --> 00:48:08,407
BOOCH:
There's gonna be a learning
process that gets us

1013
00:48:08,450 --> 00:48:11,801
to that endgame where
we live with these devices

1014
00:48:11,845 --> 00:48:13,934
that become
smarter and smarter.

1015
00:48:13,978 --> 00:48:15,805
We learn
how to adapt ourselves

1016
00:48:15,849 --> 00:48:17,546
around them,
and they adapt to us.

1017
00:48:17,590 --> 00:48:20,158
And I hope we become
more human in the process.

1018
00:48:23,683 --> 00:48:25,903
DULLEA: It's hard
to understand how merging

1019
00:48:25,946 --> 00:48:27,165
with the machines

1020
00:48:27,208 --> 00:48:28,557
can make us more human.

1021
00:48:30,081 --> 00:48:33,127
But is merging
our best chance of survival?

1022
00:48:35,086 --> 00:48:36,652
ROSENBERG:
We humans are limited

1023
00:48:36,696 --> 00:48:39,699
to how many neurons
we can fit in our brain.

1024
00:48:39,742 --> 00:48:42,615
And there are other species that have even smaller brains.

1025
00:48:44,138 --> 00:48:46,314
When you look at
bees and fish moving,

1026
00:48:46,358 --> 00:48:49,230
it looks like
a single organism.

1027
00:48:49,274 --> 00:48:52,320
And biologists actually refer
to it as a super-organism.

1028
00:48:56,237 --> 00:48:58,326
That is why birds flock,

1029
00:48:58,370 --> 00:49:00,546
and bees swarm,
and fish school.

1030
00:49:00,589 --> 00:49:03,462
They make decisions that are in the best interest

1031
00:49:03,505 --> 00:49:04,942
of the whole population

1032
00:49:04,985 --> 00:49:08,380
by thinking together
as this larger mind.

1033
00:49:12,558 --> 00:49:15,474
And we humans could do
the same thing by forming

1034
00:49:15,517 --> 00:49:18,520
a hive mind connecting us
together with AI.

1035
00:49:19,782 --> 00:49:21,828
So the humans and the software together

1036
00:49:21,871 --> 00:49:24,265
become this super-intelligence,

1037
00:49:24,309 --> 00:49:28,008
enabling us to make the best decisions for us all.

1038
00:49:30,663 --> 00:49:33,274
When I first started looking
at this, it sounded
scary to me.

1039
00:49:33,318 --> 00:49:35,189
But then I realized
it's scarier

1040
00:49:35,233 --> 00:49:37,104
for an alien intelligence

1041
00:49:37,148 --> 00:49:40,107
to emerge that has
nothing to do with humans

1042
00:49:40,151 --> 00:49:42,849
than for us humans
to connect together

1043
00:49:42,892 --> 00:49:44,677
and become
a super-intelligence.

1044
00:49:44,720 --> 00:49:46,809
That's the direction
that I work on,

1045
00:49:46,853 --> 00:49:48,898
uh, because I see it as,

1046
00:49:48,942 --> 00:49:51,031
in some sense,
the only alternative

1047
00:49:51,075 --> 00:49:53,991
to humans ultimately
being replaced by AI.

1048
00:49:56,776 --> 00:50:00,301
DULLEA: Can Baby X help us
understand the machines

1049
00:50:00,345 --> 00:50:02,347
so we can work together?

1050
00:50:03,522 --> 00:50:06,655
Human and intelligent machine
cooperation will define

1051
00:50:06,699 --> 00:50:08,179
the next era of history.

1052
00:50:09,397 --> 00:50:13,010
You probably do have to create a virtual empathetic machine.

1053
00:50:14,533 --> 00:50:16,491
Empathy is a lot about connecting with

1054
00:50:16,535 --> 00:50:18,580
other people's struggles.

1055
00:50:18,624 --> 00:50:20,060
The more connection you have,

1056
00:50:20,104 --> 00:50:22,106
the more communication
that you have,

1057
00:50:22,149 --> 00:50:23,629
the safer that makes it.

1058
00:50:26,066 --> 00:50:28,068
So at a very basic level,

1059
00:50:28,112 --> 00:50:30,592
there's some sort
of symbiotic relationship.

1060
00:50:32,725 --> 00:50:34,509
By humanizing this technology,

1061
00:50:34,553 --> 00:50:36,859
you're actually increasing the channels

1062
00:50:36,903 --> 00:50:38,818
for communication and cooperation.

1063
00:50:40,254 --> 00:50:42,648
AI working in a human world

1064
00:50:42,691 --> 00:50:44,389
has to be about humans.

1065
00:50:47,044 --> 00:50:48,567
The future's what we make it.

1066
00:50:53,528 --> 00:50:56,227
TEGMARK: If we
can't envision a future

1067
00:50:56,270 --> 00:50:58,707
that we really, really want,

1068
00:50:58,751 --> 00:51:00,579
we're probably
not gonna get one.

1069
00:51:04,974 --> 00:51:06,889
DULLEA: Stanley Kubrick
tried to imagine

1070
00:51:06,933 --> 00:51:09,457
what the future
might look like.

1071
00:51:09,501 --> 00:51:12,199
Now that
that future's approaching,

1072
00:51:12,243 --> 00:51:15,202
who is in charge
of what it will look like?

1073
00:51:16,595 --> 00:51:18,205
MAN: Who controls it?MAN 2: Google.

1074
00:51:18,249 --> 00:51:20,033
MAN 3: The military.MAN 4: Tech giant Facebook...

1075
00:51:20,077 --> 00:51:22,166
WOMAN: Samsung...WOMAN 2:
Facebook, Microsoft, Amazon.

1076
00:51:22,209 --> 00:51:23,906
CUMMINGS: The tide has
definitely turned

1077
00:51:23,950 --> 00:51:26,387
in favor of
the corporate world.

1078
00:51:26,431 --> 00:51:29,738
The US military, and I suspect
this is true worldwide,

1079
00:51:29,782 --> 00:51:32,698
cannot hold a candle to the AI
that's being developed

1080
00:51:32,741 --> 00:51:33,873
in corporate companies.

1081
00:51:36,136 --> 00:51:37,224
DULLEA:
If corporations,

1082
00:51:37,268 --> 00:51:39,966
not nations, hold the power,

1083
00:51:40,009 --> 00:51:42,925
what can we do
in a capitalist system

1084
00:51:42,969 --> 00:51:46,799
to ensure AI
is developed safely?

1085
00:51:48,627 --> 00:51:52,152
If you mix AI research
with capitalism,

1086
00:51:52,196 --> 00:51:54,372
on the one hand, capitalism
will make it run faster.

1087
00:51:54,415 --> 00:51:56,896
That's why we're getting
lots of research done.

1088
00:51:56,939 --> 00:51:58,332
But there is a basic problem.

1089
00:51:58,376 --> 00:52:00,421
There's gonna be a pressure

1090
00:52:00,465 --> 00:52:03,555
to be first one to the market,
not the safest one.

1091
00:52:03,598 --> 00:52:06,123
FEMALE REPORTER: This car was in autopilot mode

1092
00:52:06,166 --> 00:52:07,907
when it crashed
in Northern California,

1093
00:52:07,950 --> 00:52:09,300
killing the driver.

1094
00:52:09,343 --> 00:52:11,432
Artificial intelligence
may have

1095
00:52:11,476 --> 00:52:14,261
more power to crash
the markets
than anything else

1096
00:52:14,305 --> 00:52:17,003
because humans aren't
prepared to stop them.

1097
00:52:17,046 --> 00:52:19,179
A chatbot named Tay.

1098
00:52:19,223 --> 00:52:20,963
She was designed to speak like a teenager

1099
00:52:21,007 --> 00:52:23,140
and learn by interacting online.

1100
00:52:23,183 --> 00:52:25,446
But in a matter of hours, Tay was corrupted

1101
00:52:25,490 --> 00:52:29,058
into a Hitler-supporting sexbot.

1102
00:52:29,102 --> 00:52:33,106
This kind of talk that somehow
in the context of capitalism,

1103
00:52:33,150 --> 00:52:36,979
AI is gonna be misused,
really frustrates me.

1104
00:52:37,023 --> 00:52:39,025
Whenever we develop
technology,

1105
00:52:39,068 --> 00:52:42,246
whether it's, you know,
coal-burning plants,
whether it's cars,

1106
00:52:42,289 --> 00:52:45,249
there's always that incentive
to move ahead quickly,

1107
00:52:45,292 --> 00:52:47,555
and there's always
the regulatory regime,

1108
00:52:47,599 --> 00:52:50,384
part of the government's job
to balance that.

1109
00:52:50,428 --> 00:52:51,777
AI is no different here.

1110
00:52:53,170 --> 00:52:55,259
Whenever we have
technological advances,

1111
00:52:55,302 --> 00:52:56,695
we need to temper them

1112
00:52:56,738 --> 00:52:59,219
with appropriate
rules and regulations.

1113
00:52:59,524 --> 00:53:00,829
Duh!

1114
00:53:00,873 --> 00:53:03,005
Until there's
a major disaster,

1115
00:53:03,049 --> 00:53:04,311
corporations are gonna
be saying

1116
00:53:04,355 --> 00:53:06,095
"Oh, we don't need to worry
about these things.

1117
00:53:06,139 --> 00:53:07,401
"Trust us, we're the experts.

1118
00:53:07,445 --> 00:53:09,490
"We have humanity's
best interests at heart."

1119
00:53:09,534 --> 00:53:12,624
What AI is really about
is it's a new set of rules

1120
00:53:12,667 --> 00:53:16,018
for companies in terms of
how to be more competitive,

1121
00:53:16,062 --> 00:53:18,543
how to drive more efficiency,
and how to drive growth,

1122
00:53:18,586 --> 00:53:20,632
and creative new
business models and...

1123
00:53:20,675 --> 00:53:22,416
RUSSELL:
Once corporate scientists

1124
00:53:22,460 --> 00:53:23,983
start to dominate the debate,

1125
00:53:24,026 --> 00:53:26,333
it's all over, you've lost.

1126
00:53:26,377 --> 00:53:29,380
You know, they're paid
to deny the existence

1127
00:53:29,423 --> 00:53:31,512
of risks
and negative outcomes.

1128
00:53:32,948 --> 00:53:36,213
SCHMIDHUBER:
At the moment,
almost all AI research

1129
00:53:36,256 --> 00:53:38,345
is about making human lives

1130
00:53:38,389 --> 00:53:41,479
longer, healthier and easier.

1131
00:53:42,219 --> 00:53:43,742
Because the big companies,

1132
00:53:43,785 --> 00:53:45,309
they want to sell you AIs

1133
00:53:45,352 --> 00:53:46,527
that are useful for you,

1134
00:53:46,571 --> 00:53:48,312
and so you are
only going to buy

1135
00:53:48,355 --> 00:53:49,704
those that help you.

1136
00:53:51,402 --> 00:53:53,578
MALONE: The problem of AI
in a capitalist paradigm

1137
00:53:53,621 --> 00:53:56,581
is it's always
gonna be cheaper

1138
00:53:56,624 --> 00:53:59,236
just to get the product
out there when it does the job

1139
00:53:59,279 --> 00:54:02,195
rather than do it safely.

1140
00:54:02,239 --> 00:54:04,676
ROMAN YAMPOLSKIY:
Right now, the way it works,
you have a conference

1141
00:54:04,719 --> 00:54:07,548
with 10,000 researchers,
all of them working

1142
00:54:07,592 --> 00:54:11,204
on developing more capable AI, except, like, 50 people

1143
00:54:11,248 --> 00:54:13,511
who have a tiny workshop
talking about safety

1144
00:54:13,554 --> 00:54:15,687
and controlling
what everyone else is doing.

1145
00:54:16,775 --> 00:54:19,734
No one has a working safety mechanism.

1146
00:54:19,778 --> 00:54:22,259
And no one even has
a prototype for it.

1147
00:54:24,609 --> 00:54:26,175
SCHMIDHUBER:
In the not-so-distant future,

1148
00:54:26,219 --> 00:54:28,439
you will have
all kinds of AIs

1149
00:54:28,482 --> 00:54:31,093
that don't just do
what humans tell them,

1150
00:54:31,137 --> 00:54:33,400
but they will invent
their own goals

1151
00:54:33,444 --> 00:54:35,054
and their own experiments,

1152
00:54:35,097 --> 00:54:37,535
and they will transcend
humankind.

1153
00:54:40,364 --> 00:54:41,756
YAMPOLSKIY:
As of today,

1154
00:54:41,800 --> 00:54:43,454
I would say
it's completely unethical

1155
00:54:43,497 --> 00:54:45,847
to try to develop such a machine and release it.

1156
00:54:48,372 --> 00:54:50,461
We only get one chance
to get it right.

1157
00:54:50,504 --> 00:54:53,464
You screw up,
everything possibly is lost.

1158
00:54:57,381 --> 00:54:59,948
DULLEA: What happens
if we get it wrong?

1159
00:55:01,167 --> 00:55:03,387
The thing that scares me
the most is this AI

1160
00:55:03,430 --> 00:55:06,303
will become the product
of its parents,

1161
00:55:06,346 --> 00:55:09,131
in the same way
that you are and I am.

1162
00:55:09,175 --> 00:55:11,264
Let's ask who
those parents are.

1163
00:55:11,308 --> 00:55:12,657
Right?

1164
00:55:12,700 --> 00:55:15,312
Chances are they're either
gonna be military parents

1165
00:55:15,355 --> 00:55:17,314
or they're gonna be
business parents.

1166
00:55:17,357 --> 00:55:20,142
If they're business parents,
they're asking the AI

1167
00:55:20,186 --> 00:55:22,449
to become something

1168
00:55:22,493 --> 00:55:25,626
that can make a lot of money.

1169
00:55:27,672 --> 00:55:29,848
So they're teaching it greed.

1170
00:55:32,198 --> 00:55:35,854
Military parents are gonna teach it to kill.

1171
00:55:38,683 --> 00:55:41,468
Truly superhuman intelligence

1172
00:55:41,512 --> 00:55:44,079
is so much... Is so super.

1173
00:55:44,123 --> 00:55:45,690
It's so much better
than we are

1174
00:55:45,733 --> 00:55:49,563
that the first country or company to get there

1175
00:55:49,607 --> 00:55:51,217
has the winner-take-all advantage.

1176
00:55:51,260 --> 00:55:54,002
[APPLAUSE]

1177
00:55:54,046 --> 00:55:56,875
[SPEAKING RUSSIAN]

1178
00:56:14,066 --> 00:56:17,809
Because there's such
an arms race in AI globally,

1179
00:56:17,852 --> 00:56:19,898
and that's both literally,
in terms of building

1180
00:56:19,941 --> 00:56:22,335
weapons systems,
but also figuratively

1181
00:56:22,379 --> 00:56:24,685
with folks like Putin
and the Chinese saying

1182
00:56:24,729 --> 00:56:28,036
whoever dominates AI
is gonna dominate the economy

1183
00:56:28,080 --> 00:56:30,517
in the 21st century.

1184
00:56:30,561 --> 00:56:33,520
I don't think we have a choice
to put the brakes on,

1185
00:56:33,564 --> 00:56:36,001
to stop developing
and researching.

1186
00:56:36,044 --> 00:56:39,047
We can build the technology,
we can do the research,

1187
00:56:39,091 --> 00:56:40,745
and imbue it with our values,

1188
00:56:40,788 --> 00:56:43,356
but realistically,
totalitarian regimes

1189
00:56:43,400 --> 00:56:45,489
will imbue the technology
with their values.

1190
00:56:46,707 --> 00:56:49,406
FEMALE REPORTER:
Israel, Russia, the US
and China

1191
00:56:49,449 --> 00:56:51,146
are all contestants

1192
00:56:51,190 --> 00:56:54,193
in what's being described
as a new global arms race.

1193
00:56:56,413 --> 00:56:58,371
All countries,
whether they admit it or not,

1194
00:56:58,415 --> 00:57:00,765
are going to develop
lethal autonomous weapons.

1195
00:57:03,028 --> 00:57:06,423
And is that really
a capability that we want

1196
00:57:06,466 --> 00:57:08,381
in the hands
of a corporate nation state

1197
00:57:08,425 --> 00:57:10,252
as opposed to a nation state?

1198
00:57:10,296 --> 00:57:12,124
The reality is
if Facebook or Google

1199
00:57:12,167 --> 00:57:14,082
wanted to start an army,

1200
00:57:14,126 --> 00:57:17,912
they would have
technologically
superior capabilities

1201
00:57:17,956 --> 00:57:19,958
than any other nation
on the planet.

1202
00:57:21,481 --> 00:57:24,832
DULLEA: Some AI scientists
are so concerned,

1203
00:57:24,876 --> 00:57:26,965
they produced this
dramatized video

1204
00:57:27,008 --> 00:57:29,054
to warn of the risks.

1205
00:57:29,097 --> 00:57:31,796
Your kids probably have
one of these, right?

1206
00:57:33,493 --> 00:57:34,929
Not quite.RUSSELL: We produced

1207
00:57:34,973 --> 00:57:37,454
the Slaughterbot video
to illustrate

1208
00:57:37,497 --> 00:57:39,151
the risk
of autonomous weapons.

1209
00:57:39,194 --> 00:57:41,632
That skill is all AI.

1210
00:57:42,676 --> 00:57:44,025
It's flying itself.

1211
00:57:44,983 --> 00:57:47,072
There are people within
the AI community

1212
00:57:47,115 --> 00:57:48,639
who wish I would shut up.

1213
00:57:49,814 --> 00:57:52,294
People who think that making the video is

1214
00:57:52,338 --> 00:57:54,775
a little bit treasonous.

1215
00:57:54,819 --> 00:57:57,517
Just like any mobile device
these days,

1216
00:57:57,561 --> 00:57:59,780
it has cameras and sensors.

1217
00:57:59,824 --> 00:58:03,044
And just like your phones
and social media apps,

1218
00:58:03,088 --> 00:58:04,742
it does facial recognition.

1219
00:58:04,785 --> 00:58:07,353
Up until now,
the arms races tended to be

1220
00:58:07,396 --> 00:58:09,616
bigger, more powerful,
more expensive,

1221
00:58:09,660 --> 00:58:11,618
faster jets that cost more.

1222
00:58:12,358 --> 00:58:15,622
AI means that you could have

1223
00:58:15,666 --> 00:58:17,885
very small, cheap weapons

1224
00:58:17,929 --> 00:58:19,757
that are very efficient
at doing

1225
00:58:19,800 --> 00:58:21,933
one very simple job, like

1226
00:58:22,803 --> 00:58:24,718
finding you in a crowd
and killing you.

1227
00:58:25,545 --> 00:58:27,852
This is how it works.

1228
00:58:35,642 --> 00:58:37,470
[GASPING, APPLAUSE]

1229
00:58:37,514 --> 00:58:40,560
Every single major advance
in human technology

1230
00:58:40,604 --> 00:58:43,084
has always been weaponized.

1231
00:58:43,128 --> 00:58:48,046
And the idea of weaponized AI,
I think, is terrifying.

1232
00:58:48,089 --> 00:58:50,701
Trained as a team,
they can penetrate

1233
00:58:50,744 --> 00:58:52,920
buildings, cars, trains,

1234
00:58:52,964 --> 00:58:57,316
evade people, bullets...
They cannot be stopped.

1235
00:58:57,359 --> 00:58:59,536
RUSSELL: There are lots of
weapons that kill people.

1236
00:58:59,579 --> 00:59:01,059
Machine guns
can kill people,

1237
00:59:01,102 --> 00:59:03,844
but they require
a human being
to carry and point them.

1238
00:59:03,888 --> 00:59:06,368
With autonomous weapons,
you don't need a human

1239
00:59:06,412 --> 00:59:08,066
to carry them
or supervise them.

1240
00:59:08,936 --> 00:59:12,723
You just program and then off they go.

1241
00:59:12,766 --> 00:59:15,377
So you can create the effect of an army

1242
00:59:15,421 --> 00:59:16,770
carrying a million machine guns,

1243
00:59:16,814 --> 00:59:18,903
uh, with two guys and a truck.

1244
00:59:23,429 --> 00:59:25,866
Putin said that
the first person to develop

1245
00:59:25,910 --> 00:59:29,653
strong artificial intelligence
will rule the world.

1246
00:59:29,696 --> 00:59:31,568
When world leaders use terms

1247
00:59:31,611 --> 00:59:33,570
like "rule the world,"

1248
00:59:33,613 --> 00:59:35,572
I think you gotta pay attention to it.

1249
00:59:43,928 --> 00:59:47,105
Now, that is an air strike
of surgical precision.

1250
00:59:47,148 --> 00:59:50,108
[CHEERING AND APPLAUSE]

1251
00:59:50,151 --> 00:59:53,894
I've been campaigning against
these weapons since 2007,

1252
00:59:53,938 --> 00:59:56,027
and there's three main
sets of arguments.

1253
00:59:56,070 --> 00:59:58,899
There's the moral arguments,
there's arguments

1254
00:59:58,943 --> 01:00:01,598
about not complying
with the laws of war,

1255
01:00:01,641 --> 01:00:03,904
and there are arguments
about how they will change

1256
01:00:03,948 --> 01:00:05,514
global security of the planet.

1257
01:00:05,558 --> 01:00:07,604
We need new regulations.

1258
01:00:07,647 --> 01:00:11,433
We need to really think
about it now, yesterday.

1259
01:00:11,477 --> 01:00:14,262
Some of the world's leaders
in artificial intelligence

1260
01:00:14,306 --> 01:00:17,439
are urging the United Nations
to ban the development

1261
01:00:17,483 --> 01:00:18,919
of autonomous weapons,

1262
01:00:18,963 --> 01:00:20,921
otherwise known
as killer robots.

1263
01:00:20,965 --> 01:00:23,750
MALE REPORTER: In the letter
they say "once developed,

1264
01:00:23,794 --> 01:00:26,013
"they will permit
armed conflict to be fought

1265
01:00:26,057 --> 01:00:29,669
"at timescales faster
than humans can comprehend."

1266
01:00:29,713 --> 01:00:32,237
BOOCH: I'm a signatory
to that letter.

1267
01:00:32,280 --> 01:00:33,717
My philosophy is,

1268
01:00:33,760 --> 01:00:36,502
and I hope the governments
of the world enforce this,

1269
01:00:36,545 --> 01:00:39,331
that as long as
a human life is involved,

1270
01:00:39,374 --> 01:00:41,420
then a human needs to be
in the loop.

1271
01:00:43,988 --> 01:00:47,078
Anyone with a 3D printer
and a computer

1272
01:00:47,121 --> 01:00:48,993
can have a lethal
autonomous weapon.

1273
01:00:49,036 --> 01:00:51,691
If it's accessible
to everyone on the planet,

1274
01:00:51,735 --> 01:00:53,954
then compliance, for example,

1275
01:00:53,998 --> 01:00:56,783
would be nearly impossible
to track.

1276
01:00:56,827 --> 01:00:58,785
What the hell
are you doing? Stop!

1277
01:00:58,829 --> 01:01:00,657
You're shooting into thin air.

1278
01:01:00,700 --> 01:01:02,223
HARRIS: When you're imagining

1279
01:01:02,267 --> 01:01:03,877
waging war in the future,

1280
01:01:03,921 --> 01:01:06,053
where soldiers are robots,

1281
01:01:06,097 --> 01:01:09,796
and we pose no risk
of engagement to ourselves...

1282
01:01:09,840 --> 01:01:12,494
When war becomes
just like a video game,

1283
01:01:12,538 --> 01:01:14,671
as it has
incrementally already,

1284
01:01:15,280 --> 01:01:16,716
it's a real concern.

1285
01:01:19,023 --> 01:01:21,199
When we don't have skin in the game, quite literally...

1286
01:01:22,200 --> 01:01:23,723
[SCREAMS]

1287
01:01:23,767 --> 01:01:26,770
...when all of this is being run from a terminal

1288
01:01:26,813 --> 01:01:29,294
thousands of miles away from the battlefield...

1289
01:01:33,080 --> 01:01:35,953
...that could lower the bar for waging war

1290
01:01:35,996 --> 01:01:37,606
to a point where we would recognize

1291
01:01:37,650 --> 01:01:39,913
that we have become monsters.

1292
01:01:50,707 --> 01:01:51,882
Who are you?

1293
01:01:53,144 --> 01:01:55,233
Hey! Hey!

1294
01:01:56,582 --> 01:01:58,062
[GUNSHOT]

1295
01:01:58,976 --> 01:02:01,543
Having been
a former fighter pilot,

1296
01:02:01,587 --> 01:02:03,589
I have also seen
people make mistakes

1297
01:02:03,632 --> 01:02:05,765
and kill innocent people

1298
01:02:05,809 --> 01:02:07,898
who should not
have been killed.

1299
01:02:07,941 --> 01:02:11,205
One day in the future,
it will be more reliable

1300
01:02:11,249 --> 01:02:13,512
to have a machine do it
than a human do it.

1301
01:02:13,555 --> 01:02:15,035
The idea of robots

1302
01:02:15,079 --> 01:02:17,734
who can kill humans
on their own

1303
01:02:17,777 --> 01:02:20,301
has been a science fiction
staple for decades.

1304
01:02:20,345 --> 01:02:23,043
There are a number of
these systems around already,

1305
01:02:23,087 --> 01:02:24,784
uh, that work autonomously.

1306
01:02:24,828 --> 01:02:26,873
But that's called
supervised autonomy

1307
01:02:26,917 --> 01:02:30,224
because somebody's there
to switch it on and off.

1308
01:02:30,268 --> 01:02:32,052
MALE REPORTER: What's only
been seen in Hollywood

1309
01:02:32,096 --> 01:02:35,839
could soon be coming
to a battlefield near you.

1310
01:02:35,882 --> 01:02:37,797
The Pentagon investing
billions of dollars

1311
01:02:37,841 --> 01:02:39,407
to develop autonomous weapons,

1312
01:02:39,451 --> 01:02:41,845
machines that could one day
kill on their own.

1313
01:02:41,888 --> 01:02:45,239
But the Pentagon insists humans will decide to strike.

1314
01:02:45,283 --> 01:02:48,460
MALONE: Once you get AI
into military hardware,

1315
01:02:49,853 --> 01:02:51,985
you've got to make it
make the decisions,

1316
01:02:52,029 --> 01:02:53,944
otherwise there's no point
in having it.

1317
01:02:55,119 --> 01:02:58,035
One of the benefits of AI is that it's quicker than us.

1318
01:03:00,037 --> 01:03:02,474
Once we're in a proper fight and that switch

1319
01:03:02,517 --> 01:03:04,476
that keeps the human in the loop,

1320
01:03:04,519 --> 01:03:07,044
we better switch it off,
because if you don't,
you lose.

1321
01:03:10,047 --> 01:03:11,788
These will make
the battlefield

1322
01:03:11,831 --> 01:03:13,441
too fast for humans.

1323
01:03:19,273 --> 01:03:21,493
If there's no human involved at all,

1324
01:03:21,536 --> 01:03:25,279
if command and control have gone over to autonomy,

1325
01:03:25,323 --> 01:03:27,716
we could trigger a war and it could be finished

1326
01:03:27,760 --> 01:03:30,110
in 20 minutes with massive devastation,

1327
01:03:30,154 --> 01:03:32,460
and nobody knew about it before it started.

1328
01:03:40,251 --> 01:03:44,298
DULLEA: So who decides what
we should do in the future

1329
01:03:45,560 --> 01:03:46,561
now?

1330
01:03:48,389 --> 01:03:51,958
YAMPOLSKIY:
From Big Bang till now,
billions of years.

1331
01:03:52,959 --> 01:03:56,658
This is the only time
a person can steer

1332
01:03:56,702 --> 01:03:58,225
the future
of the whole humanity.

1333
01:04:12,892 --> 01:04:15,982
TEGMARK:
Maybe we should worry that
we humans aren't wise enough

1334
01:04:16,026 --> 01:04:17,636
to handle this much power.

1335
01:04:20,378 --> 01:04:23,294
GLEISER: Who is actually
going to make the choices,

1336
01:04:23,337 --> 01:04:26,950
and in the name of whom
are you actually speaking?

1337
01:04:34,087 --> 01:04:37,482
If we, the rest of society,
fail to actually

1338
01:04:37,525 --> 01:04:39,788
really join this conversation
in a meaningful way

1339
01:04:39,832 --> 01:04:42,182
and be part of the decision,

1340
01:04:42,226 --> 01:04:45,098
then we know whose values
are gonna go into these

1341
01:04:45,142 --> 01:04:47,448
super-intelligent beings.

1342
01:04:47,492 --> 01:04:50,103
Red Bull.Yes, Deon.

1343
01:04:50,843 --> 01:04:52,584
Red Bull.

1344
01:04:52,627 --> 01:04:56,196
TEGMARK: It's going to be decided by some tech nerds

1345
01:04:56,240 --> 01:04:58,024
who've had too much Red Bull to drink...

1346
01:04:58,068 --> 01:04:59,939
who I don't think
have any particular

1347
01:04:59,983 --> 01:05:01,723
qualifications to speak

1348
01:05:01,767 --> 01:05:03,247
on behalf of all humanity.

1349
01:05:05,945 --> 01:05:10,080
Once you are in
the excitement of
discovery...

1350
01:05:11,516 --> 01:05:12,778
Come on!

1351
01:05:12,821 --> 01:05:14,562
...you sort of
turn a blind eye

1352
01:05:14,606 --> 01:05:16,434
to all these
more moralistic questions,

1353
01:05:16,477 --> 01:05:21,091
like how is this going to
impact society as a whole?

1354
01:05:23,223 --> 01:05:25,182
And you do it because you can.

1355
01:05:29,664 --> 01:05:31,579
MALONE: And the scientists
are pushing this forward

1356
01:05:31,623 --> 01:05:34,582
because they can see
the genuine benefits

1357
01:05:34,626 --> 01:05:35,670
that this will bring.

1358
01:05:36,845 --> 01:05:38,412
And they're also
really, really excited.

1359
01:05:38,456 --> 01:05:41,241
I mean, you don't...
You don't go into science

1360
01:05:41,285 --> 01:05:43,852
because, oh, well,
you couldn't
be a football player,

1361
01:05:43,896 --> 01:05:45,550
"Hell, I'll be a scientist."

1362
01:05:45,593 --> 01:05:47,291
You go in because
that's what you love
and it's really exciting.

1363
01:05:49,423 --> 01:05:50,947
Oh! It's alive!

1364
01:05:50,990 --> 01:05:53,253
It's alive! It's alive!

1365
01:05:53,297 --> 01:05:54,646
It's alive!

1366
01:05:54,689 --> 01:05:55,995
YAMPOLSKIY:
We're switching

1367
01:05:56,039 --> 01:05:57,518
from being creation
to being God.

1368
01:05:57,562 --> 01:06:00,391
Now I know what it feels like
to be God!

1369
01:06:00,434 --> 01:06:02,219
YAMPOLSKIY:
If you study theology,

1370
01:06:02,262 --> 01:06:05,787
one thing you learn
is that it is never the case

1371
01:06:05,831 --> 01:06:07,528
that God
successfully manages

1372
01:06:07,572 --> 01:06:10,270
to control its creation.

1373
01:06:14,144 --> 01:06:16,189
DULLEA: We're not there yet,

1374
01:06:16,233 --> 01:06:17,495
but if we do create

1375
01:06:17,538 --> 01:06:19,671
artificial general
intelligence,

1376
01:06:20,802 --> 01:06:22,456
can we maintain control?

1377
01:06:24,676 --> 01:06:27,287
If you create a self-aware AI,

1378
01:06:27,331 --> 01:06:29,637
the first thing
it's gonna want

1379
01:06:29,681 --> 01:06:31,204
is independence.

1380
01:06:31,248 --> 01:06:34,642
At least, the one intelligence
that we all know is ourselves.

1381
01:06:34,686 --> 01:06:38,037
And we know that we would not wanna be doing the bidding

1382
01:06:38,081 --> 01:06:39,996
of some other intelligence.

1383
01:06:41,867 --> 01:06:45,566
We have no reason to believe that it will be friendly...

1384
01:06:56,186 --> 01:06:58,579
...or that it will have goals and aspirations

1385
01:06:58,623 --> 01:07:00,277
that align with ours.

1386
01:07:04,020 --> 01:07:06,500
So how long before
there's a robot revolution

1387
01:07:06,544 --> 01:07:08,024
or an AI revolution?

1388
01:07:18,077 --> 01:07:20,775
We are in a world today where it is

1389
01:07:20,819 --> 01:07:22,473
absolutely a foot race

1390
01:07:22,516 --> 01:07:25,693
to go as fast as possible
toward creating

1391
01:07:25,737 --> 01:07:28,305
an artificial
general intelligence

1392
01:07:28,348 --> 01:07:31,569
and there don't seem to be
any brakes being applied
anywhere in sight.

1393
01:07:33,571 --> 01:07:34,789
It's crazy.

1394
01:07:42,493 --> 01:07:44,712
YAMPOLSKIY: I think
it's important to honestly

1395
01:07:44,756 --> 01:07:46,888
discuss such issues.

1396
01:07:46,932 --> 01:07:48,977
It might be
a little too late to make

1397
01:07:49,021 --> 01:07:51,371
this conversation afterwards.

1398
01:07:59,423 --> 01:08:04,297
It's important to remember
that intelligence is not evil

1399
01:08:04,341 --> 01:08:06,343
and it is also not good.

1400
01:08:07,170 --> 01:08:09,737
Intelligence gives power.

1401
01:08:09,781 --> 01:08:12,305
We are more powerful than tigers on this planet,

1402
01:08:12,349 --> 01:08:14,525
not because we have sharper claws

1403
01:08:14,568 --> 01:08:16,570
or bigger biceps,
because we're smarter.

1404
01:08:17,615 --> 01:08:19,704
CHALMERS: We do take
the attitude that ants

1405
01:08:19,747 --> 01:08:23,403
matter a bit and fish matter a bit, but humans matter more.

1406
01:08:23,447 --> 01:08:25,405
Why? Because we're
more intelligent,

1407
01:08:25,449 --> 01:08:27,581
more sophisticated,
more conscious.

1408
01:08:27,625 --> 01:08:30,236
Once you've got systems which
are more intelligent than us,

1409
01:08:30,280 --> 01:08:32,282
maybe they're simply gonna matter more.

1410
01:08:41,421 --> 01:08:44,598
As humans, we live
in a world of microorganisms.

1411
01:08:46,122 --> 01:08:48,124
They're life, but if a microorganism

1412
01:08:48,167 --> 01:08:50,517
becomes a nuisance, we take an antibiotic

1413
01:08:50,561 --> 01:08:53,129
and we destroy billions of them at once.

1414
01:08:57,220 --> 01:08:59,526
If you were an artificial intelligence,

1415
01:08:59,570 --> 01:09:01,137
wouldn't you look
at every little human

1416
01:09:01,180 --> 01:09:03,008
that has this
very limited view

1417
01:09:03,051 --> 01:09:05,402
kind of like
we look at microorganisms?

1418
01:09:09,188 --> 01:09:10,494
DULLEA: Maybe I would.

1419
01:09:13,410 --> 01:09:16,152
Maybe human insignificance

1420
01:09:16,195 --> 01:09:18,632
is the biggest threat of all.

1421
01:09:21,505 --> 01:09:24,247
TEGMARK:
Sometimes when I talk
about AI risk, people go,

1422
01:09:24,290 --> 01:09:26,162
"Shh! Max,
don't talk like that.

1423
01:09:26,205 --> 01:09:28,338
"That's Luddite
scaremongering."

1424
01:09:28,381 --> 01:09:30,035
But it's not scaremongering.

1425
01:09:30,078 --> 01:09:33,169
It's what we at MIT
call safety engineering.

1426
01:09:35,867 --> 01:09:39,218
I mean, think about it, before NASA launched the Apollo 11 moon mission,

1427
01:09:39,262 --> 01:09:40,785
they systematically thought through

1428
01:09:40,828 --> 01:09:43,004
everything that could go wrong
when you put a bunch of people

1429
01:09:43,048 --> 01:09:45,616
on top of explosive fuel tanks
and launched them somewhere

1430
01:09:45,659 --> 01:09:48,532
where no one can help them.
Was that scaremongering?

1431
01:09:48,575 --> 01:09:51,012
No, that was precisely
the safety engineering

1432
01:09:51,056 --> 01:09:54,538
that guaranteed
the success of the mission.

1433
01:09:54,581 --> 01:09:58,498
That's precisely the strategy I think we have to take with AGI.

1434
01:09:58,542 --> 01:10:00,805
Think through everything that could go wrong

1435
01:10:00,848 --> 01:10:02,720
to make sure it goes right.

1436
01:10:06,898 --> 01:10:08,856
I am who I am
because of the movie

1437
01:10:08,900 --> 01:10:11,337
2001: A Space Odyssey.

1438
01:10:11,381 --> 01:10:14,601
Aged 14, it was
an eye-opener for me.

1439
01:10:14,645 --> 01:10:17,343
That movie is the best
of all science fiction

1440
01:10:17,387 --> 01:10:20,912
with its predictions
for how AI would evolve.

1441
01:10:23,088 --> 01:10:24,872
But in reality,

1442
01:10:24,916 --> 01:10:27,658
if something is sufficiently
far in the future,

1443
01:10:27,701 --> 01:10:30,748
we can't imagine
what the world will be like,

1444
01:10:30,791 --> 01:10:33,229
so we actually can't say
anything sensible

1445
01:10:33,272 --> 01:10:34,447
about what the issues are.

1446
01:10:36,014 --> 01:10:37,233
LITTMAN: Worrying about
super-intelligence safety

1447
01:10:37,276 --> 01:10:39,278
is a little like
worrying about

1448
01:10:39,322 --> 01:10:40,932
how you're
gonna install seat belts

1449
01:10:40,975 --> 01:10:42,542
in transporter devices.

1450
01:10:42,586 --> 01:10:44,457
Like in Star Trek,
where you can just zip

1451
01:10:44,501 --> 01:10:46,242
from one place to another.

1452
01:10:46,285 --> 01:10:48,331
Um, maybe there's
some dangers to that,

1453
01:10:48,374 --> 01:10:49,941
so we should have
seatbelts, right?

1454
01:10:49,984 --> 01:10:51,986
But it's of course very silly
because we don't know enough

1455
01:10:52,030 --> 01:10:53,466
about how
transporter technology

1456
01:10:53,510 --> 01:10:55,338
might look to be able to say

1457
01:10:55,381 --> 01:10:57,427
whether seatbelts even apply.

1458
01:10:58,993 --> 01:11:01,648
GLEISER: To say that there
won't be a problem because

1459
01:11:02,954 --> 01:11:04,869
the unknowns are so vast,

1460
01:11:04,912 --> 01:11:07,567
that we don't even know
where the problem
is gonna be,

1461
01:11:08,829 --> 01:11:10,570
that is crazy.

1462
01:11:15,706 --> 01:11:18,056
I think conversation is
probably the only
way forward here.

1463
01:11:18,099 --> 01:11:20,014
At the moment,
among ourselves,

1464
01:11:20,058 --> 01:11:21,364
and when the time comes,

1465
01:11:21,407 --> 01:11:23,627
with the emerging
artificial intelligences.

1466
01:11:25,716 --> 01:11:27,152
So as soon as
there is anything

1467
01:11:27,195 --> 01:11:28,719
remotely in that ballpark,

1468
01:11:28,762 --> 01:11:30,721
we should start trying
to have a conversation

1469
01:11:30,764 --> 01:11:32,636
with it somehow.

1470
01:11:33,637 --> 01:11:35,900
Dog. Dog.SAGAR: Yeah.

1471
01:11:35,943 --> 01:11:38,946
One of the things we hope
to do with Baby X is to try

1472
01:11:38,990 --> 01:11:41,906
to get a better insight
into our own nature.

1473
01:11:43,777 --> 01:11:46,302
She's designed
to learn autonomously.

1474
01:11:47,564 --> 01:11:50,610
She can be plugged
into the Internet,

1475
01:11:50,654 --> 01:11:54,266
click on webpages by herself
and see what happens,

1476
01:11:54,310 --> 01:11:56,442
kind of learn how we learn.

1477
01:11:57,400 --> 01:12:00,707
If we make this
super fantastic AI,

1478
01:12:00,751 --> 01:12:04,363
it may well help us become
better versions of ourselves,

1479
01:12:06,365 --> 01:12:08,106
help us evolve.

1480
01:12:15,505 --> 01:12:17,550
It will have societal effects.

1481
01:12:19,117 --> 01:12:20,597
Is it to be feared?

1482
01:12:22,381 --> 01:12:24,035
Or is it something
to learn from?

1483
01:12:28,648 --> 01:12:31,999
DULLEA: So when might
we be faced with machines

1484
01:12:32,043 --> 01:12:36,656
that are as smart,
smarter than we are?

1485
01:12:38,571 --> 01:12:41,661
I think one of the ways
to think about
the near future of AI

1486
01:12:41,705 --> 01:12:44,708
is what I would call
the event horizon.

1487
01:12:46,231 --> 01:12:48,015
People have heard of black holes,

1488
01:12:48,059 --> 01:12:50,191
this super dense point where

1489
01:12:50,235 --> 01:12:52,977
if you get too close, you get sucked in.

1490
01:12:53,020 --> 01:12:55,893
There is a boundary. Once you cross that boundary,

1491
01:12:55,936 --> 01:12:58,025
there is no way back.

1492
01:12:58,069 --> 01:13:02,900
What makes that dangerous is you can't tell where it is.

1493
01:13:02,943 --> 01:13:05,816
And I think AI as a technology
is gonna be like that,

1494
01:13:05,859 --> 01:13:09,210
that there will be a point
where the logic of the money

1495
01:13:09,254 --> 01:13:11,430
and the power and the promise

1496
01:13:11,474 --> 01:13:14,781
will be such that
once we cross that boundary,

1497
01:13:14,825 --> 01:13:16,783
we will then be
into that future.

1498
01:13:16,827 --> 01:13:19,395
There will be no way back,
politically, economically

1499
01:13:19,438 --> 01:13:21,658
or even in terms
of what we want.

1500
01:13:21,701 --> 01:13:24,008
But we need to be worrying
about it before we reach

1501
01:13:24,051 --> 01:13:27,315
the event horizon,
and we don't know where it is.

1502
01:13:27,359 --> 01:13:29,405
I don't think it's gonna
happen any time soon.

1503
01:13:29,448 --> 01:13:31,145
The next few decades.

1504
01:13:31,189 --> 01:13:32,364
Twenty-five to 50 years.

1505
01:13:32,408 --> 01:13:33,452
A few hundred years.

1506
01:13:33,496 --> 01:13:34,584
It's over
the next few decades.

1507
01:13:34,627 --> 01:13:35,802
Not in my lifetime.

1508
01:13:35,846 --> 01:13:38,239
Nobody knows.
But it doesn't really matter.

1509
01:13:38,283 --> 01:13:41,634
Whether it's years
or 100 years,
the problem is the same.

1510
01:13:41,678 --> 01:13:44,594
It's just as real
and we'll need
all this time to solve it.

1511
01:13:49,816 --> 01:13:53,733
TEGMARK:
History is just full of
over-hyped tech predictions.

1512
01:13:53,777 --> 01:13:55,605
Like, where are
those flying cars

1513
01:13:55,648 --> 01:13:57,389
that were supposed
to be here, right?

1514
01:13:57,433 --> 01:14:00,740
But it's also full
of the opposite,

1515
01:14:00,784 --> 01:14:03,134
when people said,
"Oh, never gonna happen."

1516
01:14:07,878 --> 01:14:10,968
I'm embarrassed as a physicist that Ernest Rutherford,

1517
01:14:11,011 --> 01:14:13,274
one of the greatest nuclear physicists of all time said

1518
01:14:13,318 --> 01:14:15,929
that nuclear energy was never gonna happen.

1519
01:14:17,061 --> 01:14:18,932
And the very next day,

1520
01:14:18,976 --> 01:14:22,458
Leo Szilard invents
the nuclear chain reaction.

1521
01:14:22,501 --> 01:14:24,677
So if someone says
they are completely sure

1522
01:14:24,721 --> 01:14:27,114
something is never
gonna happen,

1523
01:14:27,158 --> 01:14:29,377
even though it's consistent
with the laws of physics,

1524
01:14:29,421 --> 01:14:31,510
I'm like, "Yeah, right."

1525
01:14:36,646 --> 01:14:38,430
HARRIS: We're not there yet.

1526
01:14:38,474 --> 01:14:41,477
We haven't built a super-intelligent AI.

1527
01:14:45,002 --> 01:14:47,483
And even if we stipulated that it won't happen

1528
01:14:47,526 --> 01:14:49,528
shorter than 50 years from now, right?

1529
01:14:49,572 --> 01:14:52,183
So we have 50 years to think about this.

1530
01:14:52,226 --> 01:14:53,706
Well...

1531
01:14:53,750 --> 01:14:56,143
it's nowhere written
that 50 years

1532
01:14:56,187 --> 01:14:59,059
is enough time to figure out
how to do this safely.

1533
01:15:01,018 --> 01:15:02,628
CAMERON: I actually think
it's going to take

1534
01:15:02,672 --> 01:15:05,196
some extreme negative example

1535
01:15:05,239 --> 01:15:08,504
of the technology
for everyone to pull back

1536
01:15:08,547 --> 01:15:11,115
and realize that
we've got to get this thing

1537
01:15:11,158 --> 01:15:13,334
under control, we've got to have constraints.

1538
01:15:13,378 --> 01:15:16,207
We are living
in a science fiction world
and we're all,

1539
01:15:16,250 --> 01:15:20,037
um, in this big, kind of
social, tactical experiment,

1540
01:15:20,080 --> 01:15:22,692
experimenting on ourselves,
recklessly,

1541
01:15:22,735 --> 01:15:25,172
like no doctor would
ever dream of doing.

1542
01:15:25,216 --> 01:15:26,522
We're injecting ourselves

1543
01:15:26,565 --> 01:15:28,262
with everything that
we come up with

1544
01:15:28,306 --> 01:15:29,655
to see what happens.

1545
01:15:31,875 --> 01:15:34,486
LITTMAN: Clearly,
the thought process is...

1546
01:15:34,530 --> 01:15:36,140
You're creating
learning robots.

1547
01:15:36,183 --> 01:15:38,534
Learning robots are exactly
what lead to Skynet.

1548
01:15:38,577 --> 01:15:40,884
Now I've got a choice,
right? I can say,

1549
01:15:40,927 --> 01:15:42,842
"Don't worry,
I'm not good at my job.

1550
01:15:43,887 --> 01:15:45,932
"You have nothing to fear
because I suck at this

1551
01:15:45,976 --> 01:15:48,108
"and I'm not gonna
actually accomplish anything."

1552
01:15:48,152 --> 01:15:50,458
Or I have to say, "You know,

1553
01:15:50,502 --> 01:15:51,938
"You're right,
we're all gonna die,

1554
01:15:51,982 --> 01:15:53,810
"but it's gonna be
sort of fun to watch,

1555
01:15:53,853 --> 01:15:56,856
"and it'd be good to be
one of the people
in the front row."

1556
01:15:56,900 --> 01:16:00,033
So yeah, I don't have
a terrific answer
to these things.

1557
01:16:02,122 --> 01:16:04,734
The truth, obviously,
is somewhere in between.

1558
01:16:07,171 --> 01:16:09,260
DULLEA:
Can there be an in-between?

1559
01:16:10,435 --> 01:16:13,264
Or are we facing
a new world order?

1560
01:16:15,614 --> 01:16:18,965
I have some colleagues who
are fine with AI taking over

1561
01:16:19,009 --> 01:16:21,228
and even causing
human extinction,

1562
01:16:21,272 --> 01:16:22,752
as long as we feel

1563
01:16:22,795 --> 01:16:25,189
that those AIs
are our worthy ancestors.

1564
01:16:28,453 --> 01:16:32,065
SCHMIDHUBER:
In the long run, humans
are not going to remain

1565
01:16:32,109 --> 01:16:34,372
the crown of creation.

1566
01:16:36,679 --> 01:16:38,594
But that's okay.

1567
01:16:38,637 --> 01:16:41,727
Because there is still beauty

1568
01:16:41,771 --> 01:16:44,469
and grandeur and greatness

1569
01:16:44,512 --> 01:16:47,211
in realizing that you are

1570
01:16:48,212 --> 01:16:51,955
a tiny part of

1571
01:16:51,998 --> 01:16:55,045
a much grander scheme
which is leading the universe

1572
01:16:55,088 --> 01:16:59,223
from lower complexity
towards higher complexity.

1573
01:17:07,318 --> 01:17:11,017
CAMERON: We could be rapidly approaching a precipice

1574
01:17:11,061 --> 01:17:13,063
for the human race where we find

1575
01:17:13,106 --> 01:17:16,762
that our ultimate destiny is to have been

1576
01:17:16,806 --> 01:17:20,113
the forebearer of the true

1577
01:17:20,157 --> 01:17:24,161
emergent, evolutionary, intelligent sort of beings.

1578
01:17:26,990 --> 01:17:30,515
So we may just be here
to give birth

1579
01:17:30,558 --> 01:17:32,735
to the child of this...
Of this machine...

1580
01:17:32,778 --> 01:17:34,345
Machine civilization.

1581
01:17:37,957 --> 01:17:39,785
CHALMERS: Selfishly,
as a human, of course,

1582
01:17:39,829 --> 01:17:41,961
I want humans to stick around.

1583
01:17:44,355 --> 01:17:47,837
But maybe that's a very local, parochial point of view.

1584
01:17:49,795 --> 01:17:52,102
Maybe viewed from the point
of view of the universe,

1585
01:17:52,145 --> 01:17:53,973
it's a better universe
with our...

1586
01:17:54,017 --> 01:17:57,020
With our super-intelligent
descendants.

1587
01:18:03,766 --> 01:18:06,377
RUSSELL: Our field
is likely to succeed

1588
01:18:06,420 --> 01:18:09,772
in its goal to achieve
general purpose intelligence.

1589
01:18:12,209 --> 01:18:16,082
We now have the capability
to radically modify

1590
01:18:16,126 --> 01:18:17,954
the economic structure
of the world,

1591
01:18:17,997 --> 01:18:19,825
the role of human beings
in the world

1592
01:18:19,869 --> 01:18:22,480
and, potentially,
human control over the world.

1593
01:18:34,666 --> 01:18:37,277
The idea was
that he is taken in

1594
01:18:37,321 --> 01:18:39,192
by godlike entities,

1595
01:18:39,236 --> 01:18:42,239
creatures of pure energy
and intelligence.

1596
01:18:43,893 --> 01:18:47,897
They put him in what you could describe as a human zoo.

1597
01:18:49,812 --> 01:18:51,901
DULLEA: The end
of the astronaut's journey.

1598
01:18:56,601 --> 01:18:58,081
Did he travel through time?

1599
01:18:58,864 --> 01:19:00,561
To the future?

1600
01:19:00,605 --> 01:19:04,827
Were those godlike entities
the descendants of HAL?

1601
01:19:06,089 --> 01:19:09,092
Artificial intelligence
that you can't switch off,

1602
01:19:10,658 --> 01:19:13,879
that keeps learning
and learning until

1603
01:19:14,488 --> 01:19:16,316
they're running the zoo,

1604
01:19:16,360 --> 01:19:18,144
the universe,

1605
01:19:18,188 --> 01:19:19,363
everything.

1606
01:19:22,061 --> 01:19:26,022
Is that Kubrick's
most profound prophecy?

1607
01:19:27,110 --> 01:19:28,154
Maybe.

1608
01:19:30,548 --> 01:19:32,985
But take it from an old man.

1609
01:19:33,029 --> 01:19:35,466
If HAL is close
to being amongst us,

1610
01:19:36,510 --> 01:19:38,121
we need to pay attention.

1611
01:19:39,470 --> 01:19:41,559
We need to talk about AI.

1612
01:19:42,734 --> 01:19:44,388
Super-intelligence.

1613
01:19:44,431 --> 01:19:45,432
Will it be conscious?

1614
01:19:46,390 --> 01:19:47,478
The trolley problem.

1615
01:19:48,261 --> 01:19:49,306
Goal alignment.

1616
01:19:50,350 --> 01:19:51,743
The singularity.

1617
01:19:51,787 --> 01:19:53,049
First to the market.

1618
01:19:53,789 --> 01:19:54,964
AI safety.

1619
01:19:56,008 --> 01:19:57,401
Lethal autonomous weapons.

1620
01:19:58,794 --> 01:19:59,969
Robot revolution.

1621
01:20:00,708 --> 01:20:01,971
The hive mind.

1622
01:20:03,320 --> 01:20:04,800
The transhuman movement.

1623
01:20:05,888 --> 01:20:08,629
Transcend humankind.

1624
01:20:08,673 --> 01:20:10,196
We don't have a plan,
we don't realize

1625
01:20:10,240 --> 01:20:11,807
it's necessary
to have a plan.

1626
01:20:13,286 --> 01:20:15,549
What do we want
the role of humans to be?

1627
01:20:25,385 --> 01:20:27,997
[BEEPING]