1 00:00:29,677 --> 00:00:35,416 2 00:00:35,417 --> 00:00:41,116 3 00:00:41,118 --> 00:00:46,717 4 00:00:48,617 --> 00:00:52,132 I dont believe it. It makes no sense. 5 00:00:57,526 --> 00:00:59,783 "There is something so strange." 6 00:01:03,365 --> 00:01:07,071 "Perhaps you could suggest some fantastic explanation. " 7 00:01:12,841 --> 00:01:14,912 "Could'nt it be this sort of thing" 8 00:01:19,948 --> 00:01:22,445 He turned the drawing round. 9 00:01:28,190 --> 00:01:31,890 "Yes," she said, "That is what I mean." 10 00:01:34,396 --> 00:01:38,252 This was the first explanation of the splitting the atom. 11 00:01:54,683 --> 00:01:58,052 Robert Oppenheimer said: "Impossible." 12 00:01:58,053 --> 00:02:00,987 But within 15 minutes he decided it was real. 13 00:02:01,957 --> 00:02:05,660 He realised it would release some great amount of energy, 14 00:02:06,122 --> 00:02:08,157 That you could generate power 15 00:02:09,289 --> 00:02:11,039 and make bombs. 16 00:02:16,905 --> 00:02:20,448 Within one week, on Oppenheimer's black board 17 00:02:22,144 --> 00:02:24,489 There was a drawing of the bomb. 18 00:02:32,287 --> 00:02:34,734 Enrico Fermi stood in his office 19 00:02:34,735 --> 00:02:36,549 and looked out of Manhattan. 20 00:02:39,324 --> 00:02:42,818 He kept his hand to the size of a tennis balll. 21 00:02:45,367 --> 00:02:48,536 "A little bomb like that" He said 22 00:02:48,537 --> 00:02:51,248 "And it would all disappear." 23 00:03:14,119 --> 00:03:16,197 Countdown To Zero 24 00:04:12,754 --> 00:04:14,722 There is no doubt in my mind 25 00:04:14,723 --> 00:04:17,591 if the terrorists had acquired a nuclear weapon, 26 00:04:17,592 --> 00:04:20,183 They would not have hasitated to use it. 27 00:04:34,877 --> 00:04:36,719 SoI guess the question is: 28 00:04:36,720 --> 00:04:38,629 Could They Ever Get One? 29 00:05:03,606 --> 00:05:07,241 Al-Qaida is determined to acquire nuclear weapons 30 00:05:07,242 --> 00:05:09,132 and use them if they get them. 31 00:05:10,279 --> 00:05:11,828 In the early 90's 32 00:05:11,829 --> 00:05:14,889 they tried to buy highly enriched uranium in Sudan 33 00:05:14,890 --> 00:05:16,489 They got scammed 34 00:05:17,953 --> 00:05:20,555 Just prior to the 9/11 attacks 35 00:05:20,556 --> 00:05:24,348 we do know that Osama bin Laden and his lieutinent Zawahiri 36 00:05:24,349 --> 00:05:27,829 sat down with two Pakistani nuclear scientists 37 00:05:27,830 --> 00:05:30,943 and discussed nuclear weapons. 38 00:05:32,668 --> 00:05:35,736 Before releasing sarin gas in the Tokyo subway 39 00:05:35,737 --> 00:05:38,539 the Japanese cult Aum Shinrikyo 40 00:05:38,540 --> 00:05:41,109 attempted to acquire a nuclear bomb in Russia. 41 00:05:43,273 --> 00:05:45,188 They bought a sheet farm in Australia 42 00:05:45,189 --> 00:05:48,241 to mine uranium to build their own bomb. 43 00:05:50,968 --> 00:05:53,398 The objective of Al-Qaeda is: 44 00:05:53,399 --> 00:05:56,014 is to kill 4 million Americans including two million children 45 00:05:57,926 --> 00:05:59,835 This is in his calculations, 46 00:05:59,836 --> 00:06:03,321 the..which is required to balance the scales of justice. 47 00:06:05,267 --> 00:06:07,268 He takes various incidents 48 00:06:07,269 --> 00:06:10,738 from Shatila to the war in Iraq, 49 00:06:10,739 --> 00:06:12,707 and counts up the bodycount and says 50 00:06:12,708 --> 00:06:15,592 "Thats how many people we owe: 4 million. " 51 00:06:16,512 --> 00:06:19,456 You are not going to get 4 million people killed by 52 00:06:19,457 --> 00:06:23,046 hijacking airplanes and crashing them into buildings. 53 00:06:40,244 --> 00:06:43,171 Actually, I am not that worried about nuclear weapons. 54 00:06:43,172 --> 00:06:44,652 Its not one of my main worries. 55 00:06:44,653 --> 00:06:46,474 Isnt everyone worried about nuclear weapons? 56 00:06:49,478 --> 00:06:52,280 There are all concerned nuclear war? 57 00:06:52,281 --> 00:06:54,182 Thats a stupid answer, no 58 00:06:56,852 --> 00:07:00,064 I don't know. Its never been something that I actually had to think 59 00:07:00,065 --> 00:07:01,858 in my everyday life. 60 00:07:06,128 --> 00:07:09,931 It might get on your conscience and maybe then disappears 61 00:07:12,835 --> 00:07:16,904 I do not think anybody is going to use in this day and age 62 00:07:16,905 --> 00:07:19,006 it is ridiculous to even think about it. 63 00:07:19,007 --> 00:07:21,349 What can you do? Nothing. 64 00:07:23,954 --> 00:07:27,907 At the end of the day a small button and there is going to be a big mess at the end of that 65 00:07:28,139 --> 00:07:32,351 Somebody is going to make a mistake one day and we are all going to suffer for it. 66 00:07:44,133 --> 00:07:47,481 There are three ways to acquire a nuclear weapon: 67 00:07:48,412 --> 00:07:50,136 You could steal a bomb, 68 00:07:50,389 --> 00:07:52,301 You could buy a bomb 69 00:07:52,541 --> 00:07:54,235 and you could build a bomb. 70 00:07:55,913 --> 00:07:59,914 Of all the things I've learned after 9/11, about terrorism iintent 71 00:07:59,915 --> 00:08:02,929 the most startling discovery for me personally 72 00:08:02,930 --> 00:08:05,862 was realising they were trying to build a bomb. 73 00:08:09,467 --> 00:08:12,116 The hardest part of making a nuclear bomb 74 00:08:12,117 --> 00:08:13,609 is getting the material, 75 00:08:13,610 --> 00:08:16,271 highly enriched uranium or plutonium. 76 00:08:18,449 --> 00:08:20,601 Many countries have these materials, 77 00:08:20,602 --> 00:08:23,498 and often they are poorly guarded 78 00:08:26,208 --> 00:08:27,983 But if I were a terrorist 79 00:08:27,984 --> 00:08:30,211 intending to build a nuclear bomb, 80 00:08:30,212 --> 00:08:32,580 and i wanted to blow up a major city 81 00:08:32,581 --> 00:08:36,030 I would look to the countries of the former Soviet Union. 82 00:08:37,058 --> 00:08:39,220 There have been many cases involving the theft 83 00:08:39,221 --> 00:08:41,801 of highly enriched uranium or plutonium. 84 00:08:42,157 --> 00:08:45,126 And every time there has been a black market ceasure 85 00:08:45,127 --> 00:08:47,557 of stolen HEU or plutonium 86 00:08:47,896 --> 00:08:50,458 andthey were able to track to its source 87 00:08:50,666 --> 00:08:52,361 It came from Russia. 88 00:08:54,903 --> 00:08:59,423 There was a case at a Russian naval base in the early 1990s. 89 00:08:59,641 --> 00:09:06,063 One of the naval personel told a relative of his where the highly enriched uranium at this place was 90 00:09:07,664 --> 00:09:09,964 This relative walked through a gapping hole and a security fence 91 00:09:10,563 --> 00:09:14,163 walked upto what you and i would consider to be a tool shaft 92 00:09:14,179 --> 00:09:17,620 snapped the lock with an iron bar. 93 00:09:17,621 --> 00:09:21,780 He set off no alarm. It was not detected at all. 94 00:09:21,781 --> 00:09:26,562 The Russian military prosecutor in that case said, quote: 95 00:09:26,563 --> 00:09:28,972 "Potatoes were guarded better ". 96 00:09:36,445 --> 00:09:38,913 At a facility called Luch, 97 00:09:38,914 --> 00:09:43,583 where they fabricate fuel made from highly enriched uranium, 98 00:09:44,315 --> 00:09:48,246 there was a worker there who knew that as long as the output 99 00:09:48,247 --> 00:09:50,992 was within about 3 percent of the input 100 00:09:50,993 --> 00:09:54,796 they figured it was normal loses to waste and they didnt bother to investigate. 101 00:09:54,797 --> 00:09:56,807 So he kept stealing small amounts 102 00:09:56,808 --> 00:09:58,645 of highly enriched uranium 103 00:09:58,646 --> 00:10:01,428 day after day, over a long period of time. 104 00:10:17,486 --> 00:10:19,821 Eventually he stole a kilogram and a half 105 00:10:19,822 --> 00:10:22,590 of 90% of highly enriched uranium 106 00:10:22,591 --> 00:10:25,358 He set off no alarms. Noone noticed. 107 00:10:26,332 --> 00:10:28,763 He had friends who were making their living 108 00:10:28,764 --> 00:10:30,731 stealing car batteries. 109 00:10:30,732 --> 00:10:32,139 And they said: 110 00:10:32,140 --> 00:10:35,750 "Maybe the guy in Moscow who buys or is still in car batteries 111 00:10:35,751 --> 00:10:37,538 "will Buy your stolen uranium . " 112 00:10:37,739 --> 00:10:39,843 So they went down to the train station together, 113 00:10:39,844 --> 00:10:42,434 and the police came in and arrested the car battery thieves 114 00:10:42,435 --> 00:10:45,446 and he got arrested along with them Thats the only way he was ever caught . 115 00:10:46,226 --> 00:10:50,510 We have cases in which people from the Russian nuclear arsenal 116 00:10:50,511 --> 00:10:52,854 were sellling material and they were captured 117 00:10:52,855 --> 00:10:56,124 We have cases in which people from Russian nuclear labs 118 00:10:56,125 --> 00:10:58,917 were selling materials they was captured. 119 00:10:59,312 --> 00:11:02,430 Almost all of those cases 120 00:11:02,431 --> 00:11:04,664 until the material was seized 121 00:11:05,142 --> 00:11:07,222 and had never been noticed to have been missing. 122 00:11:10,360 --> 00:11:14,004 All the black market seizures that I am ware of were serendepetous 123 00:11:15,110 --> 00:11:17,677 They were caught by luck. 124 00:11:18,123 --> 00:11:22,461 So we dont know weather it is the iceberg or the tip of the iceberg. 125 00:11:28,485 --> 00:11:31,893 Once you have managed to acquire highly enriched uranium, 126 00:11:31,894 --> 00:11:34,353 you need to smuggle it out of the country 127 00:11:42,938 --> 00:11:46,707 Georgia is located along Russia's southern border 128 00:11:50,746 --> 00:11:53,031 and things like highly enriched uranium 129 00:11:53,032 --> 00:11:55,574 could be smuggled from such a place 130 00:11:56,650 --> 00:11:59,934 by Azerbaijan, Iraq, Iran, 131 00:11:59,955 --> 00:12:03,693 Turkmenistan, Afghanistan and so on so forth. 132 00:13:03,485 --> 00:13:08,882 The Georgians invented a so called man of Turkish nationality 133 00:13:08,883 --> 00:13:12,226 who said he was a Muslim and 134 00:13:12,227 --> 00:13:15,695 representing a serious organization. 135 00:13:16,033 --> 00:13:18,090 Oleg Khintsagov believed he was selling 136 00:13:18,091 --> 00:13:19,845 highly enriched uranium 137 00:13:19,846 --> 00:13:22,725 to make an atomic weapon to terrorists 138 00:14:55,297 --> 00:14:57,398 If a truck driver can get hold of it, 139 00:14:57,399 --> 00:14:59,433 a small time husler 140 00:14:59,434 --> 00:15:01,402 who just wants to become a rich guy 141 00:15:01,403 --> 00:15:03,805 imagine what professionals could have done 142 00:15:03,806 --> 00:15:06,841 Real professionals with an ideology, 143 00:15:06,842 --> 00:15:09,902 with an agenda with brains 144 00:15:37,806 --> 00:15:41,008 Once you have moved the highly enriched uranium, 145 00:15:41,009 --> 00:15:43,010 you could use any number of ports 146 00:15:43,011 --> 00:15:45,012 in the Middle East or the Mediterranean 147 00:15:45,013 --> 00:15:47,841 to ship the HEU to your destination. 148 00:15:59,795 --> 00:16:02,451 smuggling highly enriched Uranium 149 00:16:02,452 --> 00:16:05,020 into the United States, is pretty straight forward 150 00:16:10,839 --> 00:16:14,276 lead pipe will shield the HEU. 151 00:16:14,610 --> 00:16:17,084 The detector would have be within a few inches 152 00:16:17,085 --> 00:16:18,705 to pick up any radiation. 153 00:16:23,352 --> 00:16:31,066 And then hide it amongst everyday goods 154 00:16:31,567 --> 00:16:34,695 A hundred pounds of highly enriched uranium 155 00:16:34,696 --> 00:16:37,698 is smaller than a football. 156 00:16:38,600 --> 00:16:42,738 It would fit in a 6 pack beer cans 157 00:16:45,640 --> 00:16:49,490 100 000 shipping containers go to the united states everyday 158 00:16:53,148 --> 00:16:56,884 Every way the drugs come to new york city 159 00:16:56,885 --> 00:17:00,304 would be the same way you would imagine highly enriched uranium coming. 160 00:17:05,160 --> 00:17:08,429 If you have any doubt about the ability of al-Qaeda 161 00:17:08,430 --> 00:17:11,588 to bring highly enriched uranium into the U.S. 162 00:17:12,100 --> 00:17:15,149 They could always hide it a bale of marijuana. 163 00:17:37,326 --> 00:17:40,003 Terrorism is just one threat 164 00:17:40,462 --> 00:17:42,208 the deliberate threat. 165 00:17:46,101 --> 00:17:48,788 There is also the unintentional threat 166 00:17:49,638 --> 00:17:51,596 of a nuclear detonation 167 00:17:51,640 --> 00:17:55,687 by accident,by error or by misjudgment. 168 00:18:26,241 --> 00:18:29,243 We like to think that the U.S. military 169 00:18:29,244 --> 00:18:31,963 or other military who are controlling nuclear weapons 170 00:18:31,964 --> 00:18:35,095 are perfect organizations , they will never fail . 171 00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:42,306 We expect them to have 100% reliability. 172 00:18:43,165 --> 00:18:45,993 But even the well-disciplined, 173 00:18:45,994 --> 00:18:48,412 very professional U.S military 174 00:18:48,530 --> 00:18:51,912 made serious serious mistakes with nuclear weapons. 175 00:18:58,073 --> 00:19:01,004 An atomic bomb breaks loose from a mounting shakle 176 00:19:01,005 --> 00:19:03,718 in a B-47 jet over Florence, South Carolina, 177 00:19:03,719 --> 00:19:05,680 causing a sensational freak accident. 178 00:19:05,681 --> 00:19:09,501 A B-52 bomber was loaded with nuclear weapons by mistake 179 00:19:09,502 --> 00:19:13,187 An American airplane flew 1500 miles across the nation we are told, 180 00:19:13,188 --> 00:19:15,256 with six nuclear warheads on aboard. 181 00:19:15,257 --> 00:19:17,925 And nobody knew. not the aircraft crew, 182 00:19:17,926 --> 00:19:20,025 not the commanders on ground. 183 00:19:20,729 --> 00:19:24,698 we have had B-52's explode in the air 184 00:19:24,699 --> 00:19:27,101 during refueling mission 185 00:19:27,102 --> 00:19:29,770 causing 4 thermonuclear weapons 186 00:19:29,771 --> 00:19:33,690 to fall onto the Spain territory and into the Mediterranean. 187 00:19:33,942 --> 00:19:36,653 A B-52 bomber carrying nuclear weapons 188 00:19:36,654 --> 00:19:39,580 crashed near U.S Air Force space in Greenland, 189 00:19:39,581 --> 00:19:43,096 scattering deadly plutonium over the icecap. 190 00:19:44,153 --> 00:19:48,122 In 1960, a BOMARC air defence missile exploded, 191 00:19:48,123 --> 00:19:49,990 melting a nuclear warhead. 192 00:19:49,991 --> 00:19:52,627 In 1968, the USS Scorpion sank 193 00:19:52,628 --> 00:19:55,262 400 miles southwest of Azores. 194 00:19:55,263 --> 00:19:58,102 Nuclear weapons on board were never found. 195 00:19:58,767 --> 00:20:02,285 A B-47 bomber disappeared over the Mediterranean. 196 00:20:02,437 --> 00:20:05,673 Nuclear weapons on board were never located. 197 00:20:05,674 --> 00:20:09,677 In 1959, an aircraft crashed near Whidbey Island, Washington. 198 00:20:09,678 --> 00:20:11,639 The nuclear debt charges 199 00:20:11,640 --> 00:20:13,080 were not recovered. 200 00:20:13,081 --> 00:20:16,209 Skyhawk's strike aircraft carrying a nuclear weapon 201 00:20:16,210 --> 00:20:18,823 rolled off an aircraft carrier in the Sea of Japan 202 00:20:18,920 --> 00:20:21,289 The weapon was never recovered. 203 00:20:21,290 --> 00:20:23,354 There are many ways in which efforts 204 00:20:23,355 --> 00:20:25,537 to make a system more reliable 205 00:20:25,538 --> 00:20:28,496 actually backfire and make it less reliable 206 00:20:28,497 --> 00:20:31,699 Sometimes we had a redundant system. 207 00:20:31,700 --> 00:20:33,735 and backup systems 208 00:20:33,736 --> 00:20:37,628 so that if one fails, another can take its place. 209 00:20:43,111 --> 00:20:47,882 But complexity is the enemy of reliability. 210 00:20:47,883 --> 00:20:50,499 Because as you add system is making more complex 211 00:20:50,500 --> 00:20:53,316 because its harder to understand all the potential interactions. 212 00:21:07,836 --> 00:21:11,424 Its that unlikely bizzare interaction 213 00:21:11,640 --> 00:21:15,850 where one person interacts with another in a way that wasnt anticipated 214 00:21:16,078 --> 00:21:20,247 or one backup system interacts with another 215 00:21:20,248 --> 00:21:22,140 in ways that you cant figure out ahead of time 216 00:21:22,141 --> 00:21:24,033 and therefore cant plan around 217 00:21:24,034 --> 00:21:25,709 Those are what cause the problems 218 00:21:25,921 --> 00:21:29,074 In 1961, a B-52 broke apart in midair 219 00:21:29,075 --> 00:21:31,876 over Goldsboro, North Carolina 220 00:21:31,877 --> 00:21:34,616 causing two nuclear bombs to fall 221 00:21:34,697 --> 00:21:37,431 One parachute functioned properly, 222 00:21:37,432 --> 00:21:40,110 and that bomb survived with minor damage 223 00:21:42,204 --> 00:21:45,753 The other parachute failed to open When that bomb hit 224 00:21:45,754 --> 00:21:48,726 five of six safety devices malfuntioned 225 00:21:48,727 --> 00:21:51,878 A single switch prevented a nuclear explosion. 226 00:21:55,450 --> 00:21:57,833 When i worked in the Pentagon 227 00:21:57,834 --> 00:22:01,259 i believed that the likelyhood of a nuclear weapons accident 228 00:22:01,260 --> 00:22:04,610 in the United States occuring was very low 229 00:22:04,611 --> 00:22:06,374 I still believe that 230 00:22:07,409 --> 00:22:11,265 But low probablity events happen 231 00:22:11,266 --> 00:22:13,195 they happen all the time. 232 00:22:13,502 --> 00:22:16,446 There's a first time in history for every event. 233 00:22:17,971 --> 00:22:22,181 Eventually those low probablity events will occur 234 00:22:28,784 --> 00:22:31,057 No! That supposed to happen? 235 00:23:06,988 --> 00:23:10,206 Like there is probably every country in the world today 236 00:23:10,859 --> 00:23:13,260 How many countries do i think have nuclear weapons? 237 00:23:13,261 --> 00:23:15,229 - List them? - China. 238 00:23:15,230 --> 00:23:17,227 I dont think i suckup for this. 239 00:23:17,499 --> 00:23:19,231 240 00:23:21,473 --> 00:23:22,568 - UK. may be 241 00:23:22,768 --> 00:23:23,968 America i'm guessing 242 00:23:26,168 --> 00:23:27,568 Oh. Oh. Us Oh I .. that was a given 243 00:23:27,609 --> 00:23:29,544 - France. - Germany? 244 00:23:29,545 --> 00:23:31,643 - Australia? - Canada? I do not think Canada 245 00:23:31,644 --> 00:23:34,412 246 00:23:34,816 --> 00:23:37,018 247 00:23:37,019 --> 00:23:40,321 - No, not Japan. - There's more. I know there's more. 248 00:23:40,322 --> 00:23:42,924 Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia. 249 00:23:44,493 --> 00:23:47,462 All other countries. They are not telling us. They have them 250 00:23:47,463 --> 00:23:49,759 - Afghanistan? - North Korea? 251 00:23:49,760 --> 00:23:53,001 - North Korea. -Do they?Ok, North Korea. 252 00:23:54,670 --> 00:23:56,237 Who knows?Who knows exactly? 253 00:23:56,238 --> 00:23:58,173 254 00:23:58,674 --> 00:24:01,002 I think that's it.Yeah 255 00:24:05,147 --> 00:24:08,389 After the United States detonated. the first atomic bomb 256 00:24:08,390 --> 00:24:10,251 in the New Mexico desert 257 00:24:10,252 --> 00:24:12,818 nuclear technology began to spread 258 00:24:13,422 --> 00:24:15,823 and other countries began to acquire 259 00:24:15,824 --> 00:24:17,838 their own nuclear bombs. 260 00:24:32,038 --> 00:24:35,638 Great credit is due for this mighty British achievement 261 00:24:35,838 --> 00:24:41,638 for it seems that by the possession of such deadly weapons peace can be maintained 262 00:24:41,838 --> 00:24:43,038 in this troubled world 263 00:24:48,057 --> 00:24:50,367 At Reggane, deep in the Sahara 264 00:24:50,368 --> 00:24:52,339 France goes forward with the detonation 265 00:24:52,340 --> 00:24:54,128 of her first atomic bomb. 266 00:24:54,129 --> 00:24:56,831 The explosion carries France a step forward 267 00:24:56,832 --> 00:25:00,767 towards the dream of General. de Gaulle towards national glory restored . 268 00:25:06,808 --> 00:25:10,544 This is a giagantic success of Mao Tse-Tung's thought. 269 00:25:10,545 --> 00:25:13,280 Our nations first nuclear test 270 00:25:13,281 --> 00:25:16,217 surpasses the levels of the first nuclear tests 271 00:25:16,218 --> 00:25:19,019 of the United States, Britain and France. 272 00:25:19,020 --> 00:25:21,779 Their criminal intent to block and prevent our nations 273 00:25:21,780 --> 00:25:24,596 people from nuclear weapons 274 00:25:24,597 --> 00:25:26,361 have been thoroughly smashed 275 00:25:54,290 --> 00:25:57,658 Pakistan, which has often went to war with India, 276 00:25:57,659 --> 00:26:00,960 might now have to join the once select nuclear community 277 00:26:00,961 --> 00:26:02,702 in self defense and warned: 278 00:26:02,703 --> 00:26:06,411 "numbers in the nuclear club will not stop at six" 279 00:26:06,750 --> 00:26:08,522 One Prime Minister of Pakistan said 280 00:26:08,523 --> 00:26:10,920 Pakistan would build a nuclear weapon 281 00:26:10,921 --> 00:26:13,074 even if it meant that the people would have to eat grass 282 00:26:13,075 --> 00:26:17,099 "We will make the bomb even if we have to eat grass. " 283 00:26:34,563 --> 00:26:37,364 In Karachi, they poured into the streets 284 00:26:37,365 --> 00:26:40,201 pulling the symbol of the power they were celebrating. 285 00:26:40,202 --> 00:26:43,704 The bomb has become a source of national pride. 286 00:26:43,705 --> 00:26:46,674 thought there was a jubliation in the streets of Pakistan. 287 00:26:46,675 --> 00:26:48,976 The first time we achieved something 288 00:26:48,977 --> 00:26:51,378 which places us in the ranks 289 00:26:51,379 --> 00:26:53,573 of very very few countries of the world. 290 00:26:53,582 --> 00:26:55,786 We were proud of our scientists, 291 00:26:55,787 --> 00:26:57,461 we were proud of our capabilities, 292 00:26:57,462 --> 00:26:59,131 we were proud of our strength. 293 00:26:59,321 --> 00:27:00,855 The people thought that : 294 00:27:00,856 --> 00:27:03,724 "Now let India do anything to Pakistan. 295 00:27:03,725 --> 00:27:05,324 "Let's see what they do." 296 00:27:13,335 --> 00:27:16,737 I had North Korean officials say to me 297 00:27:16,738 --> 00:27:21,075 a lesson they took away from the toppling of Saddam Hussein was that 298 00:27:21,076 --> 00:27:24,478 Saddam was ousted because he didnt have a bomb 299 00:27:24,479 --> 00:27:27,693 They were not going to let the same thing happen to Kim Jong-Il. 300 00:27:27,694 --> 00:27:29,935 Therefore,they needed to have a bomb. 301 00:27:33,855 --> 00:27:37,858 North Korea has feared of disappearing 302 00:27:37,859 --> 00:27:40,928 into what the communists used to call the "dustbin of history," 303 00:27:40,929 --> 00:27:44,198 like all their other communist friends and they see the nukes 304 00:27:44,199 --> 00:27:47,763 as the one thing that makes them the country 305 00:27:47,764 --> 00:27:51,138 that is taken seriously by the U.S and the other big players in the neighbourhood 306 00:28:01,116 --> 00:28:03,508 Every country has enemies. 307 00:28:07,589 --> 00:28:10,357 Every country can use self defense 308 00:28:10,358 --> 00:28:13,127 as a rationale for acquiring nuclear weapons. 309 00:28:13,128 --> 00:28:15,296 But if every country does so 310 00:28:15,297 --> 00:28:17,118 it is a much more dangerous world. 311 00:28:27,676 --> 00:28:30,399 When we see something that is technically sweet, 312 00:28:30,499 --> 00:28:32,098 you do it . 313 00:28:34,015 --> 00:28:37,234 That is the way it was the atomic bomb. 314 00:28:39,621 --> 00:28:42,523 The father of the atomic bomb, Robert Oppenheimer 315 00:28:42,524 --> 00:28:46,401 gave some frank answers to some important questions in 1947. 316 00:28:47,140 --> 00:28:50,570 I have been asked whether in the years to come will it be 317 00:28:50,571 --> 00:28:54,529 pssible to kill 40 million American people 318 00:28:54,530 --> 00:28:57,256 in the 20 largest American towns 319 00:28:57,257 --> 00:28:59,988 by the use of atomic bombs 320 00:28:59,989 --> 00:29:01,588 in a single night. 321 00:29:03,112 --> 00:29:06,560 I am afraid that the answer to that question is yes. 322 00:29:09,118 --> 00:29:12,984 I have been asked whether there is hope for the naions security 323 00:29:14,589 --> 00:29:17,258 In keeping secrets some of the knowledge 324 00:29:17,259 --> 00:29:19,997 which has gone into the making of the bombs. 325 00:29:20,362 --> 00:29:22,847 I am afraid there is no such hope 326 00:29:34,009 --> 00:29:36,147 A nuclear weapon in a sense is the most 327 00:29:36,148 --> 00:29:39,816 simple configuration of nuclear material 328 00:29:39,817 --> 00:29:42,254 that you can imagine You just bring together 329 00:29:42,352 --> 00:29:45,787 certain quantity of fissile material 330 00:29:45,788 --> 00:29:48,756 highly enriched uranium or plutonium 331 00:29:48,757 --> 00:29:51,606 and if you do it right it will explode. 332 00:29:55,397 --> 00:29:57,898 The design of the first atomic bomb 333 00:29:57,899 --> 00:30:00,723 was a very deep secret 334 00:30:03,472 --> 00:30:06,874 In fact that was a time when people didnt even know 335 00:30:06,875 --> 00:30:08,795 whether a bomb was possible. 336 00:30:09,544 --> 00:30:12,907 Now the making of the atom bomb has become much easier. 337 00:30:17,886 --> 00:30:20,616 Those who say that building a nuclear weapon is easy 338 00:30:20,617 --> 00:30:22,202 They are very wrong 339 00:30:22,203 --> 00:30:25,472 Those who say building a crude device is very difficult 340 00:30:25,473 --> 00:30:27,072 They are more wrong 341 00:30:27,562 --> 00:30:29,276 Do you agree with that statement? 342 00:30:29,532 --> 00:30:32,277 I wont comment on that statement - Okay, Alright 343 00:30:32,368 --> 00:30:35,267 People from the U.S Nuclear laboratory were 344 00:30:35,268 --> 00:30:38,098 testified to a classified section to the Congress 345 00:30:38,540 --> 00:30:42,210 and they said it would be possible make a nuclear bomb 346 00:30:42,211 --> 00:30:45,846 with all parts being Commercially available 347 00:30:45,847 --> 00:30:47,799 except from the actual nuclear material 348 00:30:48,283 --> 00:30:50,420 Senator Biden asked 349 00:30:50,421 --> 00:30:53,021 the heads of the three weapons labs: 350 00:30:53,022 --> 00:30:56,124 Is it possible?"Is it really possible that the terrorists could do this? " 351 00:30:56,125 --> 00:30:57,701 They said "yes." 352 00:30:57,702 --> 00:31:01,016 They said:"This is something that we test our graduate students from time to time. 353 00:31:01,017 --> 00:31:04,562 "We take two students who havnt been prepared for doing this" 354 00:31:05,401 --> 00:31:08,781 We tell them: "See if you can make a bomb that would work. " 355 00:31:09,471 --> 00:31:12,339 "And on the whole most of them passed this test" 356 00:31:16,211 --> 00:31:18,679 Biden said: "Prove it" 357 00:31:18,680 --> 00:31:21,783 And so they went and made a nuclear bomb, 358 00:31:21,784 --> 00:31:24,241 with everything other than the nuclear material, 359 00:31:24,242 --> 00:31:26,120 from commercial parts. 360 00:31:26,121 --> 00:31:29,896 They actually brought it in to the classified hearing room in the Senate. 361 00:31:30,859 --> 00:31:35,243 Typically, an implosion bomb would have something like a 362 00:31:35,244 --> 00:31:39,537 25 kg of uranium,which is about the size of a grapefruit. 363 00:31:42,442 --> 00:31:48,354 If, lets say, between 70 and a 100 kg of HEU 364 00:31:48,455 --> 00:31:50,191 is available, 365 00:31:50,312 --> 00:31:53,432 then the design is not a major factor. 366 00:31:54,950 --> 00:31:56,981 It would not be very efficient. 367 00:31:57,319 --> 00:32:01,410 it would not use all the uranium that was used in it. 368 00:32:01,423 --> 00:32:04,340 and yet it would be enough to level a city 369 00:32:42,965 --> 00:32:45,499 During my 10 years as prime minister, 370 00:32:45,500 --> 00:32:48,502 what i really noticed was that 371 00:32:48,503 --> 00:32:50,738 it was actually the threat of the proliferation, 372 00:32:50,739 --> 00:32:53,121 the fact that these weapons could fall 373 00:32:53,122 --> 00:32:54,854 into other peoples hands 374 00:32:54,855 --> 00:32:56,726 That was the thing that troubled me, 375 00:32:56,727 --> 00:32:59,007 that kept me awake at night. 376 00:33:00,184 --> 00:33:01,780 In the capital, Islamabad, 377 00:33:01,781 --> 00:33:04,518 word hit the streets in early afternoon: 378 00:33:04,519 --> 00:33:07,713 Another nuclear device tested successfully. 379 00:33:08,324 --> 00:33:10,524 As Pakistan celebrated, 380 00:33:10,525 --> 00:33:14,870 the public hailed AQ Khan as the father of the Islamic bomb. 381 00:33:15,097 --> 00:33:17,841 In 1974, AQ Khan was working at a company 382 00:33:17,842 --> 00:33:21,578 that was developing a brand new process of enriching uranium 383 00:33:22,064 --> 00:33:25,545 He stole their designs and took the list of all the suppliers. 384 00:33:25,607 --> 00:33:28,442 At the end of the day he is not really a master scientist 385 00:33:28,443 --> 00:33:31,285 but he is a master smuggler and a master organizer. 386 00:33:31,513 --> 00:33:34,448 He knows how to get the pieces out of the countries 387 00:33:34,449 --> 00:33:37,006 and how to find stuff and buy stuff 388 00:33:37,253 --> 00:33:40,506 There was this whole plan to start an operation setup 389 00:33:40,507 --> 00:33:44,758 by the intelligence services, by the army and by Dr. Khan 390 00:33:44,860 --> 00:33:47,561 Restrictions were placed Sanctions were placed. 391 00:33:47,562 --> 00:33:50,398 But somehow the pakistanis got around that 392 00:33:50,399 --> 00:33:54,416 and the formal help actually came from India's enemy- China 393 00:33:54,417 --> 00:33:58,680 China gave a blueprint of a nuclear bomb to Pakistan. 394 00:34:00,062 --> 00:34:02,443 Around early 1980s, 395 00:34:02,444 --> 00:34:05,012 Khan makes contact with the Iranians, 396 00:34:05,013 --> 00:34:07,154 who were very interested in getting a bomb 397 00:34:07,155 --> 00:34:09,875 but clearly dont have the scientific or industrial capacity 398 00:34:09,876 --> 00:34:11,385 to do it themselves 399 00:34:11,386 --> 00:34:13,920 And thus he starts on a a commercial enterprise. 400 00:34:14,532 --> 00:34:18,025 Khan has got a full marketing regime laid out 401 00:34:18,026 --> 00:34:21,257 brochures and videos tapes that offers nuclear wares 402 00:34:21,334 --> 00:34:24,624 It extremely lucrative business 403 00:34:24,766 --> 00:34:28,569 He had extensive contacts, networks, 404 00:34:28,570 --> 00:34:33,678 and he didnt much care about who the ultimate client was going to be 405 00:34:34,733 --> 00:34:39,013 He contacted Iran North Korea, Libya, 406 00:34:39,014 --> 00:34:41,248 but he didnt just give them the technologies 407 00:34:41,249 --> 00:34:44,359 He also took the bomb designs that the Pakistanis had 408 00:34:44,360 --> 00:34:46,587 and threw those in as a sweetner 409 00:34:46,588 --> 00:34:50,157 He gave them 24/7 technology support . 410 00:34:50,158 --> 00:34:52,827 Got a problem? Call 1-800-AQKHAN. 411 00:34:52,828 --> 00:34:55,725 It was a full service operation 412 00:34:57,195 --> 00:35:00,622 The U.S. intelligence began to focus on AQ Khan 413 00:35:00,623 --> 00:35:02,103 in the late 1990s. 414 00:35:02,104 --> 00:35:05,639 The homerun was in December 2003 with Libya. 415 00:35:10,403 --> 00:35:12,850 The CIA and British Intelligence 416 00:35:12,851 --> 00:35:16,244 essentially caught the Khan network red handed 417 00:35:16,245 --> 00:35:19,815 Selling a full scale nuclear weapon to Libya. 418 00:35:21,979 --> 00:35:23,624 If it wasnt for AQ Khan, 419 00:35:23,625 --> 00:35:26,017 Libya never would have got the centrifuges 420 00:35:26,018 --> 00:35:28,129 but that they have thankfully today given up 421 00:35:28,163 --> 00:35:29,767 If it wasnt for AQ Khan, 422 00:35:29,768 --> 00:35:32,865 there wouldnt be an Iranian nuclear program 423 00:35:37,406 --> 00:35:39,874 Iran is the tip of the spear 424 00:35:39,875 --> 00:35:42,653 It's the big problem that we have to solve. 425 00:35:44,813 --> 00:35:48,649 They promised not to build nuclear weapons, 426 00:35:48,650 --> 00:35:52,453 but the problem is that the very same centrifugals 427 00:35:52,454 --> 00:35:55,189 very same factory that can enrich uranium 428 00:35:55,190 --> 00:35:57,706 to low quantities for nuclear fuel 429 00:35:57,707 --> 00:35:59,946 can enrich it to high quantities 430 00:35:59,951 --> 00:36:01,471 for nuclear weapons. 431 00:36:01,472 --> 00:36:04,255 So the question is: Do you trust Iran? 432 00:36:07,332 --> 00:36:10,371 By their own admission they have deceived inspectors 433 00:36:10,372 --> 00:36:13,574 about their nuclear activities for 17 years. 434 00:36:35,564 --> 00:36:38,199 Without question Iran is trying to get a nuclear bomb. 435 00:36:38,200 --> 00:36:40,201 They have made that very clear, 436 00:36:40,202 --> 00:36:42,903 despite their promises that they are only pursuing 437 00:36:42,904 --> 00:36:46,171 civil and peaceful objectives for their nuclear program. 438 00:36:47,375 --> 00:36:49,530 They are really good They are trying to bring things in 439 00:36:49,531 --> 00:36:52,313 that can be used for their nuclear program 440 00:36:52,314 --> 00:36:54,932 The Iranians have worked very hard 441 00:36:54,933 --> 00:36:58,619 to hiding and disguising their facilities 442 00:36:58,620 --> 00:37:01,981 Many of their facilities are in crowded urban areas 443 00:37:01,982 --> 00:37:04,434 underground, extremely well protected 444 00:37:04,435 --> 00:37:06,460 from any sort of aerial bombing 445 00:37:06,461 --> 00:37:09,463 If Iran were to acquire nuclear weapons capability 446 00:37:09,464 --> 00:37:11,899 the impact is across the whole of the the region 447 00:37:11,900 --> 00:37:14,499 We will get a whole set of other countries 448 00:37:14,500 --> 00:37:17,630 deciding they have got to acquire nuclear weapons capability 449 00:37:18,240 --> 00:37:22,376 Syria, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt ... 450 00:37:22,377 --> 00:37:25,479 the rivals of the Iranian Shite state 451 00:37:25,480 --> 00:37:28,687 would match their capabilities and would go from the Middle East 452 00:37:28,784 --> 00:37:31,385 with one nuclear armed nation Israel 453 00:37:31,386 --> 00:37:34,322 to one with three, four or five nuclear armed nations 454 00:37:34,323 --> 00:37:40,190 They are surrounded by very unstable regimes and countries . 455 00:37:40,395 --> 00:37:42,797 If Iran acquires everything it needs, 456 00:37:42,798 --> 00:37:46,701 without doubt pieces of that become more readily available 457 00:37:46,702 --> 00:37:50,371 to terrorist organizations like Hamas. 458 00:37:54,331 --> 00:37:56,177 The risk that you have today 459 00:37:56,178 --> 00:38:00,347 with regimes like Iran or North Korea 460 00:38:00,348 --> 00:38:03,918 is they are prepared to start trading 461 00:38:03,919 --> 00:38:07,060 that nuclear weapons capability and technology. 462 00:38:07,567 --> 00:38:10,324 The Pakistanis had the nuclear know how. 463 00:38:10,325 --> 00:38:12,326 they didnt have a delivery system. 464 00:38:12,327 --> 00:38:14,295 The North Koreans had the missile, 465 00:38:14,296 --> 00:38:15,996 and didnt have the nuclear know how 466 00:38:15,997 --> 00:38:20,334 So there was a natural convergence of interests here 467 00:38:21,403 --> 00:38:24,038 The North Koreans have a long track record of 468 00:38:24,039 --> 00:38:26,340 selling military technology and missiles to 469 00:38:26,341 --> 00:38:30,745 the Syrians,to the Iranians, to the Iraqis, Pakistanis. 470 00:38:30,746 --> 00:38:33,274 They dont really have any other exports. 471 00:38:37,577 --> 00:38:39,987 Daily life is very real 472 00:38:39,988 --> 00:38:41,956 Food is in short supply 473 00:38:41,957 --> 00:38:44,959 you drive around the capital,Pyongyang, at night 474 00:38:44,960 --> 00:38:46,727 and its basically dark. 475 00:38:46,728 --> 00:38:48,729 There is a famous satellite photo 476 00:38:48,730 --> 00:38:51,232 that shows the Korean peninsula. 477 00:38:51,233 --> 00:38:53,601 and in the south, we see all these lights, 478 00:38:53,602 --> 00:38:55,266 and then its just black 479 00:38:58,940 --> 00:39:02,193 we are still dealing with his years 480 00:39:02,194 --> 00:39:05,390 of unchecked activities and contacts 481 00:39:05,447 --> 00:39:09,083 and its really a genie out of the bottle 482 00:39:09,084 --> 00:39:12,395 that cannot be easily put back 483 00:39:26,001 --> 00:39:28,335 We spend billions of dollars 484 00:39:28,336 --> 00:39:31,272 putting in radiation detectors 485 00:39:31,273 --> 00:39:33,464 but highly enriched uranium 486 00:39:33,465 --> 00:39:35,065 is easily shielded 487 00:39:37,813 --> 00:39:41,148 If you are depending on portal monitors 488 00:39:41,149 --> 00:39:44,919 to defend a city against a nuclear detonation, 489 00:39:44,920 --> 00:39:48,261 You have done far too much too late 490 00:39:48,657 --> 00:39:51,602 Nuclear weapons 491 00:39:51,660 --> 00:39:54,495 dont have to be exactly on target. 492 00:39:54,496 --> 00:39:56,130 Close is good enough. 493 00:39:56,131 --> 00:39:58,503 If a terrorist thinks that the portal monitor 494 00:39:58,504 --> 00:40:01,803 might detect weapon, they set it off in the port. 495 00:40:03,939 --> 00:40:06,899 highly enriched uranium is easy to smuggle 496 00:40:06,900 --> 00:40:09,457 the radiation is very weak. 497 00:40:17,719 --> 00:40:20,688 The detectors that we are putting in place now 498 00:40:20,689 --> 00:40:22,857 would have no chance of detecting 499 00:40:22,858 --> 00:40:26,057 HEU in a cargo container. 500 00:40:33,101 --> 00:40:36,471 The signature of highly enriched uranium is so slight 501 00:40:36,472 --> 00:40:38,941 that they would have to set the monitors very high 502 00:40:38,942 --> 00:40:41,167 to detect it,and so they are getting 503 00:40:41,168 --> 00:40:44,015 thousands of false alarms every day. 504 00:40:44,413 --> 00:40:48,249 Toilets, will set it off china 505 00:40:48,250 --> 00:40:50,851 Ceramics, stones like granites, 506 00:40:50,852 --> 00:40:55,495 lot of biological materials like tobacco, some algae, 507 00:40:55,657 --> 00:40:58,759 televisions ,the old style televisions, 508 00:40:58,760 --> 00:41:01,695 kitty litter,lot of chemical products, 509 00:41:01,696 --> 00:41:03,335 and well other stuff also 510 00:41:09,237 --> 00:41:12,306 You wants to smuggle a bomb into the United States? 511 00:41:12,307 --> 00:41:14,398 Ship it in a truck with a kitty litter 512 00:41:15,243 --> 00:41:17,148 No one would ever find it 513 00:41:18,947 --> 00:41:22,116 They are great for really radioactive stuff, 514 00:41:22,117 --> 00:41:23,639 like cesium or something 515 00:41:23,640 --> 00:41:26,087 that might be used in a "dirty bomb." 516 00:41:26,088 --> 00:41:29,145 But for the stuff that you would use to make a nuclear bomb 517 00:41:29,146 --> 00:41:32,022 that would incenerate the heart of a major city 518 00:41:32,023 --> 00:41:33,690 they are not gonna detect that. 519 00:41:40,135 --> 00:41:42,412 Robert Oppenheimer in 1946, he appeared in a 520 00:41:42,413 --> 00:41:44,805 closed door session of the Senate, 521 00:41:44,806 --> 00:41:46,807 and one of the senators asked him 522 00:41:46,808 --> 00:41:49,912 if nuclear terrorism was a potential threat. 523 00:41:50,412 --> 00:41:52,061 He said "Of course" 524 00:41:52,481 --> 00:41:55,932 "Terrorists could bring a bomb into New York City 525 00:41:55,933 --> 00:41:57,639 "And destroy the city." 526 00:41:57,919 --> 00:42:00,544 Somebody asked him : "How would you stop it?" 527 00:42:02,057 --> 00:42:04,024 He said: "With a screwdriver, 528 00:42:04,025 --> 00:42:06,861 "To open up every container that comes into this city. " 529 00:42:19,541 --> 00:42:21,971 Once you have smuggled the highly enriched uranium 530 00:42:21,972 --> 00:42:24,982 into the U.S.you would need a place to build the bomb. 531 00:42:26,181 --> 00:42:28,990 The bomb could be built right in the target city. 532 00:42:30,152 --> 00:42:33,654 The hard part was what we did in 1945. 533 00:42:33,655 --> 00:42:35,921 The hard part is doing it the first time. 534 00:42:36,826 --> 00:42:40,205 This is no longer a conceptual challenge There is no trick. 535 00:42:40,206 --> 00:42:42,797 There is no magic that needs to be figured out 536 00:42:42,798 --> 00:42:45,171 It's really just an engineering challenge 537 00:42:45,667 --> 00:42:47,250 It's definitely not rocket science. 538 00:42:47,251 --> 00:42:49,573 The rocket science is more difficult. 539 00:42:50,372 --> 00:42:52,339 you can make a very simple weapon, 540 00:42:52,340 --> 00:42:54,542 a so called gun type weapon 541 00:42:54,543 --> 00:42:56,844 which was the one used in Hiroshima 542 00:42:56,845 --> 00:43:01,042 It was so simple we didnt even test it before we dropped it 543 00:43:02,184 --> 00:43:04,819 It is essentially just a gun barrel. 544 00:43:04,820 --> 00:43:09,911 with a target and you can projectile, and you propel the projectile into the target. 545 00:43:12,894 --> 00:43:14,995 you will need an artillary gun 546 00:43:14,996 --> 00:43:17,197 to fire a one piece of HEU in the other, 547 00:43:18,066 --> 00:43:21,116 which would be bolted onto the muscle of the gun 548 00:43:21,503 --> 00:43:24,438 The military sells these things as surplus, 549 00:43:24,439 --> 00:43:26,140 but they sell them to save it 550 00:43:26,141 --> 00:43:29,010 You would have to make the gun capable of shooting again 551 00:43:29,011 --> 00:43:31,268 and you would want to test fire the gun to make sure that 552 00:43:31,269 --> 00:43:33,924 that it fired the projectile at the right speed. 553 00:43:34,850 --> 00:43:37,923 This is the only thing that you would need to do off-site. 554 00:43:38,854 --> 00:43:40,955 you would need a group of people ... 555 00:43:40,956 --> 00:43:44,158 lets say,between 15 to 20 to 25, 556 00:43:44,159 --> 00:43:47,228 who would be knowledgable in particular aspects 557 00:43:47,229 --> 00:43:49,997 of weapons designs of explosives. 558 00:43:49,998 --> 00:43:52,377 Two or three people to do the machining, 559 00:43:52,378 --> 00:43:54,002 two or three people to work on the gun 560 00:43:54,003 --> 00:43:56,772 two or three people to work on electronics, 561 00:43:56,807 --> 00:44:00,241 People who are experts in ballistics 562 00:44:00,342 --> 00:44:02,543 People who know something about nuclear physics. 563 00:44:02,544 --> 00:44:05,412 you just need the machinist and metallar 564 00:44:05,413 --> 00:44:08,045 just to make the pieces into the right shapes and make sure they fit together 565 00:44:08,116 --> 00:44:10,751 Ordinary explosives and detonators 566 00:44:10,752 --> 00:44:13,421 maybe some electronic equipment. 567 00:44:13,422 --> 00:44:14,822 You can go online 568 00:44:14,823 --> 00:44:17,657 and easily find the blade for $ 10,000. 569 00:44:17,658 --> 00:44:20,694 you could find the furnace for about $ 50,000. 570 00:44:20,695 --> 00:44:23,564 And you can even find the surplus recoilless rifle 571 00:44:23,565 --> 00:44:26,801 probably also for $ 10,000. 572 00:44:26,802 --> 00:44:30,538 More than 90% of the effort in the Manhattan Project 573 00:44:30,539 --> 00:44:32,762 was making the nuclear material 574 00:44:32,763 --> 00:44:35,015 to make the nuclear bomb. 575 00:44:35,377 --> 00:44:37,712 If you can get hold of that nuclear material, 576 00:44:37,713 --> 00:44:41,182 then it doesnt take a Manhattan Project to make a bomb. 577 00:44:55,059 --> 00:44:57,131 If the circumstances are right, 578 00:44:57,132 --> 00:44:58,832 acquiring a complete bomb 579 00:44:58,833 --> 00:45:00,967 may be easier than building one 580 00:45:01,036 --> 00:45:03,537 In Algeria, in 1961, 581 00:45:03,538 --> 00:45:06,507 officers within the French millitary rebelled 582 00:45:06,508 --> 00:45:08,728 and tried to seize a nuclear weapon. 583 00:45:08,729 --> 00:45:10,478 As the rebels closed in 584 00:45:10,479 --> 00:45:13,681 the weapon was detonated in a degraded explosion 585 00:45:13,682 --> 00:45:17,813 to prevent it from falling into the hands of the rebelling officers. 586 00:45:26,661 --> 00:45:30,030 The Japanese death terror cult, Aum Shinrikyo, 587 00:45:30,031 --> 00:45:33,243 attemted to buy a nuclear bomb from the Soviet Union. 588 00:45:34,288 --> 00:45:36,304 They had a lot of resources, 589 00:45:36,305 --> 00:45:39,373 We are talking well over billion dollars of assets. 590 00:45:39,374 --> 00:45:42,724 and secondly they had tremendous access. At one point, 591 00:45:42,725 --> 00:45:46,725 the group had more members in Russia in the former Soviet Union than they had in Japan 592 00:45:49,918 --> 00:45:54,485 In 1994, a senior leader made eight trips to Russia 593 00:45:54,990 --> 00:45:58,012 His personal notebook included a shopping list 594 00:45:58,013 --> 00:46:01,257 for buying a nuclear warhead for $ 15 million. 595 00:46:02,665 --> 00:46:05,031 A perfectly secure nuclear weapon 596 00:46:05,032 --> 00:46:07,434 is also a perfectly unusable one 597 00:46:07,654 --> 00:46:13,565 So here one has this paradox between security and usability 598 00:46:16,244 --> 00:46:19,061 Where is the worlds most dangerous place right now? 599 00:46:20,082 --> 00:46:22,349 mu money it is Pakistan. 600 00:46:22,350 --> 00:46:24,685 you have got an unstable government, 601 00:46:24,686 --> 00:46:27,421 plus enough material for up to a 100 nuclear weapons, 602 00:46:27,422 --> 00:46:30,730 plus Osama bin Laden in the country. 603 00:46:39,668 --> 00:46:43,938 What we have seen over the last two or three years 604 00:46:43,939 --> 00:46:46,941 has been a spiral that has been going downwards 605 00:46:46,942 --> 00:46:50,177 Destabilization,the spread of the Taliban, 606 00:46:50,178 --> 00:46:53,531 the spread of radicalism, the collapse of the economy. 607 00:46:54,450 --> 00:46:57,418 So could there be a cornals coup in Pakistan 608 00:46:57,419 --> 00:47:00,254 by Islamic radicals within the military 609 00:47:00,255 --> 00:47:03,120 and then could nuclear weapons be at risk? 610 00:47:04,360 --> 00:47:08,262 What happens if that country destablises? 611 00:47:08,263 --> 00:47:11,307 What happens if the army splits? 612 00:47:11,800 --> 00:47:13,230 Who gets the weapons? 613 00:47:13,231 --> 00:47:15,742 Who gets the material for the weapons? 614 00:47:15,743 --> 00:47:19,482 Who gets the scientists who know how to build the weapons? 615 00:47:26,048 --> 00:47:31,251 There is no such thing as perfect command and control over the nuclear weapons, 616 00:47:31,893 --> 00:47:35,210 even in the sophasticated of the arsenals. 617 00:47:40,228 --> 00:47:43,164 from the levels of the presidents gone down 618 00:47:43,165 --> 00:47:46,411 there are human weaknesses, technical problems 619 00:47:46,702 --> 00:47:49,074 deficiencies and vulnerabilities. 620 00:47:54,376 --> 00:47:58,087 I was the launch officer for Minuteman missiles. 621 00:47:59,981 --> 00:48:02,384 and I spent three years in Montana in a hole 622 00:48:02,385 --> 00:48:05,897 in an undergorund launch control centre 623 00:48:11,626 --> 00:48:14,261 I was one of the guys responsible for 624 00:48:14,262 --> 00:48:17,265 for getting these missiles off ground 625 00:48:17,365 --> 00:48:20,829 in one minute. we didnt call them "Minuteman missiles" for nothing. 626 00:48:30,045 --> 00:48:34,282 When I was serving in the Air Force as the launch officer, 627 00:48:34,283 --> 00:48:38,018 there was a device in the launch control centre 628 00:48:38,019 --> 00:48:40,584 into which 12 digits had to be dialed in 629 00:48:40,585 --> 00:48:43,308 in order to unlock the missiles for firing 630 00:48:44,078 --> 00:48:47,027 This had been installed under Robert McNamara 631 00:48:47,028 --> 00:48:50,064 over the objections of the Strategic Air Command 632 00:48:50,065 --> 00:48:54,572 Since they couldnt prevent the panel from being installed 633 00:48:54,803 --> 00:48:57,238 the StrategicAir Command in Omaha 634 00:48:57,239 --> 00:48:59,685 had set these codes to zero 635 00:48:59,686 --> 00:49:01,282 and we all knew it. 636 00:49:01,283 --> 00:49:03,711 That was the secret unlock code 637 00:49:03,712 --> 00:49:05,913 for firing our missiles: 638 00:49:05,914 --> 00:49:07,739 12 zeros. 639 00:49:08,217 --> 00:49:11,237 In fact, in our launch check list 640 00:49:11,238 --> 00:49:14,405 we had to ensure that the unlock code 641 00:49:14,406 --> 00:49:16,841 was set to al zeros before we completed 642 00:49:16,842 --> 00:49:18,768 the launch sequence. 643 00:49:24,032 --> 00:49:26,767 This changed in 1977 644 00:49:26,768 --> 00:49:29,236 when they started using actual codes. 645 00:49:29,237 --> 00:49:32,373 But until then, I and one other crew member 646 00:49:32,374 --> 00:49:35,375 could have actually formatted a launch order 647 00:49:36,029 --> 00:49:38,651 a completely valid launch order 648 00:49:38,652 --> 00:49:43,142 and transmitted it to the entire American stratergic arsenal. 649 00:49:43,318 --> 00:49:46,019 Looks like we are in a shooting war 650 00:49:46,706 --> 00:49:50,324 Oh hell.Oh the russians have got it? 651 00:49:50,325 --> 00:49:51,859 i think: Thats what i have been told 652 00:49:51,860 --> 00:49:53,774 just came in on the red phone. 653 00:49:53,775 --> 00:49:56,527 My orders are toseal this base tight and thats what i mean to do, seal it tight 654 00:49:57,173 --> 00:50:00,868 Now I want you to transmit Plan R 655 00:50:00,869 --> 00:50:03,292 "R" for "Robert" to the wing. 656 00:50:03,293 --> 00:50:06,341 - Plan "R",for "Robert". - Is it that bad, sir? 657 00:50:06,342 --> 00:50:08,821 looks like its pretty hairy - Yes, sir. 658 00:50:09,111 --> 00:50:11,412 I remember watching "Dr. Strangelove" 659 00:50:11,413 --> 00:50:14,063 and thinking they had it all wrong. 660 00:50:14,249 --> 00:50:16,203 You dont need to be a general. 661 00:50:16,485 --> 00:50:19,328 We were only lieutenants, but we could have started 662 00:50:19,329 --> 00:50:23,122 World War III just as easily as Gal. Jack Ripper. 663 00:50:23,158 --> 00:50:25,187 We could have triggered implementation 664 00:50:25,188 --> 00:50:27,161 of the U.S. nuclear war plan 665 00:50:27,162 --> 00:50:30,464 involving thousands and thousands of nuclear weapons 666 00:50:30,465 --> 00:50:33,274 fired at the Soviet Union and China. 667 00:50:33,636 --> 00:50:37,104 Standby Message followed 668 00:50:37,105 --> 00:50:40,308 Alpha, Tango, Golf, Reamer. 669 00:50:40,309 --> 00:50:42,805 The life of a watch officer 670 00:50:42,806 --> 00:50:44,445 is really Pavlovian. 671 00:50:44,446 --> 00:50:47,982 You have been trained and conditioned so thoroughly 672 00:50:47,983 --> 00:50:53,421 you kind of march up a long step into a very well rehearsed script 673 00:50:53,422 --> 00:50:55,663 thats written by check lists. 674 00:50:55,824 --> 00:50:57,968 Step 1: All keys inserted. 675 00:50:57,969 --> 00:50:59,497 Roger 676 00:50:59,498 --> 00:51:02,263 We would jump up unlock our safe 677 00:51:02,264 --> 00:51:03,864 take out codes 678 00:51:08,170 --> 00:51:10,505 Check the codes against the mesage 679 00:51:10,506 --> 00:51:13,524 and then proceed through a launch check list that 680 00:51:13,525 --> 00:51:15,754 takes about one minute to carry an armour 681 00:51:18,246 --> 00:51:21,094 Lets enable the missiles. Key program activated. 682 00:51:21,095 --> 00:51:24,051 All in flight. BF all. Unlock code inserted. 683 00:51:24,052 --> 00:51:25,651 Standby... 684 00:51:25,915 --> 00:51:27,822 Unlock code inserted. 685 00:51:27,823 --> 00:51:30,320 enable Its enabled. 686 00:51:30,559 --> 00:51:34,304 At the end of that process to turn the keys 687 00:51:34,496 --> 00:51:38,486 and launch upto 50 missiles at Soviet Union and / or China. 688 00:51:54,883 --> 00:51:58,652 Today, the position of United States and Russia 689 00:51:58,653 --> 00:52:01,575 is exactly the same as it was during the Cold War. 690 00:52:02,591 --> 00:52:05,025 So if the orders came down,during now 691 00:52:05,026 --> 00:52:08,429 20 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, 692 00:52:08,430 --> 00:52:10,965 It would take about two minutes 693 00:52:10,966 --> 00:52:15,269 to launch all of the US nuclear ballistic missiles 694 00:52:15,270 --> 00:52:17,205 their tunnels in central U.S. 695 00:52:17,206 --> 00:52:18,959 out of their tubes in the midwest 696 00:52:18,960 --> 00:52:21,042 It would time for the Russians to do the same thing 697 00:52:21,043 --> 00:52:24,245 and then it would take another 10 to 12 minutes 698 00:52:24,246 --> 00:52:26,924 for everything else thats on 699 00:52:26,925 --> 00:52:29,765 launch ready alert to be fired 700 00:52:39,528 --> 00:52:42,763 So that within 15 minutes 701 00:52:42,998 --> 00:52:46,500 all the forces on the launch ready alert 702 00:52:46,501 --> 00:52:50,311 would be in the air in their flight to the other side of the planet. 703 00:52:51,448 --> 00:52:53,374 2000 bombs 704 00:52:53,375 --> 00:52:57,143 strategic nuclear weapons, very high yield. 705 00:52:58,270 --> 00:52:59,957 And they could kill 706 00:52:59,958 --> 00:53:02,525 over a 100 million Russians and Americans 707 00:53:02,526 --> 00:53:04,293 within 30 minutes. 708 00:53:12,127 --> 00:53:15,025 When we are working on nuclear apps control 709 00:53:15,026 --> 00:53:17,749 i found myself in a briefing in the Pentagon with a colonel 710 00:53:18,000 --> 00:53:20,568 we had a short exchange about this 711 00:53:20,569 --> 00:53:23,637 and in this context of this exchange he said: 712 00:53:23,638 --> 00:53:26,396 "But I do not understand what would be such a big deal" 713 00:53:26,397 --> 00:53:28,316 "If there was a nuclear exchange" 714 00:53:28,317 --> 00:53:30,845 "Only about 500 million people would die. 715 00:53:30,846 --> 00:53:32,947 "Life would go on afterwards." 716 00:53:34,683 --> 00:53:38,784 And I can remember having a feeling like Woody Allen 717 00:53:38,785 --> 00:53:40,976 and recall 718 00:53:40,989 --> 00:53:43,820 "I'm sorry i have got an appointment back on planet earth" 719 00:54:16,692 --> 00:54:18,664 I dont think that anyone really knows 720 00:54:18,665 --> 00:54:21,482 how many nuclear weapons there are on the planet today. 721 00:54:23,499 --> 00:54:25,872 - I have a ... - Does anyone know? 722 00:54:27,536 --> 00:54:29,470 723 00:54:29,471 --> 00:54:32,507 May be thousands,i dont know Far more than I know. 724 00:54:35,012 --> 00:54:36,577 6000. 725 00:54:39,615 --> 00:54:41,416 I do not know. 15 000. 726 00:54:41,417 --> 00:54:43,618 - 20 000. - 50 000? 727 00:54:43,619 --> 00:54:46,020 - 100 000. - 500 000. 728 00:54:46,021 --> 00:54:47,661 There is enough firepower 729 00:54:47,662 --> 00:54:49,354 on a US nuclear sub 730 00:54:49,355 --> 00:54:51,194 to annihilate probably half the planet. 731 00:54:53,295 --> 00:54:55,312 I have heard people say that we have enough 732 00:54:55,313 --> 00:54:57,331 nuclear weapons to create a new sun. 733 00:54:57,332 --> 00:55:00,302 I think couple to eliminate this city. 734 00:55:00,502 --> 00:55:02,101 Do you know how many are there? 735 00:55:08,343 --> 00:55:13,855 We estimate that there are about 23 000 nuclear weapons in the world still. 736 00:55:16,054 --> 00:55:19,268 The good news is there used to be 60 000. 737 00:55:19,388 --> 00:55:22,857 So we have cut those arsenals by more than half. 738 00:55:22,858 --> 00:55:25,459 But we, the United States, still has about 739 00:55:25,460 --> 00:55:28,329 1,500 hydrogen bombs 740 00:55:28,330 --> 00:55:31,558 on missiles poised for launch 741 00:55:31,559 --> 00:55:33,454 in 50 minutes or less. 742 00:55:34,106 --> 00:55:37,183 The really bad news is that the Russians have the same. 743 00:55:41,975 --> 00:55:45,602 If the Russians fired missiles at the United States 744 00:55:48,351 --> 00:55:52,019 the first warning would come from satellites, 745 00:55:52,020 --> 00:55:56,357 and they could detect the flame from the booster rocket 746 00:55:56,358 --> 00:55:58,001 within seconds, 747 00:55:59,542 --> 00:56:01,348 easily within a minute. 748 00:56:02,540 --> 00:56:06,634 Suddenly, this early warning hub in the United States 749 00:56:06,635 --> 00:56:10,738 would become very frenzy to try figure out 750 00:56:10,739 --> 00:56:14,142 whether this is a false alam or whether this is a real attack 751 00:56:14,143 --> 00:56:17,581 and determine this in 60 seconds. 752 00:56:22,243 --> 00:56:26,275 The President would receive a briefing 753 00:56:26,276 --> 00:56:29,317 from the duty officer 754 00:56:29,318 --> 00:56:31,534 at Strategic Command Headquaters 755 00:56:32,227 --> 00:56:34,595 That briefing of the President 756 00:56:34,596 --> 00:56:38,766 of his response options and their consequences 757 00:56:38,767 --> 00:56:42,724 has to be delievered in as little as 30 seconds 758 00:56:46,414 --> 00:56:47,882 The president normally 759 00:56:47,883 --> 00:56:50,795 would have no more than 12 minutes to make a decision, 760 00:56:50,796 --> 00:56:54,222 and maybe its little as 10 seconds. 761 00:56:56,585 --> 00:57:00,336 I knew that if the Soviets did launch an attack, 762 00:57:00,337 --> 00:57:04,822 that it would take 26 minutes for an ICBM to leave russian soil 763 00:57:04,823 --> 00:57:07,596 and land in Washington or New York. 764 00:57:07,597 --> 00:57:11,163 And I had that much time to decide how to respond. 765 00:57:37,693 --> 00:57:39,727 And the timeline was very short 766 00:57:39,728 --> 00:57:42,629 We had just a few minutes to make a decision 767 00:57:43,104 --> 00:57:46,984 how to respond at what level of intensity. 768 00:57:47,770 --> 00:57:50,464 Somewhere before the 10th minute 769 00:57:50,998 --> 00:57:53,735 the order to execute would be issued 770 00:57:54,944 --> 00:57:59,747 The Strategic Air Command probably would be airbourne by then 771 00:58:01,119 --> 00:58:02,834 just as a precaution. 772 00:58:06,055 --> 00:58:09,524 There might be a Presidential evacuation 773 00:58:09,525 --> 00:58:13,232 so that the president would survive an attack on Washington 774 00:58:15,488 --> 00:58:18,044 But I know of cases in which the President 775 00:58:18,045 --> 00:58:20,873 chose not to be evacuated 776 00:58:21,948 --> 00:58:25,741 And roughly by the 28th minute, at the latest, 777 00:58:26,842 --> 00:58:29,383 those of us not evacuated 778 00:58:29,384 --> 00:58:31,088 would be dead. 779 00:58:38,921 --> 00:58:41,449 For us it was a kind of suicide duty 780 00:58:43,282 --> 00:58:46,594 Any missile landing within half a mile of our location 781 00:58:46,595 --> 00:58:48,371 would probably have killed us 782 00:58:49,475 --> 00:58:51,265 If we had survived the attack, 783 00:58:51,266 --> 00:58:54,582 we were supposed to go to a randezvous farm 784 00:58:56,389 --> 00:58:59,000 Our air will only 24 hours, 785 00:58:59,341 --> 00:59:03,419 So we go out through an escape 786 00:59:03,420 --> 00:59:05,055 which was filled with sand 787 00:59:05,056 --> 00:59:08,671 We would have to release the bolts on cover and let the sand fall through 788 00:59:09,084 --> 00:59:11,308 and then crawl up the tube 789 00:59:13,256 --> 00:59:16,657 Our tube came up the parking lot 790 00:59:16,658 --> 00:59:20,224 so we would have to break through asphalt to get out 791 00:59:23,340 --> 00:59:25,502 The randevous point be 792 00:59:25,503 --> 00:59:29,517 50 or 100 kms away and we would have to walk. 793 00:59:32,198 --> 00:59:33,608 Disnt really matter though 794 00:59:33,609 --> 00:59:36,978 Everyone knew that the radiation would kill us quickly anyway 795 00:59:36,979 --> 00:59:39,674 and you would never make it to the rendezvous 796 01:00:09,732 --> 01:00:14,727 In 1995, Pete Sampras won the U.S. Open and Wimbledon. 797 01:00:15,517 --> 01:00:18,950 George Clooney made his first big movie 798 01:00:19,455 --> 01:00:23,825 A bomb destroyed the federal building in Oklahoma city 799 01:00:23,826 --> 01:00:27,148 OJ Simpson was acquitted of murder. 800 01:00:27,696 --> 01:00:29,731 And we also came close 801 01:00:29,732 --> 01:00:32,329 to an accidental nuclear missiles launch. 802 01:00:36,296 --> 01:00:38,976 On January 25, 1995, 803 01:00:38,977 --> 01:00:41,324 the United States launched a rocket from Norway 804 01:00:41,325 --> 01:00:43,177 to study the northern hights 805 01:00:43,178 --> 01:00:45,646 We told the Russians that we were gonna launch that rocket 806 01:00:45,647 --> 01:00:48,929 but somebody must have forgot how to pass word on it 807 01:00:49,129 --> 01:00:52,229 When they picked up the 4 stages of this rocket 808 01:00:52,287 --> 01:00:55,424 they initially interpreted this as 4 warheads 809 01:00:55,425 --> 01:00:58,659 from a U.S nuclear submarine 810 01:00:58,660 --> 01:01:00,962 which we often station off the coast of Norway 811 01:01:00,963 --> 01:01:03,231 possibly directed at Moscow. 812 01:01:03,232 --> 01:01:06,100 That fit exactly the characteristics 813 01:01:06,101 --> 01:01:08,102 of the beginning of a nuclear strike 814 01:01:08,103 --> 01:01:11,839 One missile, coming over exploding in the atmosphere 815 01:01:11,840 --> 01:01:14,041 and sending out an electromagnetic pulse 816 01:01:14,042 --> 01:01:16,654 that would fry all the electronics 817 01:01:16,655 --> 01:01:20,782 radar surveillance, Computers in the country to be attacked, 818 01:01:20,783 --> 01:01:24,665 followed by an onslought of nuclear weapons 819 01:01:24,666 --> 01:01:27,155 And for the first in the nuclear age, 820 01:01:27,156 --> 01:01:29,924 the Russians actually opened up the nuclear football 821 01:01:29,925 --> 01:01:31,604 They went to President Yeltsin, 822 01:01:31,605 --> 01:01:34,425 they opened up the command and launch codes, the button, 823 01:01:34,426 --> 01:01:37,498 put on the desk and said: "We are under attack." 824 01:01:37,499 --> 01:01:41,720 Boris Yeltsin was basically given 5 minutes to decide what to do. 825 01:01:41,804 --> 01:01:44,672 Fortunately, Yeltsin wasnt drunk 826 01:01:44,673 --> 01:01:47,237 and he didnt believe what the military was telling him. 827 01:01:47,238 --> 01:01:49,310 He said: "There must be some mistake." 828 01:01:49,311 --> 01:01:52,603 Both the U.S. and Russia guide their nuclear response 829 01:01:52,604 --> 01:01:55,929 with a doctrine called "Launch on Warning" 830 01:01:55,930 --> 01:01:58,745 It is the policy if you believe that you are under attack 831 01:01:58,746 --> 01:02:01,555 you are supposed to launch the missiles. you dont wait for them to land. 832 01:02:01,657 --> 01:02:04,025 According to Russian military doctrine 833 01:02:04,026 --> 01:02:06,671 Boris Yeltsin should have launched all out nuclear attack 834 01:02:06,672 --> 01:02:08,525 on the United States that morning. 835 01:02:08,964 --> 01:02:11,099 We do not know what happened in the Kremlin. 836 01:02:11,100 --> 01:02:13,398 All we know is that he didnt. 837 01:02:19,241 --> 01:02:23,621 There have been a no. of false alarms during the Cold War. 838 01:02:24,252 --> 01:02:27,081 We have had ocassions where the rising moon 839 01:02:27,082 --> 01:02:30,969 was interpreted to be a Russian ICBMs attack. 840 01:02:32,455 --> 01:02:36,307 A flock of geese was thought to be bombers. 841 01:02:37,926 --> 01:02:42,130 A training tape was slipped into a computer 842 01:02:42,131 --> 01:02:45,333 at our command and control headquarters at NORAD 843 01:02:45,334 --> 01:02:47,041 Everyone involved thought 844 01:02:47,042 --> 01:02:49,672 there was an actual attack underway. 845 01:02:49,963 --> 01:02:55,125 A tape was inserted into the early warning hub in Colorado 846 01:02:55,126 --> 01:02:59,124 that simulated a large scale Soviet nuclear attack. 847 01:02:59,125 --> 01:03:02,617 And no one realised that it was just a training tape 848 01:03:02,618 --> 01:03:05,083 until the U.S had gone into this sort of frenzy 849 01:03:05,084 --> 01:03:07,926 check list procedure 850 01:03:07,927 --> 01:03:10,868 to prepare for nuclear war. 851 01:03:17,930 --> 01:03:21,973 Airborne command posts, actually,in some cases, took off. 852 01:03:22,337 --> 01:03:24,938 The Presidents dooms day plane 853 01:03:25,250 --> 01:03:29,457 actually left its base in preparation 854 01:03:29,458 --> 01:03:31,801 for an incoming Soviet strike. 855 01:03:32,981 --> 01:03:35,150 Senator Charles Percy 856 01:03:35,151 --> 01:03:37,351 happened to be there at the time 857 01:03:37,352 --> 01:03:39,818 and said there was absolute panic. 858 01:03:46,005 --> 01:03:47,717 Another false alarm 859 01:03:47,718 --> 01:03:49,684 was caused by a computer 860 01:03:49,685 --> 01:03:52,500 chip malfuntion that generated 861 01:03:52,501 --> 01:03:55,387 indications of large scale Soviet attack 862 01:03:55,388 --> 01:03:58,471 We raised the alert levels. 863 01:03:59,542 --> 01:04:02,944 Crews took launch codes out of their safes. 864 01:04:02,945 --> 01:04:06,108 Inserted the keys into the launch switches. 865 01:04:10,006 --> 01:04:12,854 Zbigniew Brzezinski was woken up in the middle of the night 866 01:04:12,855 --> 01:04:15,757 with the assured instruction 867 01:04:15,758 --> 01:04:17,725 that a nuclear attack is underway 868 01:04:17,726 --> 01:04:19,888 and that he had to go wakeup President Carter. 869 01:04:21,464 --> 01:04:24,394 There was 8 minutes worth of 870 01:04:24,395 --> 01:04:26,253 nuclear launch preparations 871 01:04:26,254 --> 01:04:29,300 that were triggered by malfunctioning 872 01:04:29,301 --> 01:04:33,330 computer chip that costs less than a dollar. 873 01:04:36,180 --> 01:04:41,872 And having missiles on hair trigger is an accident waiting to happen. 874 01:04:41,873 --> 01:04:46,522 As Fermi said about the physics: 875 01:04:46,523 --> 01:04:49,823 "What isnt forbidden is compulsory,'' 876 01:04:50,153 --> 01:04:52,190 it will eventually happen. 877 01:04:53,217 --> 01:04:58,316 There is nothing that makes the launch of nuclear weapons impossible 878 01:04:59,048 --> 01:05:02,875 If the probability isnt zero, it will happen. 879 01:05:56,451 --> 01:05:59,213 Right now the world has a policy 880 01:05:59,214 --> 01:06:00,632 that is based heavily on technology 881 01:06:00,633 --> 01:06:03,197 you keep something secret and you call it a day 882 01:06:03,198 --> 01:06:06,956 But secrecy has half life. Things leak out 883 01:06:09,350 --> 01:06:14,763 Centrifuges happen to be the technology that is going to change the game. 884 01:06:16,154 --> 01:06:21,423 They are going to democratize the process of building nuclear weapons. 885 01:06:23,271 --> 01:06:25,977 Uranium exists everywhere on Earth. 886 01:06:26,727 --> 01:06:28,889 Its more common than tin. 887 01:06:31,340 --> 01:06:34,695 99.3% of all uranium is uranium 238, 888 01:06:34,696 --> 01:06:37,432 isotope that can not be used for nuclear weapons. 889 01:06:37,433 --> 01:06:41,150 except 0.7% that you need to separate out 890 01:06:43,772 --> 01:06:46,238 A centrifuge Its basically a tube. 891 01:06:47,343 --> 01:06:49,911 It spins the uranium in gas form 892 01:06:49,912 --> 01:06:53,915 and pushes the heavier atoms towards the wall. 893 01:06:53,916 --> 01:06:55,950 and the lighter atoms from the center. 894 01:06:55,951 --> 01:06:58,529 And you can skin off the light atoms 895 01:07:02,291 --> 01:07:04,719 You do this over and over again. 896 01:07:06,295 --> 01:07:08,688 Many dozens of times, 897 01:07:09,264 --> 01:07:13,361 and eventually you purify it to a level that you can use it as a bomb 898 01:07:17,323 --> 01:07:19,869 The common risk in them is they are very complicated. 899 01:07:22,011 --> 01:07:25,202 Technologies that take countries decades to build 900 01:07:25,203 --> 01:07:28,046 and the highest achievements. But the fact is, 901 01:07:28,047 --> 01:07:30,918 is that the centrifuges are 1950's technology. 902 01:07:30,919 --> 01:07:33,304 And this is 2010. 903 01:07:35,029 --> 01:07:39,025 Enriching uranium is still beyond the reach of the individual. 904 01:07:39,675 --> 01:07:42,760 It is a logistics feat, requiring thousands of centrifuges 905 01:07:42,761 --> 01:07:44,689 working for months or years. 906 01:07:46,660 --> 01:07:48,554 But highly enriched uranium 907 01:07:48,555 --> 01:07:50,763 is now within the grasp of nearly any country. 908 01:07:50,806 --> 01:07:55,194 And once you have the HEU making a crude bomb is easy 909 01:08:34,251 --> 01:08:37,051 We're not just dicussing limits 910 01:08:37,052 --> 01:08:40,204 on a further increase of nuclear weapons. 911 01:08:40,205 --> 01:08:43,257 We seek instead to reduce their numbers. 912 01:08:43,258 --> 01:08:47,362 We seek total elimination one day 913 01:08:47,363 --> 01:08:50,350 of nuclear weapons from the face of the earth. 914 01:11:13,679 --> 01:11:15,440 Happy New Year, man. 915 01:11:18,180 --> 01:11:19,999 Happy New Year. 916 01:11:20,000 --> 01:11:21,693 I love you all. 917 01:11:37,199 --> 01:11:39,867 In the first millionth of a second , 918 01:11:39,868 --> 01:11:43,036 the fireball is 500 feet across 919 01:11:43,532 --> 01:11:46,909 Within 10 seconds, it would grow to over 1 mile 920 01:11:47,543 --> 01:11:50,611 The temperature would rise to 20 million degrees Fahrenhiet 921 01:11:50,612 --> 01:11:52,747 hotter than the surface of the sun 922 01:11:52,748 --> 01:11:57,385 The blast would generate winds in excess of 650 miles an hour 923 01:11:57,386 --> 01:12:00,081 Forces of that magnitude can destroy anything 924 01:12:00,082 --> 01:12:01,556 that people can build. 925 01:12:01,557 --> 01:12:04,497 Strongest Buildings would be reduced to rubble. 926 01:12:04,498 --> 01:12:09,697 Tens of square blocks would just be melted, would just be evaporated 927 01:12:09,698 --> 01:12:14,569 Everything would be vaporized: the buildings,the cars, 928 01:12:14,570 --> 01:12:19,441 the trees,the people, the upper level of earth itself 929 01:12:32,874 --> 01:12:35,990 There were 76 000 buildings in Hiroshima. 930 01:12:35,991 --> 01:12:38,459 70 000 of them were destroyed. 931 01:12:38,460 --> 01:12:40,461 The hospitals,the fire stations 932 01:12:40,462 --> 01:12:43,498 the communications equipment; the military installations. 933 01:12:43,499 --> 01:12:45,500 Everything just flattened. 934 01:12:45,501 --> 01:12:47,635 In the first 5 to 6 miles, 935 01:12:47,636 --> 01:12:51,639 virtually everyone in that 5 mile radius is going to die. 936 01:12:51,640 --> 01:12:54,008 Somewhere between 3&4 million people 937 01:12:54,009 --> 01:12:56,744 dead immediately in the first 5 miles 938 01:12:56,745 --> 01:13:00,782 If you are lucky enough to be 8 or 9 miles away from the blast, 939 01:13:00,783 --> 01:13:05,086 then you would experience it as blast effects Windows being shattered 940 01:13:05,087 --> 01:13:08,007 It would shatter every window and turn it to hundreds of missiles 941 01:13:08,008 --> 01:13:10,178 flying outwards from the center of the explosion, 942 01:13:10,179 --> 01:13:12,126 at speeds more than 100 miles per hour 943 01:13:12,127 --> 01:13:14,262 After the blast, Its the firestorm that would combust everything 944 01:13:14,263 --> 01:13:17,999 Everything flammable would burn 945 01:13:18,000 --> 01:13:20,933 paper, cardboard, cloth, heating oil, 946 01:13:20,934 --> 01:13:22,804 gasoline. Everything would burn. 947 01:13:22,805 --> 01:13:24,872 Whole blocks would catch fire. 948 01:13:24,873 --> 01:13:26,837 Hundreds of thousands of fires would turn 949 01:13:26,838 --> 01:13:29,511 into a giant firestorm 11 miles across. 950 01:13:29,512 --> 01:13:32,313 Everything catches fire There just will be no air to breathe. 951 01:13:32,314 --> 01:13:35,420 All the oxygen would be consumed and everyone would die. 952 01:13:38,468 --> 01:13:42,092 It is useless to talk about the way you die because you are burned to death 953 01:13:42,093 --> 01:13:44,992 or because you have been blown to bits by the blast 954 01:13:44,993 --> 01:13:48,863 Anyone looking in the direction of the nuclear explosion they will be blinded. 955 01:13:48,864 --> 01:13:51,666 The lungs would be ruptured by the pressure or the eardrums would be ruptured by the pressure. 956 01:13:51,667 --> 01:13:53,901 crush injuries from buildings falling, 957 01:13:53,902 --> 01:13:56,631 broken bones thrown in the air against the buildings 958 01:13:57,172 --> 01:13:59,634 Hundreds of thousands, possibly millions 959 01:13:59,635 --> 01:14:01,338 would die from the fallout. 960 01:14:01,339 --> 01:14:04,546 The body does have a repair rate for radiation 961 01:14:04,547 --> 01:14:07,531 but the doses are so heavy and coming so quickly 962 01:14:07,532 --> 01:14:10,184 that it would overwhelm the body's repair mechanism 963 01:14:10,185 --> 01:14:11,936 The 450 to 70 RAD dose kills you 964 01:14:11,937 --> 01:14:14,628 because of white cells or blood cells 965 01:14:14,690 --> 01:14:18,893 or you will go into seasures or immediate coma 966 01:14:18,894 --> 01:14:21,970 and you will die within a matter of minutes or hours. 967 01:14:22,069 --> 01:14:25,233 Most of the doctors are going to be dead most of the nurses are going to be dead. 968 01:14:25,234 --> 01:14:27,435 Most of the hospitals are going to be destroyed. 969 01:14:27,436 --> 01:14:30,371 Huge number of casualties and no medical equipment. 970 01:14:30,372 --> 01:14:31,916 They will be a need for antibiotics. 971 01:14:31,917 --> 01:14:34,375 tens of units of blood per person. 972 01:14:34,376 --> 01:14:36,377 There wont be any electrical power 973 01:14:36,378 --> 01:14:38,240 Vast amounts of intravenous fluids 974 01:14:38,241 --> 01:14:39,847 to sustain people that have been burned,just burned. 975 01:14:39,848 --> 01:14:41,983 You couldnt treat all the burn victims. 976 01:14:41,984 --> 01:14:45,155 And there comes a certain point the casualties become so high 977 01:14:45,187 --> 01:14:48,289 its pointless to try to make any sense out of it. 978 01:14:48,290 --> 01:14:50,758 The doctor in the Red Cross Hospital 979 01:14:50,759 --> 01:14:52,794 who turns into an automaton, 980 01:14:58,329 --> 01:15:01,602 And that's what desended on the physicians and nurses 981 01:15:01,603 --> 01:15:03,784 in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. 982 01:15:04,648 --> 01:15:07,560 Someone would surely claim they had 10 more 983 01:15:07,561 --> 01:15:09,377 that were already hidden somewhere 984 01:15:09,378 --> 01:15:10,873 and then start setting them off and blast 985 01:15:10,874 --> 01:15:12,653 unless they meet their demands. 986 01:15:12,654 --> 01:15:14,908 Every other big city is gonna wonder 987 01:15:14,909 --> 01:15:17,587 -whether they might be a target. - Pulic panic, 988 01:15:17,658 --> 01:15:19,619 the people fleeing major cities 989 01:15:19,620 --> 01:15:22,078 You could forget about the rules of search and seizure. 990 01:15:22,079 --> 01:15:24,225 You are gonna have to be searching everywhere 991 01:15:24,226 --> 01:15:27,492 You could forget about civil liberties when people realize 992 01:15:27,493 --> 01:15:29,584 a whole city was just destroyed. 993 01:15:29,619 --> 01:15:32,268 Take the Bill of Rights,you put it on a shelf 994 01:15:32,269 --> 01:15:33,822 and you might never see it again. 995 01:15:33,887 --> 01:15:36,926 People would be demanding draconian measures 996 01:15:36,927 --> 01:15:40,534 to make sure that another city didnt go up. 997 01:16:10,506 --> 01:16:13,082 Some people laughed. 998 01:16:14,787 --> 01:16:16,431 Few people cried. 999 01:16:16,746 --> 01:16:18,900 Most people were silent. 1000 01:16:23,183 --> 01:16:27,107 I remembered the line from the Hindu Scripture, 1001 01:16:27,108 --> 01:16:28,794 the Bhagavad Gita. 1002 01:16:31,360 --> 01:16:33,313 Vishnu ... 1003 01:16:35,030 --> 01:16:37,993 trying to persuade the prince 1004 01:16:39,530 --> 01:16:41,602 he should do his duty 1005 01:16:41,603 --> 01:16:44,238 and to impress him, 1006 01:16:44,239 --> 01:16:47,405 takes on his multiarmed form 1007 01:16:48,094 --> 01:16:49,693 and says: 1008 01:16:49,979 --> 01:16:54,118 "Now I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds. " 1009 01:17:17,740 --> 01:17:20,942 Every man, woman and child 1010 01:17:20,943 --> 01:17:24,746 lives under a nuclear sword of Damocles, 1011 01:17:24,747 --> 01:17:27,949 hanging by the slenderest of threads, 1012 01:17:27,950 --> 01:17:30,752 capable of being cut at any moment 1013 01:17:30,753 --> 01:17:35,155 by accident, or miscalculation or by madness. 1014 01:17:35,926 --> 01:17:38,292 . The weapons of war must be abolished 1015 01:17:38,293 --> 01:17:40,503 before they abolish us. 1016 01:17:55,411 --> 01:17:57,377 The Cuban Missile Crisis 1017 01:17:57,378 --> 01:18:00,679 endanger the very existence of our nation. 1018 01:18:01,216 --> 01:18:04,635 Wecame that close to nuclear war. 1019 01:18:07,656 --> 01:18:11,259 Neither the Soviet nor we, the US 1020 01:18:11,260 --> 01:18:14,674 intended to put our nation at risk. 1021 01:18:14,997 --> 01:18:18,559 And the next time we may not be so lucky 1022 01:18:20,249 --> 01:18:22,659 They kill by the millions. 1023 01:18:22,660 --> 01:18:25,873 They kill in numbers that the human imaginations 1024 01:18:25,874 --> 01:18:28,099 simply cannot comprehend. 1025 01:18:29,257 --> 01:18:33,514 I asked: "Well we have nuclear weapons to prevent their use. " 1026 01:18:33,515 --> 01:18:35,949 we now know that we live in a world in which, 1027 01:18:35,950 --> 01:18:39,023 if we possession, if any one possesses, 1028 01:18:39,024 --> 01:18:41,210 they will be used. 1029 01:18:41,211 --> 01:18:44,759 I dont see any good that a nuclear weapon could be a threat to the world. 1030 01:18:44,760 --> 01:18:46,828 In my opinion, you can forget them. 1031 01:18:46,829 --> 01:18:49,297 I think they should be destroyed. 1032 01:18:49,298 --> 01:18:51,199 I think we are better off without them. 1033 01:18:51,200 --> 01:18:55,203 Theres a 183 countries in the world that do not have nuclear weapons. 1034 01:18:55,204 --> 01:18:58,039 Many of these countries could have nuclear weapons. 1035 01:18:58,040 --> 01:19:00,107 They have chosen not to have them. 1036 01:19:02,210 --> 01:19:06,588 We have decided to take al 180 degrees turn in South Africa 1037 01:19:06,589 --> 01:19:08,228 When I became President 1038 01:19:08,229 --> 01:19:12,445 I was then informed that we have completed six devices 1039 01:19:12,446 --> 01:19:17,882 more or less comparable to the bombs which were actually used at Hiroshima. 1040 01:19:18,786 --> 01:19:22,764 I indicated that i would like us to stop this program 1041 01:19:22,765 --> 01:19:26,214 and to become part of the mainstream world again 1042 01:19:26,850 --> 01:19:30,189 The only way to eliminate the threat of nuclear terrorism 1043 01:19:30,190 --> 01:19:33,568 is to eliminate all nuclear weapons in all countries. 1044 01:19:33,575 --> 01:19:38,379 We have got to ensure that never once the terrorists suceed 1045 01:19:38,380 --> 01:19:40,311 in detonating a nuclear weapon. 1046 01:19:41,050 --> 01:19:43,951 You think about nuclear security 1047 01:19:43,952 --> 01:19:46,033 its all about the material 1048 01:19:46,055 --> 01:19:50,492 The simple physical fact is that if you dont have fissile material ... 1049 01:19:50,493 --> 01:19:54,041 either highly enriched uranium or plutonium for example ... 1050 01:19:54,042 --> 01:19:56,062 you cannot have a nuclear weapon. 1051 01:19:56,721 --> 01:19:59,527 The focus is all about material. 1052 01:19:59,702 --> 01:20:01,903 Stop making new material. 1053 01:20:01,904 --> 01:20:04,739 Secure the material where you know it is around the world 1054 01:20:04,740 --> 01:20:08,443 And make sure that you detect the illicit transfer of material. 1055 01:20:08,444 --> 01:20:11,084 And then start getting rid of the material that you have 1056 01:20:11,580 --> 01:20:15,850 Today in the world we have about 1,700 tons of HEU. 1057 01:20:15,851 --> 01:20:21,119 So that's enough material for around the order of 50 to100 thousand weapons 1058 01:20:21,120 --> 01:20:23,105 to really create a truely 1059 01:20:23,106 --> 01:20:25,723 international system for these facilities. 1060 01:20:25,724 --> 01:20:27,952 International Fuel banks 1061 01:20:27,953 --> 01:20:29,780 or International reprocessing centers... 1062 01:20:29,781 --> 01:20:31,666 that would be a mauch safer world 1063 01:20:31,667 --> 01:20:34,569 We havnt lost an ounce of gold from Fort Knox. 1064 01:20:34,570 --> 01:20:36,738 We shouldnt lose an ounce of plutonium 1065 01:20:36,739 --> 01:20:38,970 or highly enriched uranium. 1066 01:20:39,241 --> 01:20:40,791 During the Cold War, 1067 01:20:40,792 --> 01:20:43,593 I believed in the value of nuclear weapons 1068 01:20:43,594 --> 01:20:45,306 to detter an attack. 1069 01:20:45,581 --> 01:20:48,282 20 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, 1070 01:20:48,283 --> 01:20:51,364 there is no excuse any longer for keeping nuclear weapons 1071 01:20:51,365 --> 01:20:53,675 on launch ready laert 1072 01:20:53,676 --> 01:20:57,859 We can remove all of the warheads on our missiles , 1073 01:20:57,860 --> 01:21:00,661 share our safe guards technology 1074 01:21:00,662 --> 01:21:03,464 and establish a joint warning center 1075 01:21:03,465 --> 01:21:07,767 to ensure Nuclear war cannot happen by mistake. 1076 01:21:08,499 --> 01:21:11,839 When I came into government in the early '1980s, 1077 01:21:11,840 --> 01:21:16,377 the idea that within about10 years, both sides would have agreed 1078 01:21:16,378 --> 01:21:19,347 to have 50% reduction in their Nuclear weapons 1079 01:21:19,348 --> 01:21:23,082 would have sounded absurd. But we achieved it. 1080 01:21:23,083 --> 01:21:28,131 That means a reduction of more than 5,000 nuclear warheads a piece 1081 01:21:29,158 --> 01:21:32,527 We have gone almost 20 years now 1082 01:21:32,528 --> 01:21:36,664 without really any demonstrative steps 1083 01:21:36,665 --> 01:21:38,744 to nuclear reductions 1084 01:21:38,745 --> 01:21:41,888 This has to be a step by step process 1085 01:21:43,739 --> 01:21:46,339 That's how we did it with chemical weapons. 1086 01:21:46,653 --> 01:21:48,675 These weapons are now taboo. 1087 01:21:49,946 --> 01:21:53,681 The Soviet Union imploded when I was Sec of State 1088 01:21:53,682 --> 01:21:56,851 and we actually got an enforceable treaty 1089 01:21:56,852 --> 01:21:59,921 where we goot Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine 1090 01:21:59,922 --> 01:22:02,003 to give up their nuclear weapons. 1091 01:22:02,057 --> 01:22:04,692 All countries in the world have to sign 1092 01:22:04,693 --> 01:22:07,228 a legally binding, 1093 01:22:07,229 --> 01:22:09,364 intrusively verifiable agreement 1094 01:22:09,365 --> 01:22:11,835 to rid the world of nuclear weapons. 1095 01:22:12,517 --> 01:22:16,006 The choice we face is eliminate nuclear weapons 1096 01:22:16,071 --> 01:22:19,806 or live in a world with 25 or 30 nuclear powers. 1097 01:22:20,106 --> 01:22:21,909 We can do this 1098 01:22:21,910 --> 01:22:24,805 There has to be a 1099 01:22:24,806 --> 01:22:27,029 carefully orchestrated process of reductions 1100 01:22:27,030 --> 01:22:28,772 The United States and Russia, 1101 01:22:28,773 --> 01:22:32,530 with 96% of the worlds nuclear weapons have to lead the way 1102 01:22:32,855 --> 01:22:37,069 We start in a world where there are 23,000 nuclear weapons. 1103 01:22:37,159 --> 01:22:41,436 The very first step is to cut those arsenals dramatically 1104 01:22:41,437 --> 01:22:43,297 in the United States and Russia. 1105 01:22:43,298 --> 01:22:46,968 Once you get down to low hundreds in the world 1106 01:22:46,969 --> 01:22:49,971 then you have built up the confidence and the mechanisms 1107 01:22:49,972 --> 01:22:52,714 to ensure that you can verify this process 1108 01:22:52,715 --> 01:22:55,009 so that we can get rid of the last one 1109 01:22:55,010 --> 01:22:57,260 - None. - Should be zero. 1110 01:22:57,579 --> 01:22:59,178 I say zero. 1111 01:23:04,086 --> 01:23:06,654 - Never - We'd rather not have them. I think 1112 01:23:11,493 --> 01:23:14,482 - None. - Zero. 1113 01:23:14,797 --> 01:23:16,965 No nuclear weapons. Zero. 1114 01:23:16,966 --> 01:23:18,933 - Zero. - Zero. 1115 01:23:18,934 --> 01:23:20,568 No country should have them. 1116 01:23:20,569 --> 01:23:23,895 The ultimate number is none. Ideally will be zero 1117 01:23:24,039 --> 01:23:27,446 - Zero nuclear weapons. - Zero. Zero. 1118 01:23:43,592 --> 01:23:45,693 We have taken important steps forward 1119 01:23:45,694 --> 01:23:47,462 to increase nuclear security 1120 01:23:47,463 --> 01:23:49,864 and to stop the spread of nuclear weapons. 1121 01:23:49,865 --> 01:23:51,866 This starts with the reduction 1122 01:23:51,867 --> 01:23:53,968 of our own nuclear arsenals. 1123 01:23:53,969 --> 01:23:58,872 This legally binding treaty will be completed this year. 1124 01:23:59,579 --> 01:24:02,643 The arms control agreements we negotiated 1125 01:24:02,644 --> 01:24:05,213 between the United States and the Soviet Union ... 1126 01:24:05,214 --> 01:24:07,782 You think these were independent initiatives 1127 01:24:07,783 --> 01:24:09,984 taken by governments, 1128 01:24:09,985 --> 01:24:12,170 but the fact is that public opinion 1129 01:24:12,171 --> 01:24:14,642 had a big role to play in the process 1130 01:24:14,790 --> 01:24:17,091 - President Kennedy, 1131 01:24:17,092 --> 01:24:19,961 After he passed the limited test ban treaty 1132 01:24:19,962 --> 01:24:22,430 and whenever he mentioned it on the stump afterwards he 1133 01:24:22,431 --> 01:24:25,587 got thunderous applause. And he quote: 1134 01:24:25,588 --> 01:24:27,602 "If I had known that it was so popular, 1135 01:24:27,603 --> 01:24:30,003 "I would have done it a long time ago. " 1136 01:24:30,338 --> 01:24:32,407 The elimination of nuclear weapons 1137 01:24:32,408 --> 01:24:36,610 has not yet been agreed to by political leaders of the world. 1138 01:24:36,779 --> 01:24:40,702 It's a revolutionary idea, but they can be eliminated. 1139 01:24:45,754 --> 01:24:48,256 We have to change our way of thinking. 1140 01:24:48,257 --> 01:24:51,025 And if we cant change our way of thinking, 1141 01:24:51,026 --> 01:24:54,133 we wont survive. Its that simple 1142 01:24:55,030 --> 01:24:56,763 I have changed my way of thinking 1143 01:24:56,764 --> 01:24:59,327 and millions and millions of other people are changing their thinking 1144 01:24:59,328 --> 01:25:03,004 And, frankly, if you have never changed your mind about something, 1145 01:25:03,005 --> 01:25:06,353 I .. pinch yourself You maybe dead. 1146 01:25:06,542 --> 01:25:08,976 Subtitles by: Aatif