1
00:01:01,195 --> 00:01:03,797
Nuclear war could quite possibly

2
00:01:03,897 --> 00:01:06,367
finish off
civilization altogether.

3
00:01:15,309 --> 00:01:18,146
Climate change
left to run its own course

4
00:01:18,246 --> 00:01:21,315
could also finish us off.

5
00:01:26,154 --> 00:01:27,488
The existential issue

6
00:01:27,588 --> 00:01:31,792
is whether we can foresee
what needs to be done

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00:01:31,892 --> 00:01:34,228
and get it done
in time to matter.

8
00:01:40,168 --> 00:01:42,002
We are always in a race

9
00:01:42,170 --> 00:01:45,639
between what our intelligence
can do for us

10
00:01:47,475 --> 00:01:50,644
and what our intelligence
does to us.

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Drought and food shortage...

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00:02:00,554 --> 00:02:02,656
A just-released report
from the Pentagon...

13
00:02:02,756 --> 00:02:06,194
climate change and the challenges
it's creating for the military.

14
00:02:06,294 --> 00:02:07,828
The latest report says
global warming

15
00:02:07,928 --> 00:02:10,631
is driving weather
to new levels of extremes.

16
00:02:10,731 --> 00:02:13,267
A growing threat
to national security.

17
00:02:19,273 --> 00:02:21,742
The predicted consequences
of a warming world

18
00:02:21,842 --> 00:02:23,511
are already with us.

19
00:02:23,611 --> 00:02:25,446
Climate change
and natural disasters

20
00:02:25,546 --> 00:02:29,283
can cause humanitarian crises,
population migrations.

21
00:02:31,219 --> 00:02:33,487
Scarcity of water, food,
and space

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00:02:33,587 --> 00:02:36,657
could lead to failed states,
instability,

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00:02:36,757 --> 00:02:39,427
and potentially radicalization.

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00:02:39,527 --> 00:02:42,296
Senator, there's no question
that environmental security

25
00:02:42,396 --> 00:02:45,866
can have a dramatic affect
on overall security

26
00:02:45,966 --> 00:02:48,068
both in individual states
and regionally.

27
00:02:48,236 --> 00:02:51,672
Never before have so many people
fled war and persecution.

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00:02:51,772 --> 00:02:55,543
This is climate change
far beyond the melting ice caps.

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00:03:03,384 --> 00:03:05,786
Global climate change,
while not new to history,

30
00:03:05,886 --> 00:03:08,256
is new to the modern world.

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00:03:10,524 --> 00:03:13,827
It can significantly
add to the challenges

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00:03:13,927 --> 00:03:15,263
of global instability:

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00:03:15,296 --> 00:03:17,765
Hunger, poverty, and conflict.

34
00:03:19,400 --> 00:03:20,968
The effects of climate change

35
00:03:21,068 --> 00:03:24,104
are far-reaching
and unpredictable,

36
00:03:24,272 --> 00:03:27,508
demanding our attention
and strategic thinking.

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00:03:28,742 --> 00:03:30,278
The U.S. department of defense

38
00:03:30,311 --> 00:03:34,348
is preparing to adapt to these
21st century challenges.

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00:03:47,428 --> 00:03:49,663
The intersection
of climate change

40
00:03:49,763 --> 00:03:51,299
and the security of nations

41
00:03:51,365 --> 00:03:55,836
will become a defining reality
in the years ahead.

42
00:03:55,936 --> 00:03:59,307
We cannot ignore the costs
of inaction

43
00:03:59,373 --> 00:04:03,311
and we cannot leave these
massive security concerns

44
00:04:03,377 --> 00:04:07,315
to the next generation.

45
00:04:07,381 --> 00:04:11,519
We are now in the age
of consequences.

46
00:04:25,366 --> 00:04:27,568
Think about it from
a military perspective.

47
00:04:27,668 --> 00:04:29,870
When I was leading
paratroopers in Afghanistan,

48
00:04:29,970 --> 00:04:32,606
if 98, 99% of my intelligence

49
00:04:32,706 --> 00:04:35,909
told me that I was driving
my platoon down a road

50
00:04:36,009 --> 00:04:38,178
and that two miles
down that road

51
00:04:38,346 --> 00:04:39,112
there's an ambush
waiting for me.

52
00:04:40,848 --> 00:04:42,916
I don't get to say,
"yeah, but there's that 1%"

53
00:04:43,016 --> 00:04:44,352
that says
that there's no ambush,

54
00:04:44,418 --> 00:04:46,053
so to hell with the other 99%.

55
00:04:46,153 --> 00:04:48,221
"We're gonna
keep going down the road."

56
00:04:48,356 --> 00:04:52,626
I mean, that's negligence
on an unfathomable scale.

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00:04:52,726 --> 00:04:54,227
That's the debate
we're having right now

58
00:04:54,428 --> 00:04:55,228
with regard to climate.

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00:04:55,429 --> 00:04:57,230
The overwhelming consensus

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00:04:57,365 --> 00:05:00,368
is we are facing a massive risk.

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00:05:00,401 --> 00:05:02,370
Climate change is happening.

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00:05:02,403 --> 00:05:05,238
We've got to decide whether
we're going to act on it or not.

63
00:05:05,373 --> 00:05:07,608
And that choice
has consequences.

64
00:05:11,812 --> 00:05:15,583
Climate change impacts
the basic resources

65
00:05:15,683 --> 00:05:19,387
that are necessary
for humans to survive

66
00:05:19,453 --> 00:05:24,091
and for nations to continue.

67
00:05:24,191 --> 00:05:28,261
As we see our resources
stressed significantly,

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00:05:28,396 --> 00:05:30,464
we're gonna see some
unprecedented changes

69
00:05:30,564 --> 00:05:32,833
that we have to prepare for.

70
00:05:32,933 --> 00:05:35,268
The risks of climate change

71
00:05:35,403 --> 00:05:38,071
impact on every facet of life.

72
00:05:38,171 --> 00:05:41,409
They impact on every facet
of national security

73
00:05:41,475 --> 00:05:43,911
and of international security.

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00:05:44,011 --> 00:05:46,480
That makes instability.

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00:05:46,580 --> 00:05:50,884
That makes conflict
much more likely.

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00:05:55,022 --> 00:05:57,525
The first time I thought about
climate change and violence

77
00:05:57,625 --> 00:06:00,428
was in Afghanistan
while researching opium Poppy

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00:06:00,494 --> 00:06:03,664
from which heroin is made.

79
00:06:03,764 --> 00:06:05,566
Every time
I interviewed farmers,

80
00:06:05,666 --> 00:06:07,435
they said, "part of why
we grow this crop"

81
00:06:07,501 --> 00:06:09,670
is because
it's drought-resistant."

82
00:06:09,770 --> 00:06:11,304
Turns out Afghanistan

83
00:06:11,439 --> 00:06:13,040
is going through the worst
drought in living memory,

84
00:06:13,140 --> 00:06:16,844
and Poppy uses one fifth
the amount of water

85
00:06:16,944 --> 00:06:19,547
that wheat uses.

86
00:06:19,647 --> 00:06:23,551
The Karzai government
were eradicating Poppy.

87
00:06:23,651 --> 00:06:25,986
The Taliban, on the other hand,

88
00:06:26,086 --> 00:06:27,521
said to the farmers,

89
00:06:27,621 --> 00:06:31,525
"we will defend your right
to grow this crop."

90
00:06:31,625 --> 00:06:34,862
Even in that conflict which
has this elaborate history,

91
00:06:34,962 --> 00:06:38,131
there is a climate aspect.

92
00:06:38,231 --> 00:06:40,568
It's always a question
of how climate change

93
00:06:40,668 --> 00:06:43,771
interacts with other
pre-existing problems.

94
00:06:49,810 --> 00:06:54,081
If you have an area
that is already unstable

95
00:06:54,181 --> 00:06:58,018
and then has the additional
challenge of sea level rise,

96
00:06:58,118 --> 00:06:59,587
extreme weather events,

97
00:06:59,687 --> 00:07:01,789
water shortages
or food shortages

98
00:07:01,889 --> 00:07:04,892
or a disaster
that makes people move,

99
00:07:04,992 --> 00:07:07,895
then you can start seeing
conflict situations.

100
00:07:10,698 --> 00:07:13,100
It's all
the underlying conditions.

101
00:07:13,200 --> 00:07:15,636
Climate change is the stimulus
or the catalyst

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00:07:15,736 --> 00:07:19,740
that can cause all of that
to agitate and become conflict.

103
00:07:39,660 --> 00:07:41,862
From my perspective
as a former member

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00:07:41,962 --> 00:07:43,230
of the United States military

105
00:07:43,330 --> 00:07:45,533
and 30 plus years
of service in uniform,

106
00:07:45,599 --> 00:07:50,203
climate change is what we call
an accelerant to instability.

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00:07:50,303 --> 00:07:53,006
It is what's causing
a lot of the conflict

108
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or helping assist the conflict

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00:07:55,208 --> 00:07:56,610
that's going on
around the world.

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And you can see that
on the front pages

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of the paper
virtually every day.

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00:08:37,751 --> 00:08:39,252
If you look
around the world today,

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00:08:39,352 --> 00:08:41,589
we can already see
conflict and climate in play

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00:08:41,622 --> 00:08:43,857
right under the headlines
that we're reading.

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00:08:43,957 --> 00:08:45,593
The international red cross

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00:08:45,626 --> 00:08:48,195
is now designating
Syria's deadly conflict

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00:08:48,295 --> 00:08:50,898
to be a full-blown civil war.

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00:08:50,998 --> 00:08:54,467
Think about relationships
we don't often look at.

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The civil war in Syria,

120
00:08:56,236 --> 00:08:58,138
now going on for years,

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00:08:58,238 --> 00:09:00,641
hundreds of thousands dead,

122
00:09:00,741 --> 00:09:03,611
the entire region
is in chaos as a result.

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00:09:10,618 --> 00:09:13,220
A new study finds
climate change exacerbated

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00:09:13,320 --> 00:09:15,288
the worst drought ever
in modern Syria

125
00:09:15,388 --> 00:09:19,092
as a consequence
of human interference.

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00:09:19,192 --> 00:09:20,628
Professor Richard Seager

127
00:09:20,694 --> 00:09:22,262
says that a three-year drought

128
00:09:22,362 --> 00:09:24,865
played a huge role
in pushing the Syrian people

129
00:09:24,965 --> 00:09:26,767
into an all-out civil war.

130
00:09:26,867 --> 00:09:30,871
This is the first study
that quantitatively

131
00:09:30,971 --> 00:09:34,141
draws a connection
between climate change

132
00:09:34,241 --> 00:09:38,011
and the onset of a conflict.

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00:09:38,111 --> 00:09:40,648
Syria began to experience

134
00:09:40,714 --> 00:09:42,515
a serious multi-year drought

135
00:09:42,650 --> 00:09:44,852
in the winter of 2006, 2007.

136
00:09:44,952 --> 00:09:49,757
And that drought lasted
for three consecutive years.

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00:09:49,857 --> 00:09:53,060
Farming families just
cannot survive on the land

138
00:09:53,160 --> 00:09:55,763
when a drought lasts that long.

139
00:09:55,863 --> 00:09:58,565
As people try to feed
their families and can't,

140
00:09:58,666 --> 00:10:00,868
they've got to go somewhere.

141
00:10:00,968 --> 00:10:03,103
The drought caused
a large number

142
00:10:03,203 --> 00:10:04,772
of young Syrian
men in particular

143
00:10:04,872 --> 00:10:07,274
to leave farmland
and go to the cities.

144
00:10:07,374 --> 00:10:09,076
Damascus, Aleppo,

145
00:10:09,176 --> 00:10:12,045
one and a half plus
million people had to move.

146
00:10:12,145 --> 00:10:15,215
That has a major
destabilizing impact

147
00:10:15,315 --> 00:10:16,950
when people have
to pick up and leave

148
00:10:17,050 --> 00:10:19,953
whether it's because of conflict
or resource scarcity.

149
00:10:20,053 --> 00:10:21,521
As anyone can tell you,

150
00:10:21,621 --> 00:10:23,390
a bunch of unemployed
young men in a major city

151
00:10:23,490 --> 00:10:25,826
is not a recipe
for social stability.

152
00:10:33,033 --> 00:10:35,703
Now Syria had already absorbed

153
00:10:35,803 --> 00:10:37,738
about a million
and a half refugees

154
00:10:37,838 --> 00:10:41,274
from Iraq who were fleeing
the civil war there.

155
00:10:41,374 --> 00:10:42,976
Those numbers combined such

156
00:10:43,076 --> 00:10:45,278
that the population
of Syrian cities

157
00:10:45,378 --> 00:10:49,016
grew by about 30% or more.

158
00:10:49,116 --> 00:10:52,185
That rate of migration
is absolutely catastrophic.

159
00:10:52,285 --> 00:10:54,321
It drove food prices up,

160
00:10:54,421 --> 00:10:56,323
it drove apartment prices up,

161
00:10:56,423 --> 00:10:57,858
strained the health system,

162
00:10:57,958 --> 00:11:01,461
all leading to the kinds
of conditions of discontent

163
00:11:01,729 --> 00:11:03,630
to the all-out civil war

164
00:11:03,731 --> 00:11:06,433
that is still going on now.

165
00:11:06,533 --> 00:11:10,738
When we analyzed all the
precipitation data we could get,

166
00:11:10,838 --> 00:11:13,106
we found that we just
couldn't attribute

167
00:11:13,206 --> 00:11:15,575
such a long and serious drought

168
00:11:15,743 --> 00:11:18,278
to natural climate
variability alone.

169
00:11:18,378 --> 00:11:22,282
That particular drought was
two to three times more likely

170
00:11:22,382 --> 00:11:26,253
because of climate change.

171
00:11:26,353 --> 00:11:28,121
We of course did not say

172
00:11:28,221 --> 00:11:32,860
drought was the sole cause
of the Syrian civil war.

173
00:11:32,960 --> 00:11:37,430
It's the confluence
of multiple causes coming in,

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00:11:37,530 --> 00:11:39,833
with climate being one of them.

175
00:11:43,771 --> 00:11:46,106
Climate change
is all about the water.

176
00:11:46,206 --> 00:11:51,078
So we have climate change
leading to rainfall variability.

177
00:11:52,045 --> 00:11:54,915
We don't necessarily know
when the water is gonna come.

178
00:11:55,015 --> 00:11:56,917
We can't predict
that we're gonna get

179
00:11:57,017 --> 00:11:59,787
the same amount of water
as we used to get,

180
00:11:59,853 --> 00:12:02,422
and that is going to have
a huge impact

181
00:12:02,522 --> 00:12:06,393
on whether or not
we can grow food.

182
00:12:06,493 --> 00:12:08,628
So in the case of Syria,

183
00:12:08,796 --> 00:12:10,263
we're talking about
how climate change

184
00:12:10,363 --> 00:12:12,132
impacts water resources,

185
00:12:12,232 --> 00:12:14,034
how that impacts food resources,

186
00:12:14,134 --> 00:12:16,870
and what that means
for what people do for a living,

187
00:12:16,970 --> 00:12:20,507
whether it's farm, herd animals,

188
00:12:20,607 --> 00:12:23,310
or join a terrorist
organization.

189
00:12:26,814 --> 00:12:29,282
This is a city draped in black

190
00:12:29,382 --> 00:12:32,652
and a city raging with anger.

191
00:12:32,820 --> 00:12:33,987
This is Isis,

192
00:12:34,087 --> 00:12:36,256
the Islamic state
of Iraq and Syria.

193
00:12:36,356 --> 00:12:38,691
As people moved
into those cities in Syria,

194
00:12:38,826 --> 00:12:40,994
they were unemployed,
didn't have a source of food.

195
00:12:41,094 --> 00:12:43,096
They needed
to feed their families.

196
00:12:43,196 --> 00:12:46,299
ISIL promised them
both those things

197
00:12:46,399 --> 00:12:49,302
despite the philosophy
behind their organizations,

198
00:12:49,402 --> 00:12:51,939
people want to survive first.

199
00:12:52,039 --> 00:12:54,207
Isis was pre-existing
in the region

200
00:12:54,307 --> 00:12:58,278
and would have existed even there
had not been a drought in Syria,

201
00:12:58,378 --> 00:13:02,850
but once the Syrian society
began to unravel,

202
00:13:02,916 --> 00:13:05,152
every actor within that region

203
00:13:05,252 --> 00:13:08,488
saw an opportunity
to try to use the crisis

204
00:13:08,588 --> 00:13:12,525
to advance
their pre-existing agenda.

205
00:13:12,625 --> 00:13:14,962
Isis has certainly
taken advantage

206
00:13:15,062 --> 00:13:16,729
of scarce water resources,

207
00:13:16,864 --> 00:13:18,866
creating leverage
over local populations.

208
00:13:18,966 --> 00:13:20,868
Isis has just taken over a dam

209
00:13:20,901 --> 00:13:21,969
near the key city of Ramadi,

210
00:13:22,069 --> 00:13:23,403
shutting it down
and preventing water

211
00:13:23,503 --> 00:13:25,105
from reaching two key towns.

212
00:13:25,205 --> 00:13:30,077
Their goal, to quote
"kill people of thirst."

213
00:13:30,177 --> 00:13:32,880
They're securing access
to river towns.

214
00:13:32,946 --> 00:13:34,481
They're securing access
to water supplies,

215
00:13:34,581 --> 00:13:36,183
and it's driving their strategy.

216
00:13:36,283 --> 00:13:39,286
Water becomes
an instrument of war

217
00:13:39,386 --> 00:13:42,522
for these people
who are looking to take over.

218
00:13:42,622 --> 00:13:44,024
You control the water,

219
00:13:44,124 --> 00:13:46,293
you control the livelihood
of the people.

220
00:13:48,962 --> 00:13:51,531
Climate change is gonna impact
the amount of water.

221
00:13:51,631 --> 00:13:53,967
It'll impact
who controls the water.

222
00:13:54,067 --> 00:13:55,969
That'll impact the instability.

223
00:13:56,069 --> 00:13:58,939
The climate change that
we're gonna be experiencing

224
00:13:59,039 --> 00:14:01,574
over the next few years
is way in excess

225
00:14:01,674 --> 00:14:04,011
of what we've experienced
up to now.

226
00:14:04,111 --> 00:14:07,014
And I think the Syria case
is a real wake-up

227
00:14:07,114 --> 00:14:09,016
for what
the consequences can be,

228
00:14:09,116 --> 00:14:11,919
and this is really early on
in this game.

229
00:14:11,985 --> 00:14:14,021
It's in the U.S.
national interest

230
00:14:14,121 --> 00:14:16,924
to ensure that there's
a stability globally.

231
00:14:17,024 --> 00:14:20,127
Those are things
that can come home to us.

232
00:14:47,955 --> 00:14:48,956
You can always look at Syria

233
00:14:48,989 --> 00:14:50,357
and say, "well, it's Isis,"

234
00:14:50,457 --> 00:14:51,491
or, "well, it's Assad."

235
00:14:51,591 --> 00:14:53,426
Yes, it is Isis.
Yes, it's Assad.

236
00:14:53,526 --> 00:14:56,463
But there's a backdrop
which has to do with climate.

237
00:14:58,966 --> 00:15:03,270
That's gonna happen
over and over and over again.

238
00:15:03,370 --> 00:15:06,006
Each time we'll have a different
political or ideological story to tell,

239
00:15:06,106 --> 00:15:07,440
each time it'll be true,

240
00:15:07,540 --> 00:15:10,677
and each time the underlying
factor will be climate.

241
00:15:22,289 --> 00:15:24,524
When you talk about
climate change,

242
00:15:24,624 --> 00:15:26,426
it's a national
security challenge

243
00:15:26,526 --> 00:15:27,995
in the broadest possible sense,

244
00:15:28,095 --> 00:15:31,098
in that these changing
weather patterns over time

245
00:15:31,198 --> 00:15:33,666
are going to affect
the way we live.

246
00:15:33,766 --> 00:15:35,268
They're going to affect
our food supply,

247
00:15:35,368 --> 00:15:39,039
our water supply, the heat
of the environment we live in.

248
00:15:41,008 --> 00:15:42,409
Security in the broadest sense

249
00:15:42,509 --> 00:15:45,112
is about all the things
that we care about day to day.

250
00:15:45,212 --> 00:15:48,048
Are you safe?
Can you feed your family?

251
00:15:48,148 --> 00:15:50,517
Can your children go to school?

252
00:15:50,617 --> 00:15:52,252
When you talk about
climate change

253
00:15:52,352 --> 00:15:55,588
as a national security challenge
in the military sense,

254
00:15:55,688 --> 00:15:57,657
you're talking about
how does it affect

255
00:15:57,757 --> 00:15:59,659
what the military has to do?

256
00:15:59,759 --> 00:16:02,495
The missions it goes on,

257
00:16:02,595 --> 00:16:05,332
or support here at home.

258
00:16:05,432 --> 00:16:09,102
How does it affect what they need
to be ready for in the future?

259
00:16:12,039 --> 00:16:15,042
We all know
that human activities

260
00:16:15,108 --> 00:16:17,377
are changing the atmosphere

261
00:16:17,477 --> 00:16:22,049
in unexpected
and in unprecedented ways.

262
00:16:26,519 --> 00:16:31,358
I first saw the effects on national
security and national defense

263
00:16:32,059 --> 00:16:36,663
in Somalia in the early '90s.

264
00:16:36,763 --> 00:16:39,632
The essential nature
of that conflict

265
00:16:39,732 --> 00:16:42,702
was originally caused by drought

266
00:16:42,802 --> 00:16:46,973
and a lack of food,
simply stated,

267
00:16:47,074 --> 00:16:50,077
and we began to see
a major trend.

268
00:16:50,143 --> 00:16:52,912
Climate change
is one of the variables

269
00:16:53,080 --> 00:16:54,281
that must be considered

270
00:16:54,381 --> 00:16:57,384
when thinking about
instability in the world.

271
00:17:00,287 --> 00:17:02,489
I'd like to turn now
to Sherri Goodman.

272
00:17:02,589 --> 00:17:04,924
She served as deputy
undersecretary of defense

273
00:17:05,092 --> 00:17:06,259
for environmental security.

274
00:17:06,359 --> 00:17:08,261
Like many of you probably now,

275
00:17:08,361 --> 00:17:10,430
you want to work on
the big issues of the day.

276
00:17:10,530 --> 00:17:11,931
That's what I wanted to do,

277
00:17:12,099 --> 00:17:14,101
so I was in the field
of national security.

278
00:17:14,167 --> 00:17:17,737
Nuclear weapons and arms control
were the big challenges,

279
00:17:17,837 --> 00:17:19,239
but it was actually
during an era

280
00:17:19,339 --> 00:17:22,109
when environmental issues
began to be implemented

281
00:17:22,175 --> 00:17:24,411
in places like
the defense department.

282
00:17:24,511 --> 00:17:26,213
At the turn of the century,

283
00:17:26,313 --> 00:17:28,181
there began to be recognition

284
00:17:28,281 --> 00:17:30,950
that there was a nexus between

285
00:17:31,118 --> 00:17:33,453
what's happening
in climate change

286
00:17:33,553 --> 00:17:36,423
and national security.

287
00:17:41,128 --> 00:17:43,496
We've seen this estimation
of climate change

288
00:17:43,596 --> 00:17:45,232
as a significant risk

289
00:17:45,332 --> 00:17:47,600
since the early days of the George W.
Bush administration.

290
00:17:47,700 --> 00:17:52,139
The very first report from the
department of defense was in 2003

291
00:17:52,239 --> 00:17:54,507
and identified the potential
national security implications

292
00:17:54,607 --> 00:17:56,476
of abrupt climate change.

293
00:17:56,576 --> 00:18:00,247
I was asked to take on
this challenge directly

294
00:18:00,347 --> 00:18:03,150
in about the 2006 time frame,

295
00:18:03,250 --> 00:18:05,051
and so I gathered the nation's

296
00:18:05,152 --> 00:18:07,254
leading retired
military officers.

297
00:18:07,354 --> 00:18:11,158
As a group, we are not your
traditional environmentalists.

298
00:18:11,224 --> 00:18:13,226
CNA's military advisory board

299
00:18:13,326 --> 00:18:16,296
is a group of senior retired
admirals and generals

300
00:18:16,396 --> 00:18:19,166
from all five services that
have changed the conversation.

301
00:18:19,232 --> 00:18:21,568
The view of the military
advisory board

302
00:18:21,668 --> 00:18:25,305
is that we can't wait until
we have absolute certainty.

303
00:18:25,405 --> 00:18:29,008
If we wait,
we might wait too long.

304
00:18:29,176 --> 00:18:31,744
We released our initial report

305
00:18:31,844 --> 00:18:34,647
"national security and
the threat of climate change"

306
00:18:34,747 --> 00:18:36,349
in 2007.

307
00:18:36,449 --> 00:18:38,518
We realized that climate change

308
00:18:38,618 --> 00:18:41,554
would be a threat multiplier
for instability.

309
00:18:41,654 --> 00:18:44,791
People become desperate because
they have extreme weather

310
00:18:44,891 --> 00:18:46,493
and the seas are rising

311
00:18:46,593 --> 00:18:49,296
and there are floods in one
area and droughts in another.

312
00:18:49,396 --> 00:18:53,266
Fragile states become
more unpredictable.

313
00:18:53,366 --> 00:18:55,202
That was definitional.

314
00:18:55,268 --> 00:18:56,769
When that study came out,

315
00:18:56,869 --> 00:19:01,040
it really set a baseline for how
to talk about this issue.

316
00:19:01,208 --> 00:19:02,575
One of the key recommendations

317
00:19:02,675 --> 00:19:04,211
of the CNA report

318
00:19:04,311 --> 00:19:07,046
was to incorporate the
consequences of climate change

319
00:19:07,214 --> 00:19:09,048
into a national
intelligence estimate.

320
00:19:09,216 --> 00:19:12,118
In 2008, the idea
that came out of that report

321
00:19:12,219 --> 00:19:14,287
was climate change exacerbated

322
00:19:14,387 --> 00:19:16,088
existing societal tensions.

323
00:19:16,223 --> 00:19:18,258
Social tensions
and economic costs

324
00:19:18,358 --> 00:19:20,760
could lead to state
or regional instability

325
00:19:20,860 --> 00:19:22,662
threatening U.S. interest.

326
00:19:22,762 --> 00:19:24,431
It could contribute to inter-

327
00:19:24,531 --> 00:19:27,634
and more likely
intrastate conflicts.

328
00:19:27,734 --> 00:19:30,870
Climate change as a threat
to national security

329
00:19:30,970 --> 00:19:32,605
worked its way
into the highest-level

330
00:19:32,705 --> 00:19:35,308
strategic document produced
by the department of defense.

331
00:19:35,408 --> 00:19:36,976
The quadrennial defense review,

332
00:19:37,076 --> 00:19:38,878
the Pentagon's
bedrock strategic document,

333
00:19:38,978 --> 00:19:41,314
has consistently identified
climate change

334
00:19:41,414 --> 00:19:43,816
as an accelerant
of instability or conflict.

335
00:19:43,916 --> 00:19:45,452
It was really the first time

336
00:19:45,552 --> 00:19:48,488
that climate change was
addressed at that level.

337
00:19:48,588 --> 00:19:52,359
We now see this signed out
by the secretaries of defense.

338
00:19:52,459 --> 00:19:54,727
The climate change
adaptation road map

339
00:19:54,827 --> 00:19:57,764
identified climate change
as posing immediate risks

340
00:19:57,864 --> 00:19:59,566
to national security.

341
00:19:59,666 --> 00:20:03,370
2014, we found that
the risks of climate change

342
00:20:03,470 --> 00:20:05,204
are continuing to accelerate

343
00:20:05,305 --> 00:20:09,776
and that they are now
a catalyst for conflict.

344
00:20:09,876 --> 00:20:11,143
We've turned the corner,

345
00:20:11,244 --> 00:20:13,246
and we really see
that climate change

346
00:20:13,346 --> 00:20:16,683
is one of the big issues
of the 21st century.

347
00:20:33,700 --> 00:20:36,403
I can remember once
getting in a discussion

348
00:20:36,503 --> 00:20:39,772
with a career civilian
at the department of defense

349
00:20:39,872 --> 00:20:41,274
who was expressing concern

350
00:20:41,374 --> 00:20:42,909
about talking
about climate change

351
00:20:43,009 --> 00:20:45,445
and said we have to use language

352
00:20:45,545 --> 00:20:47,480
that doesn't, you know,
offend people,

353
00:20:47,580 --> 00:20:49,449
that doesn't say
this is really happening.

354
00:20:49,549 --> 00:20:51,284
And I just looked at him
and I said,

355
00:20:51,384 --> 00:20:54,220
"that's incompatible
with U.S. government policy,"

356
00:20:54,321 --> 00:20:56,289
and I, you know,
cited all these reports,

357
00:20:56,389 --> 00:20:57,924
and said, "you need to look"

358
00:20:58,024 --> 00:20:59,692
at what your own
government is saying

359
00:20:59,792 --> 00:21:01,794
"and work from that."

360
00:21:06,533 --> 00:21:08,635
We're gonna begin by recognizing

361
00:21:08,735 --> 00:21:09,969
where admiral David Titley

362
00:21:10,069 --> 00:21:13,373
was a member of CNA
military advisory board.

363
00:21:13,473 --> 00:21:15,708
Whenever you're ready,
please begin.

364
00:21:15,808 --> 00:21:17,444
I'm here today
not only representing

365
00:21:17,544 --> 00:21:19,779
my views on security
implications of climate change,

366
00:21:19,879 --> 00:21:23,249
but on the collective wisdom
of 16 admirals and generals.

367
00:21:23,350 --> 00:21:25,685
Sir, our collective,
bottom-line judgment

368
00:21:25,785 --> 00:21:28,388
is that climate change
is an accelerating risk

369
00:21:28,488 --> 00:21:30,457
to our nation's future.

370
00:21:30,557 --> 00:21:32,759
These serious impacts
to our security

371
00:21:32,859 --> 00:21:34,461
will only continue to increase

372
00:21:34,561 --> 00:21:36,763
in both frequency
and consequence.

373
00:21:36,863 --> 00:21:38,898
Failure to think about
how climate change

374
00:21:38,998 --> 00:21:41,668
might impact our globally
interconnected systems

375
00:21:41,768 --> 00:21:45,004
and all elements
of U.S. power and security

376
00:21:45,104 --> 00:21:47,607
is frankly a failure
of imagination.

377
00:22:11,898 --> 00:22:13,800
There's a tendency to separate

378
00:22:13,900 --> 00:22:17,437
thinking about domestic events
from international events

379
00:22:17,537 --> 00:22:20,473
as if that was a real barrier.

380
00:22:23,042 --> 00:22:24,511
What we do in this country

381
00:22:24,611 --> 00:22:27,046
has a strong impact on people
elsewhere in the world

382
00:22:27,146 --> 00:22:28,681
and vice versa.

383
00:22:28,781 --> 00:22:30,417
So you really have
to start looking

384
00:22:30,450 --> 00:22:33,586
at reciprocal interactions
between events

385
00:22:33,686 --> 00:22:35,888
in different parts of the world.

386
00:22:40,927 --> 00:22:43,563
When it comes to something
like climate change,

387
00:22:43,663 --> 00:22:46,966
you begin to worry
about phenomena

388
00:22:47,066 --> 00:22:48,568
that you weren't counting on

389
00:22:48,668 --> 00:22:51,904
kicking in at some
indeterminate level.

390
00:22:54,674 --> 00:22:56,909
Russia is on fire.

391
00:22:57,009 --> 00:22:58,811
More than 500 wildfires

392
00:22:58,911 --> 00:23:01,514
raging across
the drought-plagued country.

393
00:23:01,614 --> 00:23:03,149
The heat wave
has ravaged farm land

394
00:23:03,249 --> 00:23:04,984
and destroyed crops over an area

395
00:23:05,084 --> 00:23:06,453
the size of Portugal.

396
00:23:06,486 --> 00:23:08,455
This disaster could destroy

397
00:23:08,555 --> 00:23:11,290
one of the nation's
biggest exports, wheat.

398
00:23:11,458 --> 00:23:13,960
In 2010, there was
a major drought

399
00:23:14,060 --> 00:23:15,327
which led to heat waves

400
00:23:15,462 --> 00:23:17,664
in Russia and Ukraine
and in China,

401
00:23:17,764 --> 00:23:21,333
which really devastated the
wheat crop in those countries.

402
00:23:21,468 --> 00:23:25,004
It's the worst drought
in 200 years.

403
00:23:25,104 --> 00:23:27,106
China's in a crisis,

404
00:23:27,206 --> 00:23:29,476
but this is one
for the world to watch.

405
00:23:29,509 --> 00:23:31,544
Commodity traders have reacted

406
00:23:31,644 --> 00:23:32,745
to the fires and drought

407
00:23:32,845 --> 00:23:34,514
by pushing up the price of wheat

408
00:23:34,614 --> 00:23:36,583
to a 23-month high.

409
00:23:36,683 --> 00:23:38,585
China, Russia started buying

410
00:23:38,685 --> 00:23:40,587
a lot of wheat
on the global food market,

411
00:23:40,687 --> 00:23:44,356
drove the prices up
significantly.

412
00:23:44,491 --> 00:23:47,393
Because food is traded globally,

413
00:23:47,494 --> 00:23:49,328
food prices can be influenced

414
00:23:49,496 --> 00:23:51,998
by what's going on
all over the world.

415
00:23:52,098 --> 00:23:54,601
If you are buying bread

416
00:23:54,701 --> 00:23:58,037
in Damascus or in Cairo,

417
00:23:58,137 --> 00:24:02,174
that grain has been traded
on an international market,

418
00:24:02,274 --> 00:24:04,611
so it is sensitive
to climate fluctuations

419
00:24:04,711 --> 00:24:07,680
from Kansas,
the Southern Australia,

420
00:24:07,780 --> 00:24:11,651
and in Uruguay and Argentina.

421
00:24:11,751 --> 00:24:14,687
What happens globally matters.

422
00:24:16,923 --> 00:24:20,426
Globalization is inherently
unpredictable.

423
00:24:20,527 --> 00:24:21,628
Since agricultural commodities

424
00:24:21,728 --> 00:24:24,230
are all in one
global market now,

425
00:24:24,330 --> 00:24:26,165
what China does
when it panic-buys

426
00:24:26,265 --> 00:24:29,435
is it affects markets
all over the world.

427
00:24:29,536 --> 00:24:31,704
Large shocks
on the global food supply

428
00:24:31,804 --> 00:24:34,106
will always affect
the most vulnerable people,

429
00:24:34,206 --> 00:24:37,677
because when the prices are being
determined internationally,

430
00:24:37,777 --> 00:24:41,113
the food will go to those people
who have the most money.

431
00:24:41,213 --> 00:24:42,749
Inevitably,
the poorer of the world

432
00:24:42,849 --> 00:24:46,819
will be the ones who bear
the brunt of any shortfall.

433
00:24:48,821 --> 00:24:50,990
Now, Egypt is one
of those countries

434
00:24:51,090 --> 00:24:54,961
that's heavily dependent
on the global food market.

435
00:24:55,061 --> 00:24:57,564
With a population
of more than 80 million,

436
00:24:57,597 --> 00:24:59,899
the demand for daily bread
is high.

437
00:24:59,999 --> 00:25:03,570
It has made Egypt the world's
largest importer of wheat.

438
00:25:03,603 --> 00:25:05,572
In a number of areas
around the country,

439
00:25:05,638 --> 00:25:08,007
the price of wheat went up 300%.

440
00:25:08,107 --> 00:25:09,576
In a country that has to import

441
00:25:09,642 --> 00:25:11,578
more than half
the wheat it needs,

442
00:25:11,611 --> 00:25:14,146
flour has started to look
like gold dust.

443
00:25:14,246 --> 00:25:16,583
Russia stopped exporting wheat

444
00:25:16,683 --> 00:25:18,685
to the middle east
during that period.

445
00:25:18,785 --> 00:25:20,853
Due to abnormally high
temperatures and drought,

446
00:25:20,953 --> 00:25:23,690
I believe it is reasonable
to introduce

447
00:25:23,790 --> 00:25:26,926
a temporary ban on grain
and wheat product exports

448
00:25:27,026 --> 00:25:30,997
from the territory
of the Russian Federation.

449
00:25:31,097 --> 00:25:34,033
When they cut that wheat off,

450
00:25:34,133 --> 00:25:36,402
things became very unstable.

451
00:25:43,710 --> 00:25:46,078
This is what
popular uprising looks like.

452
00:25:48,715 --> 00:25:50,783
Protesters demanding
bread and freedom

453
00:25:50,883 --> 00:25:54,286
and calling for government
officials to step down.

454
00:25:54,386 --> 00:25:56,122
If you either don't have food

455
00:25:56,222 --> 00:25:59,859
or you have food but now you have
to pay a whole lot more for it

456
00:25:59,959 --> 00:26:02,261
and you don't have
that disposable income,

457
00:26:02,361 --> 00:26:04,631
it becomes a huge threat.

458
00:26:04,697 --> 00:26:06,465
You're probably
gonna do something about it.

459
00:26:06,633 --> 00:26:09,869
These protests seem to be
a kind of chain reaction

460
00:26:09,969 --> 00:26:12,839
across the middle east.

461
00:26:12,939 --> 00:26:16,542
For decades, anger has simmered
throughout the Arab world...

462
00:26:16,643 --> 00:26:18,144
anger over corrupt governments,

463
00:26:18,244 --> 00:26:19,946
poverty, and a lack of freedom.

464
00:26:20,046 --> 00:26:23,650
It's not just this very simple
"if a, then b."

465
00:26:23,716 --> 00:26:26,352
Climate change can be
one of the causes

466
00:26:26,452 --> 00:26:28,487
in kind of
a chain of events scenario

467
00:26:28,688 --> 00:26:30,156
like in the Arab spring

468
00:26:30,256 --> 00:26:34,727
that exacerbates an already
volatile political situation.

469
00:26:35,995 --> 00:26:39,799
Central Cairo, a battlefield.

470
00:26:39,899 --> 00:26:43,169
Bullets were flying
around Tahrir square.

471
00:26:46,372 --> 00:26:48,007
Protesters looted weapons

472
00:26:48,107 --> 00:26:50,142
and turned them on police.

473
00:26:52,812 --> 00:26:55,281
The sudden shocks
of climate change

474
00:26:55,381 --> 00:26:59,852
can lead to disruptions
and collapses.

475
00:26:59,952 --> 00:27:03,155
So you're gonna have
fragile social systems

476
00:27:03,255 --> 00:27:05,825
that just need one more shock

477
00:27:05,925 --> 00:27:08,861
to tip them over the edge
into a different configuration,

478
00:27:08,961 --> 00:27:10,763
into social breakdown, into war.

479
00:27:21,908 --> 00:27:24,043
We have had,
for a couple of generations,

480
00:27:24,143 --> 00:27:28,180
a sense that food
is not part of politics.

481
00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:30,983
This is short-term, I'm afraid.

482
00:27:31,083 --> 00:27:33,352
The problems
that we're having now

483
00:27:33,452 --> 00:27:35,154
are unfortunately
a small fore taste

484
00:27:35,254 --> 00:27:37,556
of what can happen because
of the interdependence

485
00:27:37,724 --> 00:27:40,092
of climate, economics,
and politics.

486
00:27:45,331 --> 00:27:46,799
It's generally the case

487
00:27:46,899 --> 00:27:50,169
that all societies
seem to have trouble

488
00:27:50,269 --> 00:27:53,205
thinking about the middle
and the long-term future.

489
00:27:56,075 --> 00:27:57,910
Since there is a history
of catastrophe,

490
00:27:58,010 --> 00:28:00,312
when we look at ourselves
in the present day,

491
00:28:00,412 --> 00:28:03,315
history is the only opportunity
that we have for perspective.

492
00:28:08,755 --> 00:28:11,758
When we look back
into the historical record,

493
00:28:11,858 --> 00:28:14,060
we actually see that
the collapse of civilizations,

494
00:28:14,160 --> 00:28:15,895
places like Angkor Wat,

495
00:28:15,995 --> 00:28:18,364
where whole political
systems crumbled,

496
00:28:18,464 --> 00:28:20,032
those things
seem to have occurred

497
00:28:20,132 --> 00:28:22,601
right at the same time
that really large-scale

498
00:28:22,769 --> 00:28:24,036
global climatic changes
were occurring.

499
00:28:24,136 --> 00:28:27,907
The tong dynasty and
the classic Maya civilization

500
00:28:28,007 --> 00:28:30,176
collapsed at almost
exactly the same time

501
00:28:30,276 --> 00:28:32,779
on opposite sides
of the pacific ocean.

502
00:28:32,845 --> 00:28:34,781
There was this large-scale event

503
00:28:34,881 --> 00:28:36,916
that led to systematic
drying and warming

504
00:28:37,016 --> 00:28:38,384
throughout both
of these regions,

505
00:28:38,484 --> 00:28:42,688
and two great
civilizations fell.

506
00:28:42,789 --> 00:28:45,657
There was a really coherent,
vivid picture

507
00:28:45,792 --> 00:28:48,027
about how human society
around the world

508
00:28:48,127 --> 00:28:49,128
and throughout time

509
00:28:49,228 --> 00:28:52,631
has been interacting
with the climate.

510
00:28:52,799 --> 00:28:55,101
Anywhere we look,
we see the same thing.

511
00:28:55,201 --> 00:28:57,703
It's probably one of the most
repeated findings

512
00:28:57,804 --> 00:29:01,841
in the last several years
in the field.

513
00:29:01,941 --> 00:29:03,976
Past societies could observe
crop failure,

514
00:29:04,076 --> 00:29:06,312
but they didn't know how
to explain it.

515
00:29:06,412 --> 00:29:08,915
What gives us a chance
is that we can observe

516
00:29:09,015 --> 00:29:11,383
not only local symptoms
of a problem like crop failure.

517
00:29:11,483 --> 00:29:14,053
We can also observe the entire
globe and draw conclusions.

518
00:29:14,153 --> 00:29:17,289
The question is whether we decide
we're gonna do that or not.

519
00:29:29,501 --> 00:29:31,537
Today I want to speak to you

520
00:29:31,637 --> 00:29:32,939
about the national
security risks

521
00:29:33,039 --> 00:29:36,843
posed by a changing climate.

522
00:29:36,943 --> 00:29:39,011
Just last month,
the administration issued

523
00:29:39,111 --> 00:29:42,849
its 2015
national security strategy.

524
00:29:42,949 --> 00:29:45,384
The strategy
includes climate change

525
00:29:45,484 --> 00:29:48,454
as one of eight
top strategic risks

526
00:29:48,554 --> 00:29:51,390
along with a catastrophic attack

527
00:29:51,490 --> 00:29:52,959
on the United States soil

528
00:29:53,059 --> 00:29:56,929
and the proliferation
of weapons of mass destruction.

529
00:29:57,029 --> 00:30:01,033
Climate change, once considered
an issue for a distant future,

530
00:30:01,133 --> 00:30:05,071
has moved firmly
into the present.

531
00:30:05,171 --> 00:30:07,739
We saw this
dramatically happen here

532
00:30:07,840 --> 00:30:10,843
in the United States
with super storm Sandy.

533
00:30:12,879 --> 00:30:15,982
The storm surge went over
a 12 1/2 foot wall

534
00:30:16,082 --> 00:30:19,118
protecting a electrical system

535
00:30:19,218 --> 00:30:24,090
and immediately plunged
lower Manhattan into darkness.

536
00:30:28,294 --> 00:30:29,228
Without electricity,

537
00:30:29,328 --> 00:30:31,163
our transportation
and health sectors

538
00:30:31,263 --> 00:30:33,966
began to collapse.

539
00:30:37,369 --> 00:30:39,939
We can see from events
over the last few years

540
00:30:40,039 --> 00:30:43,175
the increasing not only severity
of natural disasters,

541
00:30:43,275 --> 00:30:47,947
but the unpredictability
of their consequences.

542
00:30:48,047 --> 00:30:50,049
As our world becomes
more interconnected,

543
00:30:50,149 --> 00:30:53,319
as disasters happen in different
and unpredictable ways,

544
00:30:53,419 --> 00:30:56,322
they cause cascading impacts
through our communities,

545
00:30:56,422 --> 00:30:59,258
through our societies,
through our infrastructure.

546
00:31:01,593 --> 00:31:05,364
The potential for what we call
cascading disasters

547
00:31:05,464 --> 00:31:06,966
are much closer to home.

548
00:31:10,469 --> 00:31:12,939
We're seeing in the west
of the United States

549
00:31:13,039 --> 00:31:15,141
unprecedented drought...

550
00:31:18,044 --> 00:31:21,247
Which sparks forest fires.

551
00:31:24,016 --> 00:31:26,152
At the same time,
we might need to be responding

552
00:31:26,252 --> 00:31:29,956
to increased activity
in the arctic.

553
00:31:30,056 --> 00:31:32,959
We might be seeing
sea level rise in Florida

554
00:31:33,059 --> 00:31:34,493
and on the east coast

555
00:31:34,593 --> 00:31:37,964
interact with major storms
that might become more intense.

556
00:31:39,165 --> 00:31:41,467
And as we go forward
as the climate changes,

557
00:31:41,567 --> 00:31:45,671
we might see those things start
to happen simultaneously.

558
00:31:45,771 --> 00:31:48,407
Are we ready to deal
with multiple disasters

559
00:31:48,507 --> 00:31:50,809
at the same time
within the United States?

560
00:31:50,977 --> 00:31:53,045
That's an open question.

561
00:31:57,049 --> 00:31:58,184
We've also got to think about

562
00:31:58,284 --> 00:32:00,119
the security
of our bases at home.

563
00:32:00,219 --> 00:32:02,488
Norfolk, Virginia,
is where the vast majority

564
00:32:02,588 --> 00:32:06,125
of the U.S. Navy's Atlantic
combat capability is based.

565
00:32:06,225 --> 00:32:10,096
It's also at extreme risk
of sea level rise.

566
00:32:10,196 --> 00:32:12,264
The Hampton roads
region of my state

567
00:32:12,364 --> 00:32:14,533
is home to the largest naval
installation in the world,

568
00:32:14,633 --> 00:32:16,135
naval station Norfolk.

569
00:32:16,235 --> 00:32:18,704
Studies show
that the main Norfolk road

570
00:32:18,804 --> 00:32:20,839
into the largest naval base
in the world

571
00:32:21,007 --> 00:32:23,842
by 2040 will be inundated
by daily tides,

572
00:32:24,010 --> 00:32:25,377
not even storm surges.

573
00:32:25,477 --> 00:32:27,346
They're already raising
the level of the piers.

574
00:32:27,446 --> 00:32:29,115
At the level they're at,
they're not gonna be able

575
00:32:29,215 --> 00:32:31,417
to service the ships
that are coming in.

576
00:32:31,517 --> 00:32:34,186
This is our largest
naval base in the world.

577
00:32:34,286 --> 00:32:37,423
There's serious
considerations here.

578
00:32:37,523 --> 00:32:40,126
The welfare of Norfolk
has global implications

579
00:32:40,226 --> 00:32:41,893
because of the power
that is projected

580
00:32:42,028 --> 00:32:44,263
from that place
around the world.

581
00:32:44,363 --> 00:32:47,099
It's not just the case
where you'll deploy these forces

582
00:32:47,199 --> 00:32:49,101
in a particular conflict,

583
00:32:49,201 --> 00:32:50,402
but you'll also
have to deploy them

584
00:32:50,502 --> 00:32:52,138
to respond to catastrophic
weather events,

585
00:32:52,238 --> 00:32:54,040
and the prime example that I use

586
00:32:54,140 --> 00:32:58,044
is typhoon Haiyan
in the Philippines.

587
00:32:58,110 --> 00:33:01,447
We sent some 14,000
soldiers, sailors, airmen,

588
00:33:01,547 --> 00:33:04,550
and marines in response
to that catastrophic event.

589
00:33:04,650 --> 00:33:08,087
We were the only country
that's capable of doing that,

590
00:33:08,187 --> 00:33:09,588
of deploying
that amount of forces,

591
00:33:09,688 --> 00:33:11,190
that amount of distance.

592
00:33:11,290 --> 00:33:13,125
As the sea levels rise,

593
00:33:13,225 --> 00:33:15,061
as the storm surges increase,

594
00:33:15,127 --> 00:33:16,762
as the rain rates increase,

595
00:33:16,862 --> 00:33:18,897
it then becomes
a capacity issue.

596
00:33:19,065 --> 00:33:20,899
How much of that can you do

597
00:33:21,067 --> 00:33:23,435
before you start impacting
other missions?

598
00:33:23,535 --> 00:33:25,171
Every two weeks
the U.S. military

599
00:33:25,271 --> 00:33:26,505
now is getting
a disaster response.

600
00:33:26,605 --> 00:33:29,241
So those same sailors
leave Norfolk, Virginia,

601
00:33:29,341 --> 00:33:31,910
challenged by climate change,
challenged by sea level rise,

602
00:33:32,078 --> 00:33:33,112
sail halfway around the world,

603
00:33:33,212 --> 00:33:35,081
respond to a series of disasters

604
00:33:35,147 --> 00:33:36,382
that are related
to extreme weather events

605
00:33:36,482 --> 00:33:39,185
in the heavily populated
pacific rim,

606
00:33:39,285 --> 00:33:41,620
and on the way home they may
steam through the middle east

607
00:33:41,720 --> 00:33:43,189
where a civil war in Syria

608
00:33:43,289 --> 00:33:46,092
and now in other parts
of the region continues to rage,

609
00:33:46,158 --> 00:33:47,926
that in many ways
was accelerated by a drought

610
00:33:48,094 --> 00:33:49,195
that was worse because
of climate change.

611
00:33:49,295 --> 00:33:51,230
So they're seeing
the impacts of this

612
00:33:51,330 --> 00:33:53,599
from the time they'd get on the
boat and go on the deployment

613
00:33:53,699 --> 00:33:56,568
to the time they get home.

614
00:33:56,668 --> 00:33:59,805
We're gonna have to make an increasingly
difficult series of choices.

615
00:33:59,905 --> 00:34:01,240
We're already
making those choices

616
00:34:01,340 --> 00:34:03,209
about where to go
and where to use resources,

617
00:34:03,309 --> 00:34:06,112
when to respond and when not to.

618
00:34:28,867 --> 00:34:32,371
80% of New Orleans
underwater right now.

619
00:34:32,471 --> 00:34:35,507
I said, "we was planning on
leaving tomorrow if we could."

620
00:34:38,544 --> 00:34:41,180
There's no question
that communities

621
00:34:41,280 --> 00:34:45,717
that have fewer resources
are going to suffer more.

622
00:34:45,817 --> 00:34:47,353
If you look in this country,

623
00:34:47,453 --> 00:34:49,855
the effects
are going to be uneven.

624
00:34:49,955 --> 00:34:51,790
Some places
are going to experience

625
00:34:51,890 --> 00:34:56,462
more dramatic effects
than others.

626
00:34:56,562 --> 00:34:58,164
People trapped in buildings

627
00:34:58,197 --> 00:34:59,531
that have come down around them.

628
00:34:59,631 --> 00:35:03,169
They have made desperate calls
to 911 asking for help,

629
00:35:03,202 --> 00:35:06,272
asking for rescue,
but the rescuers can't get out.

630
00:35:06,372 --> 00:35:08,207
People are now
living in parking garages.

631
00:35:08,307 --> 00:35:10,075
Others picked up what they could

632
00:35:10,176 --> 00:35:12,344
and moved to higher ground
on the interstate,

633
00:35:12,444 --> 00:35:15,347
refugees in their own home town.

634
00:35:15,447 --> 00:35:16,882
We don't have transportation.

635
00:35:16,982 --> 00:35:18,817
I mean, we living
paycheck to paycheck.

636
00:35:18,917 --> 00:35:22,188
It ain't like we're just able
to get up and just leave.

637
00:35:22,288 --> 00:35:25,224
Those people who ignored
the evacuation orders

638
00:35:25,324 --> 00:35:28,460
are simply going to have to wait
and rescue themselves.

639
00:35:28,560 --> 00:35:30,762
Thousands of evacuees

640
00:35:30,862 --> 00:35:33,499
sought refuge
inside the super dome,

641
00:35:33,599 --> 00:35:36,202
only to be subjected
to an unspeakable

642
00:35:36,268 --> 00:35:39,037
breakdown of law and order.

643
00:35:39,205 --> 00:35:42,774
What Katrina shows is
that climate-related events

644
00:35:42,874 --> 00:35:46,745
can create massive distress
on a scale of a whole urban area

645
00:35:46,845 --> 00:35:48,214
and that that massive distress

646
00:35:48,280 --> 00:35:50,216
can involve the collapse
of state structures.

647
00:35:50,282 --> 00:35:52,251
You would never, never imagine

648
00:35:52,351 --> 00:35:54,786
what you saw in the convention
center in New Orleans.

649
00:35:54,886 --> 00:35:57,223
They are just left behind.

650
00:35:57,323 --> 00:36:01,893
There's nothing offered to them
for the last four days.

651
00:36:01,993 --> 00:36:03,295
They got children out here!

652
00:36:03,395 --> 00:36:05,063
They got pregnant
women out here!

653
00:36:05,231 --> 00:36:06,698
They won't even bring water!

654
00:36:06,798 --> 00:36:08,234
They won't bring food!

655
00:36:08,334 --> 00:36:12,271
You gotta go steal water
to drink to survive out here.

656
00:36:12,371 --> 00:36:14,105
One can try to bracket that off

657
00:36:14,240 --> 00:36:15,807
as some kind
of exceptional event,

658
00:36:15,907 --> 00:36:19,077
but in fact Katrina is
a perfectly normal demonstration

659
00:36:19,278 --> 00:36:21,347
of what actually happens.

660
00:36:21,447 --> 00:36:22,781
Drop.

661
00:36:22,881 --> 00:36:24,115
If the weather gets to the point

662
00:36:24,250 --> 00:36:26,084
where it can break down
city governments,

663
00:36:26,285 --> 00:36:27,486
and let's say it happens

664
00:36:27,586 --> 00:36:29,255
to two or three city governments
at the same time

665
00:36:29,355 --> 00:36:31,290
and federal authorities
are not only unwilling

666
00:36:31,390 --> 00:36:35,093
but unable to assist,
then you get hurricane Katrina

667
00:36:35,294 --> 00:36:36,295
on a national scale.

668
00:36:36,395 --> 00:36:39,865
We want help!
We want help!

669
00:36:39,965 --> 00:36:42,568
We want help!

670
00:37:18,470 --> 00:37:21,773
We've built society
on this implicit assumption

671
00:37:21,873 --> 00:37:25,477
of climate stability.

672
00:37:25,577 --> 00:37:29,381
Within bounds, we know
what we're gonna get.

673
00:37:31,750 --> 00:37:35,186
We know when to plant.

674
00:37:35,321 --> 00:37:37,656
We know about how much
rain is gonna come.

675
00:37:41,460 --> 00:37:44,763
Because we built our society
on this climate stability

676
00:37:44,863 --> 00:37:47,533
and that stability is changing,

677
00:37:47,633 --> 00:37:51,169
all these things
that we take for granted,

678
00:37:51,337 --> 00:37:54,673
they're not just givens anymore.

679
00:38:04,550 --> 00:38:07,052
Across the Sahel,
the crops have failed.

680
00:38:07,152 --> 00:38:10,822
Hunger is stalking
tens of millions.

681
00:38:10,922 --> 00:38:12,791
People are abandoning
their livestock

682
00:38:12,891 --> 00:38:15,193
and moving to wherever
they can find water.

683
00:38:15,361 --> 00:38:18,630
Relief workers fear if more
help doesn't come soon,

684
00:38:18,730 --> 00:38:20,566
millions will starve.

685
00:38:22,568 --> 00:38:25,270
The Sahel is
the semi-arid region

686
00:38:25,371 --> 00:38:27,506
that stretches
from the Atlantic ocean

687
00:38:27,606 --> 00:38:29,675
all the way over to Ethiopia.

688
00:38:29,775 --> 00:38:32,210
It's the transition zone
between the Sahara

689
00:38:32,378 --> 00:38:34,145
and the more humid,
forested conditions

690
00:38:34,380 --> 00:38:37,215
further south.

691
00:38:37,383 --> 00:38:39,217
That is a very
drought-prone region.

692
00:38:39,385 --> 00:38:43,389
There's a lot of people making
their livelihood off agriculture,

693
00:38:43,455 --> 00:38:45,591
and whenever there are droughts,

694
00:38:45,691 --> 00:38:48,460
it leads a lot of people
to migrate.

695
00:38:56,768 --> 00:39:00,839
The Sahel is already
a major conflict zone,

696
00:39:00,939 --> 00:39:05,477
both with Islamic militants
and also nationalists.

697
00:39:10,081 --> 00:39:12,418
This is the heart
of the problem in many ways.

698
00:39:12,484 --> 00:39:14,986
Climate change
arrives in a world

699
00:39:15,086 --> 00:39:17,689
that has already
been destabilized.

700
00:39:17,789 --> 00:39:22,528
Darfur, the world's worst
humanitarian crisis.

701
00:39:23,929 --> 00:39:26,898
More than 2 million people
forced to flee their homes

702
00:39:26,998 --> 00:39:30,536
in what's widely portrayed
as an ethnic conflict.

703
00:39:30,636 --> 00:39:34,272
But climatic changes
may also be a factor.

704
00:39:34,440 --> 00:39:37,342
This is a region
where water's getting scarcer

705
00:39:37,443 --> 00:39:39,445
and arable land shrinking,

706
00:39:39,511 --> 00:39:41,513
pitting Arab nomadic grazers

707
00:39:41,613 --> 00:39:44,516
against the predominantly
black farmers.

708
00:39:46,151 --> 00:39:49,855
A lot of the violence that is now
accelerated by climate change

709
00:39:49,955 --> 00:39:53,525
actually has its roots in these
older, deeper conflicts.

710
00:39:55,494 --> 00:39:57,128
The drought exacerbated

711
00:39:57,228 --> 00:39:59,565
existing societal cleavages.

712
00:39:59,665 --> 00:40:02,734
There it was Muslim
and Christian.

713
00:40:02,834 --> 00:40:05,637
It was the herders
versus the agrarians.

714
00:40:05,737 --> 00:40:07,439
In every case, climate change

715
00:40:07,539 --> 00:40:09,207
acted as a threat multiplier.

716
00:40:13,044 --> 00:40:15,514
The numbers from Darfur
are staggering.

717
00:40:15,614 --> 00:40:20,486
Since 2003, an estimated 400,000
people have been killed.

718
00:40:20,952 --> 00:40:24,623
Another 2 1/2 million have been
forced into refugee camps

719
00:40:24,723 --> 00:40:28,093
in neighboring
countries like Chad.

720
00:40:30,128 --> 00:40:34,332
Drought and hunger have
made communities vulnerable.

721
00:40:34,432 --> 00:40:37,402
Coups and rebellions
have made it unstable.

722
00:40:37,503 --> 00:40:39,605
This fragile state
is now threatened

723
00:40:39,705 --> 00:40:42,708
by poverty and neglect.

724
00:40:42,808 --> 00:40:45,544
Climate change unfolds
on the landscape,

725
00:40:45,644 --> 00:40:47,913
making their lives harder.

726
00:40:48,013 --> 00:40:50,516
But the poverty
that was originally there

727
00:40:50,616 --> 00:40:54,152
makes the response
to climate change worse.

728
00:40:56,454 --> 00:40:58,757
A staggering 30 million people

729
00:40:58,857 --> 00:41:01,627
are thought to survive
on lake Chad's ecosystem.

730
00:41:01,727 --> 00:41:04,863
But what was once
of the world's largest lakes

731
00:41:04,963 --> 00:41:09,735
has in just 40 years
shrunk by 90%.

732
00:41:09,835 --> 00:41:12,704
Lake Chad, where
boko haram fighters

733
00:41:12,804 --> 00:41:16,174
have launched recent attacks.

734
00:41:16,274 --> 00:41:19,811
Water scarcity has caused
migration and instability

735
00:41:19,911 --> 00:41:24,650
which boko haram has been able
to take advantage of.

736
00:41:24,750 --> 00:41:27,953
Where there is already
instability,

737
00:41:28,053 --> 00:41:30,756
extremists thrive.

738
00:41:30,856 --> 00:41:32,691
More than a million people

739
00:41:32,791 --> 00:41:35,794
have been forced to flee from
boko haram's wave of terror.

740
00:41:39,765 --> 00:41:42,333
When you look at the modeling
that's being done now

741
00:41:42,568 --> 00:41:44,570
for north Africa,

742
00:41:44,670 --> 00:41:47,773
we see significantly
more drying.

743
00:41:47,873 --> 00:41:51,142
We see significant
precipitation decline

744
00:41:51,242 --> 00:41:53,712
well beyond what it is now.

745
00:42:05,657 --> 00:42:06,958
Africa's a place where

746
00:42:07,058 --> 00:42:09,795
very large numbers
of people need more land.

747
00:42:09,895 --> 00:42:13,632
At the same time, something like
half of the unused arable land

748
00:42:13,732 --> 00:42:15,667
in the world is in Africa.

749
00:42:17,268 --> 00:42:21,607
Is colonialism taking root
in Africa once again?

750
00:42:21,707 --> 00:42:22,908
Some of the countries
on that continent

751
00:42:23,008 --> 00:42:24,776
may be the poorest in the world,

752
00:42:24,876 --> 00:42:26,612
but the lush farmlands
are the envy

753
00:42:26,678 --> 00:42:30,048
of richer nations
with infertile soil.

754
00:42:30,148 --> 00:42:32,483
We've already seen
in the not-so-distant past

755
00:42:32,618 --> 00:42:34,820
how China,
when there's a drought,

756
00:42:34,920 --> 00:42:38,624
will panic-buy
agricultural commodities.

757
00:42:38,657 --> 00:42:41,459
What if things were much worse?

758
00:42:41,627 --> 00:42:42,794
What if that same country

759
00:42:42,894 --> 00:42:44,696
thought that it doesn't
just need to panic-buy,

760
00:42:44,796 --> 00:42:49,100
it needs to buy or lease
vast territories?

761
00:42:49,200 --> 00:42:51,502
This is a scenario
which could unfold gradually

762
00:42:51,637 --> 00:42:54,673
without anyone
really seeing it coming.

763
00:42:54,773 --> 00:42:57,142
Slowly, slowly, slowly,
China controls,

764
00:42:57,242 --> 00:42:59,177
at least legally,
an awful lot of territory

765
00:42:59,277 --> 00:43:02,213
beyond its borders.

766
00:43:02,313 --> 00:43:05,817
Whether one wants to moralize
and call that a land grab,

767
00:43:05,917 --> 00:43:08,519
you can get a situation
where the local people

768
00:43:08,654 --> 00:43:10,121
could have another idea.

769
00:43:25,036 --> 00:43:26,872
If you're Chinese authorities,

770
00:43:26,972 --> 00:43:30,676
you would rather have
instability in Africa

771
00:43:30,742 --> 00:43:33,845
than instability at home.

772
00:43:51,830 --> 00:43:55,801
We take our lifestyle
as being a fixed point

773
00:43:55,901 --> 00:43:57,703
and then if anything's
going to change,

774
00:43:57,736 --> 00:43:59,971
it's gonna be something else,

775
00:44:00,071 --> 00:44:03,909
preferably something far away.

776
00:44:07,478 --> 00:44:09,748
In the United States,
although we've done the most

777
00:44:09,848 --> 00:44:11,817
to promote global warming,

778
00:44:11,917 --> 00:44:14,219
we're gonna get hit by it
after other people

779
00:44:14,319 --> 00:44:18,323
are gonna be hit by it.

780
00:44:18,423 --> 00:44:19,991
In advanced societies,

781
00:44:20,091 --> 00:44:23,361
we're very vulnerable
to confusing lifestyle

782
00:44:23,461 --> 00:44:25,997
with life itself.

783
00:45:00,766 --> 00:45:04,269
As the situation in Syria
has deteriorated sharply,

784
00:45:04,369 --> 00:45:07,438
Jordan's Za'atari camp
for Syrian refugees

785
00:45:07,538 --> 00:45:09,975
is now the size of a city.

786
00:45:15,947 --> 00:45:17,282
After leaving the army I worked

787
00:45:17,382 --> 00:45:19,450
with refugees on the ground
in the middle east,

788
00:45:19,550 --> 00:45:22,220
in Syria, Jordan, Lebanon,

789
00:45:22,320 --> 00:45:24,422
having seen what happens
when millions of people

790
00:45:24,522 --> 00:45:26,257
uproot and leave a place,

791
00:45:26,357 --> 00:45:27,893
the impact it has on them,

792
00:45:27,993 --> 00:45:31,797
the impact it has on the country
they've taken refuge in,

793
00:45:31,863 --> 00:45:33,965
this has major consequences.

794
00:45:34,065 --> 00:45:37,903
That on a massive scale where
whole nations are on the move

795
00:45:38,003 --> 00:45:40,305
may be what we're facing
in certain climate scenarios.

796
00:45:43,574 --> 00:45:44,810
The world is in the grips

797
00:45:44,910 --> 00:45:45,911
of the worst refugee crisis

798
00:45:46,011 --> 00:45:47,813
since the second world war.

799
00:45:47,879 --> 00:45:49,981
The vast majority
of those refugees

800
00:45:50,081 --> 00:45:53,284
are hosted by some of
the world's poorest countries.

801
00:45:57,823 --> 00:46:00,191
This camp is just overwhelmed

802
00:46:00,291 --> 00:46:02,894
by the amount
of people coming here.

803
00:46:05,130 --> 00:46:08,266
For the refugees, it's been
a litany of killings,

804
00:46:08,366 --> 00:46:11,169
kidnappings, hunger,
and economic chaos.

805
00:46:12,838 --> 00:46:14,739
The U.N.'S refugee agency

806
00:46:14,840 --> 00:46:18,509
estimates the current total
at almost 60 million.

807
00:46:18,609 --> 00:46:21,679
Shockingly, half are children.

808
00:46:21,847 --> 00:46:23,949
We don't have the resources

809
00:46:24,049 --> 00:46:27,585
to support all the victims
of conflict around the world.

810
00:46:27,685 --> 00:46:31,556
We are no longer
able to pick up the pieces.

811
00:46:33,424 --> 00:46:35,226
The loss of livelihood

812
00:46:35,326 --> 00:46:38,897
is definitely
a human security risk.

813
00:46:38,997 --> 00:46:40,298
In certain situations,

814
00:46:40,398 --> 00:46:43,334
it can become an international
security risk.

815
00:46:50,876 --> 00:46:54,512
A desperate search for nearly
1,000 people feared dead

816
00:46:54,612 --> 00:46:56,181
after a ship
packed with migrants

817
00:46:56,281 --> 00:46:58,216
capsized in
the Mediterranean sea.

818
00:46:58,316 --> 00:47:01,953
It is the latest in a string
of deadly migrant boat sinkings.

819
00:47:02,053 --> 00:47:04,722
Refugees fleeing Isis
and other militants

820
00:47:04,890 --> 00:47:06,892
trying desperately
to cross into Europe.

821
00:47:06,992 --> 00:47:08,293
Italy's coast guard and Navy

822
00:47:08,393 --> 00:47:11,262
rescued 11,000 people
from the Mediterranean

823
00:47:11,362 --> 00:47:13,899
in the last week alone.

824
00:47:13,965 --> 00:47:16,534
Europe is suffering
a major migration crisis

825
00:47:16,634 --> 00:47:19,037
because of
the conflicts in Syria,

826
00:47:19,137 --> 00:47:22,140
the wider middle east,
and east Africa.

827
00:47:22,240 --> 00:47:25,343
They've been arriving
by the boatloads

828
00:47:25,443 --> 00:47:27,212
on European shores daily.

829
00:47:27,312 --> 00:47:30,081
Now the head of the U.N.'S
refugee agency

830
00:47:30,181 --> 00:47:33,084
is calling the migrant crisis
in the Mediterranean

831
00:47:33,184 --> 00:47:35,753
total chaos.

832
00:47:35,921 --> 00:47:37,222
They're willing
to risk their lives

833
00:47:37,322 --> 00:47:39,790
and their family lives
to get to Europe.

834
00:47:39,991 --> 00:47:41,192
That's pretty desperate.

835
00:47:43,028 --> 00:47:44,429
It's a refugee crisis

836
00:47:44,529 --> 00:47:48,833
with no precedent
in the European union's history.

837
00:47:48,934 --> 00:47:51,836
As their numbers spiral
along with the death count,

838
00:47:51,937 --> 00:47:54,973
Europe is under
acute pressure to act.

839
00:47:57,242 --> 00:47:59,844
Tensions are at boiling point.

840
00:47:59,945 --> 00:48:01,479
Macedonia closed its border.

841
00:48:01,579 --> 00:48:04,649
Special forces fired
stun grenades into the crowd.

842
00:48:04,749 --> 00:48:07,352
The E.U.'S response
has been criticized

843
00:48:07,452 --> 00:48:11,957
as at best incoherent and at
worst callous and inhumane.

844
00:48:12,023 --> 00:48:14,960
We're gonna put in more fencing,
more resources.

845
00:48:14,993 --> 00:48:16,995
The politics
of the armed lifeboat

846
00:48:17,095 --> 00:48:18,863
refers to an acknowledgement

847
00:48:18,964 --> 00:48:20,265
that, yes, there is a crisis,

848
00:48:20,365 --> 00:48:23,969
but, no, we are not
all in it together.

849
00:48:24,002 --> 00:48:28,006
We have to keep the victims
of this crisis out

850
00:48:28,106 --> 00:48:32,410
so we can carry on as before
on the other side of the wall.

851
00:48:35,180 --> 00:48:39,617
What's alarming
is the behavior of people

852
00:48:39,717 --> 00:48:43,088
in extreme circumstances

853
00:48:43,188 --> 00:48:45,223
taking the risks they do.

854
00:48:48,159 --> 00:48:52,263
People in countries
where instability was reigning,

855
00:48:52,363 --> 00:48:56,267
they feel that they have
no other choice.

856
00:48:56,367 --> 00:48:59,104
With the continuing turmoil
in the middle east,

857
00:48:59,204 --> 00:49:02,440
the number of desperate people
willing to risk everything

858
00:49:02,540 --> 00:49:04,209
is expected to rise.

859
00:49:13,184 --> 00:49:14,352
Okay?

860
00:49:15,053 --> 00:49:17,122
When we really step back,

861
00:49:17,222 --> 00:49:19,224
people are pretty much the same.

862
00:49:19,324 --> 00:49:23,394
We want adequate food,
adequate shelter,

863
00:49:23,494 --> 00:49:25,196
safe water.

864
00:49:25,296 --> 00:49:29,034
If you have large numbers
of displaced people

865
00:49:29,100 --> 00:49:32,070
and their needs
are not being met,

866
00:49:32,170 --> 00:49:35,640
then this becomes
a potential for instability.

867
00:50:23,888 --> 00:50:26,591
Who is a climate refugee
and who is an economic refugee?

868
00:50:26,691 --> 00:50:29,060
It's impossible to say.

869
00:50:29,160 --> 00:50:31,529
The two things
are bound up together.

870
00:50:34,332 --> 00:50:38,069
Most climate refugees
are not displaced

871
00:50:38,169 --> 00:50:41,072
so clearly by climate change.

872
00:50:41,172 --> 00:50:43,308
Rather it's a mix of forces

873
00:50:43,408 --> 00:50:46,644
that drives them off the land.

874
00:50:46,744 --> 00:50:48,079
Under international law,

875
00:50:48,179 --> 00:50:52,083
there is no status
of climate refugee.

876
00:50:52,183 --> 00:50:54,285
Part of this is political.

877
00:50:54,385 --> 00:50:55,786
Because if there were,

878
00:50:55,886 --> 00:50:57,388
then it would compel nations

879
00:50:57,488 --> 00:51:00,491
to accept climate migrants
as asylees.

880
00:51:04,662 --> 00:51:07,765
The longer
that climate change goes on,

881
00:51:07,865 --> 00:51:09,767
the more that we feel it,

882
00:51:09,867 --> 00:51:11,469
the more that we experience it,

883
00:51:11,569 --> 00:51:15,140
people are gonna
wanna come north.

884
00:51:15,240 --> 00:51:19,043
The only border which is real
is the atmosphere.

885
00:51:19,144 --> 00:51:21,212
Everything else is permeable.

886
00:51:46,671 --> 00:51:49,507
Linear thinking says
that if you have

887
00:51:49,607 --> 00:51:52,277
a change of a certain magnitude
in a system,

888
00:51:52,377 --> 00:51:57,182
you can predict the change
in its output.

889
00:51:57,215 --> 00:52:00,017
Non-linearity says
relatively small changes

890
00:52:00,185 --> 00:52:03,954
can lead to very large
and unpredictable circumstances

891
00:52:04,189 --> 00:52:07,057
on the output side.

892
00:52:07,192 --> 00:52:10,195
Let's suppose that the rate
of which the climate is changing

893
00:52:10,261 --> 00:52:12,663
is not linear but is on a curve

894
00:52:12,763 --> 00:52:14,232
that's getting very steep.

895
00:52:16,767 --> 00:52:19,704
Take the rate at which
arctic ice is melting,

896
00:52:21,839 --> 00:52:25,610
the rate at which
the glaciers are retreating.

897
00:52:25,710 --> 00:52:28,045
At the beginning
of these processes,

898
00:52:28,213 --> 00:52:29,447
you create a graph.

899
00:52:29,547 --> 00:52:31,616
If I start measuring over time,

900
00:52:31,716 --> 00:52:34,952
I keep on discovering
things are happening faster

901
00:52:35,220 --> 00:52:38,055
than you might expect.

902
00:52:38,223 --> 00:52:39,690
And all of our old projections

903
00:52:39,790 --> 00:52:43,428
turn out to be
excessively conservative.

904
00:52:50,601 --> 00:52:52,370
I worry about a discrepancy

905
00:52:52,470 --> 00:52:53,671
between the rate at which

906
00:52:53,771 --> 00:52:56,241
we set out
to deal with these things

907
00:52:56,307 --> 00:52:58,843
and the rate at which
they are occurring.

908
00:53:04,315 --> 00:53:05,383
What keeps me up at night

909
00:53:05,483 --> 00:53:06,884
is a problem
of compounding risk.

910
00:53:06,984 --> 00:53:08,586
A good example is Bangladesh.

911
00:53:12,022 --> 00:53:16,361
Bangladesh is probably the
ground zero of climate change.

912
00:53:16,461 --> 00:53:18,663
The impacts are going
to be more severe

913
00:53:18,763 --> 00:53:21,131
in Bangladesh
than many other countries

914
00:53:21,266 --> 00:53:23,734
where they have
smaller population size.

915
00:53:26,271 --> 00:53:29,374
In a climate scenario
where sea level rise occurs,

916
00:53:29,474 --> 00:53:31,376
especially if it occurs rapidly,

917
00:53:31,476 --> 00:53:32,910
there's a real risk

918
00:53:33,010 --> 00:53:35,413
that a large portion
of the Bangladeshi population

919
00:53:35,513 --> 00:53:36,881
is gonna have to move.

920
00:53:39,350 --> 00:53:41,852
The sea level will continue
to rise in the coming years,

921
00:53:41,952 --> 00:53:45,690
because there is melting
at a faster rate than ever.

922
00:53:45,790 --> 00:53:49,360
If there is a one-meter
sea level rise,

923
00:53:49,460 --> 00:53:52,997
Bangladesh will lose about
20% of its land mass.

924
00:53:55,300 --> 00:53:57,868
We are going to see a very large

925
00:53:57,968 --> 00:54:01,406
climate refugee population.

926
00:54:01,506 --> 00:54:03,441
Researchers have
estimated the numbers

927
00:54:03,541 --> 00:54:05,610
to be about 30 million.

928
00:54:07,378 --> 00:54:11,416
This is a humanitarian crisis
of epic proportions.

929
00:54:13,484 --> 00:54:16,421
Where are these refugees
going to go?

930
00:54:18,989 --> 00:54:22,660
India has already
unilaterally fenced Bangladesh

931
00:54:22,760 --> 00:54:24,795
on all three sides.

932
00:54:28,333 --> 00:54:29,934
A ten-foot, double-sided,

933
00:54:30,034 --> 00:54:34,505
razor-wire-topped, what may be
the world's first climate fence.

934
00:54:34,605 --> 00:54:38,175
It's inspired by Israel's wall
in the west bank,

935
00:54:38,343 --> 00:54:41,612
and it's manned by 80,000
Indian guards.

936
00:54:41,712 --> 00:54:44,148
Death can be the penalty
for crossing it

937
00:54:44,349 --> 00:54:45,816
or even going near it,

938
00:54:45,916 --> 00:54:48,353
with hundreds of unarmed
villagers killed

939
00:54:48,386 --> 00:54:53,157
along what is now one of the most
dangerous frontiers in the world.

940
00:54:54,024 --> 00:54:55,693
There are other reasons
for India to build that fence,

941
00:54:55,793 --> 00:54:58,363
but probably the most pressing
and strategic reason

942
00:54:58,396 --> 00:55:01,699
is to forestall
that climate migration.

943
00:55:01,799 --> 00:55:04,602
No factor can be excluded

944
00:55:04,702 --> 00:55:06,871
from the impacts
of climate change.

945
00:55:06,971 --> 00:55:11,241
We have got to see the
consequences of the consequences.

946
00:55:11,376 --> 00:55:14,044
We are going to see
multiple stressors

947
00:55:14,144 --> 00:55:17,382
coming at one point at one time.

948
00:55:17,415 --> 00:55:20,184
Stress on the water sector,
food sector,

949
00:55:20,385 --> 00:55:23,053
physical infrastructure,

950
00:55:23,153 --> 00:55:26,457
that could lead
to a state collapse.

951
00:55:27,658 --> 00:55:29,894
It will be a problem
of the magnitude

952
00:55:29,994 --> 00:55:32,897
that will destabilize
not only Bangladesh,

953
00:55:32,997 --> 00:55:37,234
but it will severely impact
on international stability,

954
00:55:37,402 --> 00:55:40,805
having consequences
beyond imagination.

955
00:55:44,842 --> 00:55:47,845
We don't now have the luxury,
and we probably never will,

956
00:55:47,945 --> 00:55:50,415
of sort of isolating
one driver of a situation

957
00:55:50,515 --> 00:55:53,451
and saying, "okay, let's solve
for that driver."

958
00:55:55,620 --> 00:55:57,555
We're always going to be
dealing with a layer cake

959
00:55:57,655 --> 00:55:59,490
of inter-connected problems.

960
00:56:02,427 --> 00:56:03,861
So if you have
a climate-change scenario

961
00:56:03,961 --> 00:56:06,831
that's sufficient to raise
the sea level in Bangladesh,

962
00:56:06,931 --> 00:56:09,434
what is that
temperature spike doing

963
00:56:09,534 --> 00:56:10,735
to the Himalayan ice caps

964
00:56:10,835 --> 00:56:12,770
that supply
the annual water cycle

965
00:56:12,870 --> 00:56:15,105
for most of
the agricultural production

966
00:56:15,205 --> 00:56:18,543
in the Asian-pacific region?

967
00:56:18,643 --> 00:56:21,746
So now you've got potential
drought and food scarcity

968
00:56:21,846 --> 00:56:23,681
in one area that's intersecting

969
00:56:23,781 --> 00:56:27,552
with flooding and massive
refugee flows in the other area.

970
00:56:31,922 --> 00:56:34,725
What's the political
situation when it happens?

971
00:56:36,894 --> 00:56:40,465
If India and China are continuing
to have a border dispute

972
00:56:40,531 --> 00:56:42,567
during this period of time,

973
00:56:42,667 --> 00:56:45,703
that border dispute just got
a lot more serious.

974
00:56:45,803 --> 00:56:47,672
This is something
that could place

975
00:56:47,772 --> 00:56:49,974
massive stress
on the international system.

976
00:56:53,911 --> 00:56:56,481
It's these compounding
risk factors,

977
00:56:56,547 --> 00:56:57,748
these compounding dynamics

978
00:56:57,848 --> 00:56:59,684
that I think ought
to really concern us.

979
00:57:03,621 --> 00:57:05,523
If you look at issues
of water flow

980
00:57:05,623 --> 00:57:07,592
from the Himalayan plateau,

981
00:57:07,692 --> 00:57:09,727
there are countries that
are on the receiving end

982
00:57:09,827 --> 00:57:12,830
of those flows of water
that are nuclear-armed.

983
00:57:15,700 --> 00:57:19,604
If the supply of water
becomes increasingly tight,

984
00:57:19,704 --> 00:57:24,509
then if somebody decides
to build a dam on their side,

985
00:57:24,542 --> 00:57:26,944
that can look to somebody
on the losing end

986
00:57:27,044 --> 00:57:28,913
like an act of war.

987
00:57:35,085 --> 00:57:39,389
The risk of any conflict
in the modern world

988
00:57:39,590 --> 00:57:41,792
is magnified by the fact

989
00:57:41,892 --> 00:57:46,030
that at the end
of a chain of escalation,

990
00:57:46,130 --> 00:57:48,432
you might arrive at countries

991
00:57:48,533 --> 00:57:51,602
that have weapons
of mass destruction.

992
00:58:33,578 --> 00:58:37,948
Our entire way of life
is based on fossil fuels.

993
00:58:41,886 --> 00:58:44,755
Everything that you use
and touch in your daily life

994
00:58:44,855 --> 00:58:47,024
in this highly-advanced economy

995
00:58:47,124 --> 00:58:50,795
is moved to you
using that single source.

996
00:58:56,801 --> 00:58:59,637
There's absolutely a link

997
00:58:59,737 --> 00:59:03,941
between the way we use energy
and our security.

998
00:59:08,345 --> 00:59:12,449
Oil is a globally-traded
commodity.

999
00:59:12,617 --> 00:59:15,152
Events around the world
impact the supply

1000
00:59:15,252 --> 00:59:17,688
and the price here at home.

1001
00:59:17,788 --> 00:59:19,624
When Geo-political
decisions are made,

1002
00:59:19,657 --> 00:59:22,459
the price can go down,
the price can go up.

1003
00:59:22,627 --> 00:59:25,162
Many of our relationships
with autocracies

1004
00:59:25,262 --> 00:59:28,398
have been based in part
on assuring the supply

1005
00:59:28,633 --> 00:59:32,002
of fossil fuels.

1006
00:59:32,102 --> 00:59:33,771
We spend a tremendous
amount of time

1007
00:59:33,871 --> 00:59:37,875
keeping that
global supply flowing,

1008
00:59:37,975 --> 00:59:38,943
protecting it.

1009
00:59:41,245 --> 00:59:42,713
The threats are being ramped up

1010
00:59:42,813 --> 00:59:44,481
over a vital oil shipping route

1011
00:59:44,649 --> 00:59:46,316
which Iran
is threatening to block.

1012
00:59:46,416 --> 00:59:47,484
The strait of Hormuz

1013
00:59:47,652 --> 00:59:48,953
links the oil-producing states

1014
00:59:49,053 --> 00:59:51,488
of Bahrain, Kuwait,
Qatar, Saudi Arabia,

1015
00:59:51,656 --> 00:59:53,090
and the United Arab Emirates.

1016
00:59:53,190 --> 00:59:56,493
That's about 40% of the world's
oil that's shipped.

1017
00:59:56,661 --> 00:59:58,663
It's a major artery.

1018
00:59:58,729 --> 01:00:00,497
We spend $85 billion a year

1019
01:00:00,665 --> 01:00:02,700
defending strategic
choke points,

1020
01:00:02,800 --> 01:00:04,769
places like the straits
of Harmuz near Iran

1021
01:00:04,869 --> 01:00:06,003
or the straits of Malacca

1022
01:00:06,103 --> 01:00:08,806
in the heavily-contested
south China sea.

1023
01:00:08,906 --> 01:00:11,075
Real disruption would have

1024
01:00:11,175 --> 01:00:13,811
catastrophic consequences
for our economy.

1025
01:00:13,911 --> 01:00:17,514
Energy and natural resources

1026
01:00:17,614 --> 01:00:19,183
creates the arena for conflict

1027
01:00:19,283 --> 01:00:22,586
and defining what the playing
field will look like.

1028
01:00:22,687 --> 01:00:26,791
Climate change
is in that mix of causes.

1029
01:00:26,891 --> 01:00:30,695
In some cases,
it's changing the map itself.

1030
01:00:30,795 --> 01:00:32,663
Melting ice caps in the arctic

1031
01:00:32,763 --> 01:00:34,932
have ignited a military buildup.

1032
01:00:35,032 --> 01:00:38,035
The arctic circle
is believed to contain 30%

1033
01:00:38,135 --> 01:00:40,270
of the world's
undiscovered natural gas

1034
01:00:40,370 --> 01:00:42,539
and 15% of its oil.

1035
01:00:42,639 --> 01:00:45,575
As the ice melts,
it opens up resources.

1036
01:00:45,776 --> 01:00:47,611
It opens up trade routes.

1037
01:00:47,712 --> 01:00:49,146
It opens up land claims

1038
01:00:49,246 --> 01:00:52,282
that could become
more contentious.

1039
01:00:52,382 --> 01:00:55,185
Russia is making
a very bold move,

1040
01:00:55,285 --> 01:00:58,055
planting its flag
on the arctic sea floor.

1041
01:00:58,155 --> 01:01:00,157
Russia is holding
military exercises

1042
01:01:00,257 --> 01:01:02,392
involving tens
of thousands of troops.

1043
01:01:02,492 --> 01:01:06,163
It's disputed territory with
the United States and Canada.

1044
01:01:06,263 --> 01:01:10,801
Many fear a 21st-century
cold war in the frozen waters.

1045
01:01:13,738 --> 01:01:17,742
I'm honored to welcome three
former secretaries of state.

1046
01:01:17,842 --> 01:01:21,111
We've started a project
on the arctic.

1047
01:01:21,211 --> 01:01:23,080
There's a new ocean
being created there.

1048
01:01:23,180 --> 01:01:26,350
That hasn't happened
since the last ice age.

1049
01:01:26,450 --> 01:01:30,220
There are big melts all over
the world taking place.

1050
01:01:30,320 --> 01:01:32,289
The climate's changing.

1051
01:01:32,389 --> 01:01:34,825
And there are consequences.

1052
01:01:37,161 --> 01:01:40,931
If you say there's no connection
between security and climate,

1053
01:01:41,031 --> 01:01:43,934
or between oil
and our national security,

1054
01:01:44,034 --> 01:01:45,302
if you served
in these conflicts,

1055
01:01:45,402 --> 01:01:46,871
if you fought a war
in the middle east,

1056
01:01:46,971 --> 01:01:48,072
if you fought
in a burning oil field,

1057
01:01:48,172 --> 01:01:51,141
you might have a different view.

1058
01:01:53,778 --> 01:01:54,945
Convoy be advised,

1059
01:01:55,045 --> 01:01:57,314
border patrol vehicle
on the left-hand side.

1060
01:01:59,183 --> 01:02:01,919
My first deployment,
I was a young lieutenant

1061
01:02:02,019 --> 01:02:05,222
with an infantry unit in Iraq

1062
01:02:05,322 --> 01:02:06,423
south of Baghdad

1063
01:02:06,523 --> 01:02:08,092
in an area that was saturated

1064
01:02:08,192 --> 01:02:10,828
with improvised
explosive devices.

1065
01:02:13,831 --> 01:02:16,834
It came to be known
as the triangle of death.

1066
01:02:16,934 --> 01:02:18,803
That American military unit

1067
01:02:18,869 --> 01:02:20,437
on the ground
in Iraq or Afghanistan

1068
01:02:20,537 --> 01:02:22,639
has got to rely on a fuel supply

1069
01:02:22,807 --> 01:02:23,841
that comes a great distance

1070
01:02:23,941 --> 01:02:26,944
at risk and cost to reach them.

1071
01:02:27,044 --> 01:02:28,913
Every day, a logistics convoy

1072
01:02:29,013 --> 01:02:30,680
would have to leave
Baghdad airport

1073
01:02:30,815 --> 01:02:34,084
and drive to our
forward operating base.

1074
01:02:34,184 --> 01:02:36,921
We were taking the fuel from
the previous day's delivery,

1075
01:02:37,021 --> 01:02:39,089
putting it in a bunch
of Bradley fighting vehicles,

1076
01:02:39,189 --> 01:02:42,459
going out to escort the convoy
in with that fuel,

1077
01:02:42,559 --> 01:02:44,061
using a lot of the fuel,

1078
01:02:44,161 --> 01:02:45,830
and then putting
the next day's fuel

1079
01:02:45,863 --> 01:02:47,898
right in the Bradleys
to do all over again.

1080
01:02:47,998 --> 01:02:51,035
We took this highly
capable combat force

1081
01:02:51,135 --> 01:02:53,437
and turned it into, basically,
a self-licking ice cream cone.

1082
01:03:07,918 --> 01:03:12,022
Is hit.
Is down.

1083
01:03:12,122 --> 01:03:13,891
Almost every day,

1084
01:03:13,991 --> 01:03:16,426
that convoy was attacked.

1085
01:03:36,146 --> 01:03:39,449
Next, we're going to hear
from Mr. Michael Breen,

1086
01:03:39,549 --> 01:03:40,951
who is the executive director

1087
01:03:41,051 --> 01:03:43,287
of the Truman
national security project.

1088
01:03:43,387 --> 01:03:44,889
- Welcome, sir.
- Thank you, Mr. chairman.

1089
01:03:44,989 --> 01:03:46,356
Chairman Marquis,
ranking member Brasso,

1090
01:03:46,456 --> 01:03:48,758
thank you for the opportunity
to testify today.

1091
01:03:48,893 --> 01:03:51,028
Although we find ourselves in a
considerably better position

1092
01:03:51,128 --> 01:03:53,097
with regard to energy
than that of several years ago,

1093
01:03:53,197 --> 01:03:55,966
the lack of diversified
energy sources around the world

1094
01:03:56,066 --> 01:03:57,401
continues to create
vulnerabilities

1095
01:03:57,501 --> 01:04:00,470
for the United States
and our allies.

1096
01:04:00,570 --> 01:04:04,108
In addition, climate change makes our
current energy system unsustainable,

1097
01:04:04,208 --> 01:04:08,913
creating cascading risks
and impacts around the globe.

1098
01:04:08,946 --> 01:04:10,614
The U.S. should place
greater emphasis

1099
01:04:10,714 --> 01:04:14,919
on efficiency along with the
development of renewable sources,

1100
01:04:15,019 --> 01:04:17,988
and more resilient
distributed energy systems.

1101
01:04:20,524 --> 01:04:21,926
The department of defense

1102
01:04:21,992 --> 01:04:23,928
is one of the largest
customers in the world,

1103
01:04:23,961 --> 01:04:26,530
so when the department
invests in technologies

1104
01:04:26,630 --> 01:04:27,797
that are still very immature,

1105
01:04:27,932 --> 01:04:29,199
they're taking a very long view

1106
01:04:29,299 --> 01:04:30,935
of what they're going to need
in the future.

1107
01:04:31,001 --> 01:04:33,270
Those long-term investments
do have a great benefit

1108
01:04:33,370 --> 01:04:35,205
often for the civilian economy.

1109
01:04:35,305 --> 01:04:37,641
If the military had settled
on compass technology

1110
01:04:37,741 --> 01:04:39,209
as the perfect answer
to navigation,

1111
01:04:39,309 --> 01:04:41,078
we never would have had GPS.

1112
01:04:41,178 --> 01:04:42,446
So to stay ahead of the curve,

1113
01:04:42,546 --> 01:04:44,348
we have to keep investing.

1114
01:04:44,448 --> 01:04:47,517
And one of the things
I get asked in hearings

1115
01:04:47,617 --> 01:04:50,254
defending the budget is,
"is this the right time

1116
01:04:50,354 --> 01:04:54,158
to be investing in stuff
like alternative energy?"

1117
01:04:54,258 --> 01:04:59,029
And my response is,
"we can't afford not to now."

1118
01:04:59,129 --> 01:05:00,364
Secretary of the Navy

1119
01:05:00,464 --> 01:05:02,299
Ray Mabus took part
in signing a contract

1120
01:05:02,399 --> 01:05:05,235
for the largest biofuel
purchase in government history.

1121
01:05:05,335 --> 01:05:07,071
In the next ten years,
the air force academy

1122
01:05:07,171 --> 01:05:09,439
plans to generate
all of their own electricity

1123
01:05:09,539 --> 01:05:13,377
through renewable sources.

1124
01:05:13,477 --> 01:05:16,981
I'm encouraged that the military
is continuing to contribute

1125
01:05:17,081 --> 01:05:20,985
to the development
of new technologies,

1126
01:05:21,018 --> 01:05:24,454
but I don't think we can
be complacent about this.

1127
01:05:24,554 --> 01:05:25,990
Our military in the U.S.,

1128
01:05:26,023 --> 01:05:27,657
every military,
is ultimately in the business

1129
01:05:27,757 --> 01:05:31,996
of preventing, hopefully,
or prosecuting and winning wars,

1130
01:05:32,997 --> 01:05:36,833
and war is a destructive
human activity.

1131
01:05:37,001 --> 01:05:39,369
Militaries are not
gonna solve this for us.

1132
01:05:39,469 --> 01:05:42,339
An armored division is not
gonna defeat climate change.

1133
01:05:45,175 --> 01:05:47,011
You don't wanna turn
to your military

1134
01:05:47,111 --> 01:05:49,646
to solve what are really
civil society problems.

1135
01:05:49,746 --> 01:05:53,050
That's a dangerous game.

1136
01:05:53,150 --> 01:05:57,154
They do need to understand
how it all fits together,

1137
01:05:57,254 --> 01:06:00,590
because that's gonna affect
what they need to be ready for,

1138
01:06:02,592 --> 01:06:05,129
but that doesn't mean
it's their mission to fix it.

1139
01:06:23,113 --> 01:06:24,414
What keeps me up at night

1140
01:06:24,514 --> 01:06:28,385
is the possibility
that we'll have a world

1141
01:06:28,485 --> 01:06:31,288
where the risks associated
with climate change

1142
01:06:31,388 --> 01:06:35,959
are so dire and so
potentially unmanageable

1143
01:06:36,060 --> 01:06:39,196
that governments
start acting in ways

1144
01:06:39,296 --> 01:06:41,731
that are authoritarian.

1145
01:06:45,269 --> 01:06:49,073
That's a world
that I don't wanna live in.

1146
01:06:49,139 --> 01:06:53,277
That's a world I don't want
my children to live in.

1147
01:06:53,377 --> 01:06:56,213
And it's a world
that we see in these scenarios

1148
01:06:56,313 --> 01:06:59,349
that the United States
military produces.

1149
01:07:05,889 --> 01:07:08,125
We're at war with the most
dangerous enemy

1150
01:07:08,225 --> 01:07:09,526
that has ever faced mankind

1151
01:07:09,626 --> 01:07:12,096
in his long climb
from the swamp to the stars,

1152
01:07:12,162 --> 01:07:14,364
and it's been said
if we lose that war

1153
01:07:14,464 --> 01:07:17,234
and in so doing lose
this way of freedom of ours,

1154
01:07:17,334 --> 01:07:19,436
history will record
with the greatest astonishment

1155
01:07:19,536 --> 01:07:21,338
that those
who had the most to lose

1156
01:07:21,438 --> 01:07:23,707
did the least
to prevent its happening.

1157
01:07:27,611 --> 01:07:31,215
We spent billions of dollars
of our GDP during the cold war

1158
01:07:31,315 --> 01:07:35,185
to reduce the threat
of nuclear attack,

1159
01:07:35,285 --> 01:07:40,157
which is low probability
but very high consequence.

1160
01:07:41,658 --> 01:07:44,694
Now we face risks
from climate change

1161
01:07:44,794 --> 01:07:49,199
that are arguably as severe
and of higher probability,

1162
01:07:50,500 --> 01:07:53,670
and yet there is
in some quarters

1163
01:07:53,770 --> 01:07:56,306
a reluctance to face up
to the challenges

1164
01:07:56,406 --> 01:07:58,542
and build a resilient society.

1165
01:08:01,245 --> 01:08:03,347
Whether it's threats
from nuclear weapons

1166
01:08:03,447 --> 01:08:05,349
or international
terrorist organizations,

1167
01:08:05,449 --> 01:08:08,585
any percentage is unacceptable.

1168
01:08:12,156 --> 01:08:13,690
When you think
about climate change

1169
01:08:13,790 --> 01:08:15,392
as a risk-management issue,

1170
01:08:15,492 --> 01:08:18,728
then all of the actions
we need to take

1171
01:08:18,828 --> 01:08:21,198
are going to be on the table.

1172
01:08:22,532 --> 01:08:24,834
If we don't, then we're
going to have to make

1173
01:08:24,934 --> 01:08:27,537
some very, very
difficult choices.

1174
01:08:31,441 --> 01:08:34,211
Where can we make ourselves
more resilient?

1175
01:08:34,311 --> 01:08:36,380
Where can we make ourselves
more prepared?

1176
01:08:36,480 --> 01:08:39,015
Where can we act now
in order to mitigate

1177
01:08:39,183 --> 01:08:40,584
the consequences of decisions

1178
01:08:40,684 --> 01:08:42,619
that were made since
the industrial revolution?

1179
01:08:50,560 --> 01:08:53,830
There's a difficult truth
we've gotta face here.

1180
01:08:53,930 --> 01:08:57,567
As we've seen rising
awareness of the problem,

1181
01:08:57,667 --> 01:09:01,671
we've continued to accelerate
our contribution.

1182
01:09:08,212 --> 01:09:09,746
Reversing that may be

1183
01:09:09,846 --> 01:09:11,748
the most difficult
collective-action problem

1184
01:09:11,848 --> 01:09:13,717
we've ever faced.

1185
01:09:16,386 --> 01:09:19,055
I do think the biggest threat
is climate change

1186
01:09:19,223 --> 01:09:21,591
and its national
security aspects.

1187
01:09:21,691 --> 01:09:25,729
Our problem is that not everything
can be handled militarily,

1188
01:09:25,829 --> 01:09:29,233
and that we also have
a short attention span.

1189
01:09:29,299 --> 01:09:32,502
These are very
long-term problems.

1190
01:09:32,602 --> 01:09:35,305
This is a whole
of society issue.

1191
01:09:35,405 --> 01:09:39,243
We have to address it
in all of our institutions.

1192
01:09:39,276 --> 01:09:42,612
That means
all aspects of government.

1193
01:09:42,712 --> 01:09:46,149
It means the resources
and the political will.

1194
01:09:46,250 --> 01:09:48,518
It is a matter of cooperating,

1195
01:09:48,618 --> 01:09:49,953
and if you look at these issues,

1196
01:09:50,053 --> 01:09:52,356
it will require
American leadership

1197
01:09:52,456 --> 01:09:56,260
within a system that other
countries play a part in.

1198
01:09:58,462 --> 01:09:59,896
We have to lead.

1199
01:09:59,996 --> 01:10:01,398
The industrialized countries,

1200
01:10:01,498 --> 01:10:02,899
we're the ones who are doing

1201
01:10:02,999 --> 01:10:05,101
the vast majority of
the polluting here in the world.

1202
01:10:05,201 --> 01:10:06,770
We gotta step up to this.

1203
01:10:06,870 --> 01:10:10,574
Every aspect of national
security is about managing risk.

1204
01:10:10,674 --> 01:10:12,242
Our politicians in my opinion

1205
01:10:12,342 --> 01:10:13,777
should take a lesson
from the military.

1206
01:10:13,877 --> 01:10:17,614
They should start prudent
action to reduce emissions.

1207
01:10:17,714 --> 01:10:20,750
Congress won't lead
on this issue,

1208
01:10:20,850 --> 01:10:23,453
but they can be led.

1209
01:10:23,553 --> 01:10:27,291
That's why I continue to go
around and talk about this issue.

1210
01:10:29,058 --> 01:10:32,095
We need to find policy solutions

1211
01:10:32,296 --> 01:10:35,865
that can deal with it.

1212
01:10:35,965 --> 01:10:38,768
One of the things that I find
personally really distressing,

1213
01:10:38,868 --> 01:10:41,338
having worked
for Republicans and democrats,

1214
01:10:41,438 --> 01:10:44,341
is that something that should be
a point of convergence

1215
01:10:44,441 --> 01:10:46,376
has become so divisive.

1216
01:10:46,476 --> 01:10:48,612
This polarization has allowed us

1217
01:10:48,712 --> 01:10:52,749
to not really address
what we really need to do.

1218
01:10:52,849 --> 01:10:56,453
Resilience and improving
our ability to respond,

1219
01:10:56,553 --> 01:10:59,656
those are the least
that we should be doing.

1220
01:10:59,756 --> 01:11:02,992
That's, in military parlance,
the first line of defense.

1221
01:11:08,898 --> 01:11:10,334
One of the first things
they ever taught me

1222
01:11:10,434 --> 01:11:11,668
as a combat leader

1223
01:11:11,768 --> 01:11:13,337
was choosing to do nothing
is a choice.

1224
01:11:13,403 --> 01:11:15,238
Inaction is as much
of a decision

1225
01:11:15,339 --> 01:11:16,440
as any other course of action,

1226
01:11:16,540 --> 01:11:18,975
and it carries
those consequences.

1227
01:11:32,356 --> 01:11:33,757
It's a very dangerous thing

1228
01:11:33,857 --> 01:11:37,861
to decide that there is one
and only one line of events

1229
01:11:37,961 --> 01:11:39,496
heading into the future

1230
01:11:39,596 --> 01:11:43,633
and one and only one best
response for dealing with that.

1231
01:11:46,836 --> 01:11:50,707
When systems become invested
in an old way of thinking,

1232
01:11:50,807 --> 01:11:54,511
there is a moment
when those structures

1233
01:11:54,611 --> 01:11:56,446
start to break down.

1234
01:11:56,546 --> 01:11:59,215
The system resists
the idea of change

1235
01:11:59,416 --> 01:12:00,684
to a certain point,

1236
01:12:00,784 --> 01:12:03,286
and then the weight
of collective experience

1237
01:12:03,387 --> 01:12:05,522
says "something's
not working here."

1238
01:12:05,622 --> 01:12:07,090
We need a change."

1239
01:12:08,958 --> 01:12:13,296
I don't think you get
to that moment by slow degrees.

1240
01:12:13,397 --> 01:12:17,667
I think it occurs
like an avalanche.

1241
01:12:17,767 --> 01:12:20,203
And there comes a moment
when you have to know

1242
01:12:20,404 --> 01:12:22,772
when to change course.

1243
01:12:26,676 --> 01:12:28,712
Even as we spend
all of our time talking

1244
01:12:28,812 --> 01:12:31,981
about what humans are capable
of doing in a negative sense,

1245
01:12:32,081 --> 01:12:34,217
we don't know the limits
of what we're capable of doing

1246
01:12:34,418 --> 01:12:35,452
in a positive sense.

1247
01:12:35,552 --> 01:12:39,523
We haven't found that either.

1248
01:12:39,623 --> 01:12:41,758
The general drift
is in the wrong direction.

1249
01:12:41,858 --> 01:12:44,828
We have an awful lot of things
that we should be afraid of.

1250
01:12:44,928 --> 01:12:47,096
The window of action is closing.

1251
01:12:47,196 --> 01:12:49,566
But there wouldn't be any point
talking about all of this

1252
01:12:49,666 --> 01:12:51,468
if we didn't have
the knowledge which we do,

1253
01:12:51,568 --> 01:12:53,002
if we didn't have
the tools which we do,

1254
01:12:53,102 --> 01:12:55,472
and if we didn't have
unpredictable potential,

1255
01:12:55,572 --> 01:12:58,107
which we also do.

1256
01:12:58,207 --> 01:13:00,977
What people need
more than a fright

1257
01:13:01,077 --> 01:13:05,148
is some credible description
of a way out of the problem.

1258
01:13:13,122 --> 01:13:14,924
Energy independence
fundamentally

1259
01:13:15,024 --> 01:13:17,360
is about the ability
to meet our energy needs

1260
01:13:17,461 --> 01:13:21,465
from within our own borders
indefinitely.

1261
01:13:21,531 --> 01:13:25,101
There's no more
American concept than that,

1262
01:13:25,201 --> 01:13:28,104
and that means taking control
of our energy future

1263
01:13:28,204 --> 01:13:31,641
and investing in alternatives
to our current system.

1264
01:13:36,780 --> 01:13:39,816
The flip side
of the climate threat

1265
01:13:39,916 --> 01:13:43,186
is the energy
and resilience opportunity.

1266
01:13:46,956 --> 01:13:49,893
The more diversified we are
in our energy sources,

1267
01:13:49,993 --> 01:13:52,095
from a whole array of renewables

1268
01:13:52,195 --> 01:13:54,030
to innovative technologies,

1269
01:13:54,130 --> 01:13:56,666
the sounder and stronger
and more secure we will be.

1270
01:13:59,503 --> 01:14:00,537
One of the things we've seen

1271
01:14:00,637 --> 01:14:02,506
is a whole generation
of veterans

1272
01:14:02,572 --> 01:14:04,708
who have come back
from the conflicts

1273
01:14:04,808 --> 01:14:06,375
in Iraq and Afghanistan

1274
01:14:06,510 --> 01:14:09,513
with a very deep, personal
understanding of this challenge.

1275
01:14:12,816 --> 01:14:13,950
We've seen returning veterans

1276
01:14:14,050 --> 01:14:15,919
go into the renewable
energy industry,

1277
01:14:16,019 --> 01:14:20,757
installing solar panels
and starting companies.

1278
01:14:20,857 --> 01:14:23,527
They see not only
the technology of the future,

1279
01:14:23,593 --> 01:14:25,529
but they also see a mission.

1280
01:14:25,595 --> 01:14:28,532
They see a continuation
of public service

1281
01:14:28,598 --> 01:14:29,899
that drove them
to raise their hand

1282
01:14:29,999 --> 01:14:32,168
and volunteer to put on
the uniform in the first place.

1283
01:14:35,939 --> 01:14:39,208
We did not end the Stone age
because we ran out of stones.

1284
01:14:39,308 --> 01:14:40,677
We found something better.

1285
01:14:43,212 --> 01:14:45,214
Winston Churchill
is alleged to have said

1286
01:14:45,314 --> 01:14:48,852
that Americans can always be
counted on to do the right thing

1287
01:14:48,952 --> 01:14:51,888
after exhausting
every other possibility.

1288
01:14:51,988 --> 01:14:54,558
We're getting towards
the end of exhausting

1289
01:14:54,658 --> 01:14:57,060
all those other possibilities.

1290
01:14:57,160 --> 01:14:58,795
The response to climate change

1291
01:14:58,895 --> 01:15:03,667
involves a type
of industrial revolution.

1292
01:15:03,767 --> 01:15:07,737
We need to leave behind
the technologies

1293
01:15:07,837 --> 01:15:09,138
based on fossil fuels

1294
01:15:09,238 --> 01:15:13,577
and shift towards
a clean-tech renaissance.

1295
01:15:14,578 --> 01:15:18,481
The path forward already exists.

1296
01:15:18,582 --> 01:15:22,586
If you look at the rate at which
the technology is improving,

1297
01:15:22,652 --> 01:15:27,456
this actually
is an economic boon.

1298
01:15:27,591 --> 01:15:29,258
Doing what we should proactively

1299
01:15:29,358 --> 01:15:30,594
to deal with climate change

1300
01:15:30,660 --> 01:15:32,629
becomes part of the solution set

1301
01:15:32,729 --> 01:15:34,163
to what we should
be doing proactively

1302
01:15:34,263 --> 01:15:36,866
to deal with the economic
strength of the country.

1303
01:15:40,003 --> 01:15:41,671
These are the plays
that are gonna define

1304
01:15:41,771 --> 01:15:44,473
the 21st century either way.

1305
01:15:44,608 --> 01:15:47,276
We'll improve our security and
we'll improve our way of life.

1306
01:15:47,376 --> 01:15:49,245
We'll improve our economy.

1307
01:15:49,345 --> 01:15:52,081
We may also head off one
of the largest risks we face.

1308
01:15:52,181 --> 01:15:55,318
The most important thing
is for people to see

1309
01:15:55,418 --> 01:16:00,189
how actually tangible and, like,
within possible grasp

1310
01:16:00,289 --> 01:16:03,026
this change is.

1311
01:16:48,672 --> 01:16:53,342
I don't think that humanity
is guaranteed a pass

1312
01:16:53,442 --> 01:16:57,013
out of the problems that
it is creating for itself.

1313
01:17:00,984 --> 01:17:05,221
If we fail, then it is possible
that we can never again,

1314
01:17:05,321 --> 01:17:08,557
at any price,
obtain the kind of future

1315
01:17:08,692 --> 01:17:12,128
that we may be able to secure
for ourselves if we succeed.

1316
01:17:17,701 --> 01:17:21,705
The technological means
are in hand.

1317
01:17:21,805 --> 01:17:24,974
The wealth exists.

1318
01:17:25,074 --> 01:17:27,276
The question always is
is whether or not

1319
01:17:27,376 --> 01:17:30,046
the wisdom exists.

1320
01:17:43,893 --> 01:17:46,062
In any strategic system,

1321
01:17:46,162 --> 01:17:49,332
time is the most
precious resource.

1322
01:17:52,301 --> 01:17:55,805
It's the one thing
that cannot be replenished.